Key Facts
- Turnout: An estimated 46.4% of registered voters had voted by 14:00 CET (9:00 a.m. ET).
- 2023 pace: At the same hour in December 2023, 32.2% had voted, so turnout is 14.2 points higher.
- Official count: The election commission counted 34.55% by 12:00 CET, excluding Kosovo, against 21.33% in 2023.
- Polls: Open until 20:00 CET (3:00 p.m. ET) for 250 seats and about 6.45 million registered voters.
- Prediction markets: Kalshi prices a 49% chance the Student List wins at least 46% of votes (9:39 a.m. ET).
Turnout in Serbia’s snap parliamentary election reached an estimated 46.4% of registered voters by 14:00 CET (9:00 a.m. ET), according to polling firm Ipsos and the monitoring group CeSID. At the same hour in December 2023, 32.2% had voted.
Serbians are choosing all 250 seats of the National Assembly on Sunday 25 October, in a contest between President Aleksandar Vučić’s ruling camp and a student-led list. Read our 1 p.m. turnout report, our noon report and our election-day report for the background.
Turnout Runs 14 Points Ahead of 2023
The estimate is 14.2 percentage points above the 2023 pace, and the figure rose from 27.3% at 11:00 CET, the same two institutes said. About 6.45 million citizens are registered to vote, and the last parliamentary election drew 58.77% in the end.
The official count was taken two hours earlier. The Republic Electoral Commission (RIK), the state body that runs the vote, counted 34.55% by 12:00 CET, excluding Kosovo, against 21.33% at noon in 2023.
How the Estimate Is Made
Ipsos is an international polling firm, and CeSID is a Serbian group that monitors elections. They base the figure on a sample of polling stations, not on the full count.
An estimate like this can differ from the official count, which RIK publishes later. We use it as a guide to participation, not as a result.
What Prediction Markets Say
At 9:39 a.m. ET on 25 October, Kalshi priced the Student List at 73% to win at least 38% of the vote, 49% for at least 46% and 21% for at least 50%. About 18,300 contracts had traded across the market’s thresholds, and some thresholds trade thinly.
Kalshi is regulated in the US by the CFTC, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. These prices are traded bets, not polls, and they move with every trade.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
If you follow European politics from the United States, a turnout this high suggests many Serbians see this vote as decisive. It may shape how Serbia balances its ties with the European Union, Russia and China.
Turnout does not show which list voters chose, so treat it as a sign of interest, not of the winner. If you plan to travel to Serbia, check your government’s travel advice, because gatherings around the count are possible in Belgrade.
What Is Not Known
The final turnout and the winner are unknown. Polls close at 20:00 CET (3:00 p.m. ET), and only RIK publishes the official result.
Nothing yet shows which list is ahead. Projections are expected only after polls close, and they are not official results.
Sources
The Rio Times Serbia election updates · Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia · Blic · NIS TV · Klix.ba · Kalshi
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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Frequently Asked Questions
What was Serbia’s turnout by 2 p.m.?
Ipsos and CeSID estimated that 46.4% of registered voters had voted by 14:00 CET (9:00 a.m. ET) on 25 October 2026. It is an estimate from a sample of polling stations, not the official count.
How does turnout compare with 2023?
At the same hour in the December 2023 election, 32.2% had voted, so this year’s estimate is 14.2 points higher. Final turnout in 2023 was 58.77%.
When do polls close in Serbia’s election?
Polls close at 20:00 CET on Sunday 25 October 2026, which is 3:00 p.m. ET. Only the Republic Electoral Commission publishes the official result.
What do prediction markets say about the vote?
At 9:39 a.m. ET, Kalshi priced a 49% chance that the Student List wins at least 46% of the vote. These are traded bets, not polls or forecasts.
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