On October 25, Brazilians will return to the polls for the second round of the presidential election. The results will matter not only for the future of country itself, but also for the region and the world.
Alongside Canada and Mexico, Brazil, under the leadership of current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is one of the few countries in the region that has stood up to Donald Trump’s meddling and interference attempts.
The rise of the far right
Under Lula, Brazil still serves as a bulwark against the imposition of right-wing populist agendas critics say run counter to the broader interests of local societies, but cater to the interests of certain domestic elites. It is within this context that we must consider the Brazilian election alongside other electoral processes in the democratic world.
Many Trump-style leaders have recently come to power in the continent. The Economist compiled descriptive statistics to try to capture the trend. According to the publication, in 2023 there were two or three presidents aligned with Trump in the region. Today there are 11. If elected, Flávio Bolsonaro – son of jailed former president Jair Bolsonaro – would be the 12th. Should that happen, the alignment of South and Central America with the current US administration would be further advanced.
Peripheral realism
One theoretical school...