In-form Afghanistan heavy favourites in tri-series final against Zimbabwe

Big picture: Zimbabwe look to turn things around

Afghanistan will walk out as favourites against Zimbabwe in the ODI tri-series final in Sharjah, which is hosting its first ODI tournament final after 23 years. Afghanistan have comfortably won both round-robin matches over the week, trampling Zimbabwe and Bangladesh with bat and ball.

Afghanistan crushed Bangladesh in their last match, beating them by seven wickets with 87 balls to spare. Their fast bowlers, Yamin Ahmadzai and Azmatullah Omarzai, cracked open the Bangladesh top order before Rashid Khan ran through the lower order. There was support from the rest of the bowling attack but to have most of the work done before Rashid could open his account was a huge credit to the side.

Batting-wise too, it wasn't a one- or two-man show. Afghanistan have several established batters who are proficient in the format. Ibrahim Zadran has been among the runs, while Zimbabwe would be wary of Sediqullah Atal's new-found penchant for big runs: Atal scored a century against Zimbabwe on Monday after his match-saving fourth-innings heroics against Bangladesh in the one-off Test last week.

Rahmat Shah and Hashmatullah Shahidi have warmed up well for the final with unbeaten knocks against Bangladesh. And Zimbabwe must be aware that Rahmanullah Gurbaz hasn't gotten going yet, while the allrounders - Omarzai, Mohammad Nabi and Rashid - haven't had to make substantial contributions with the bat yet.

All of this, of course, doesn't mean Zimbabwe are in the final just to make up the numbers. Sikandar Raza's side also dominated Bangladesh, with Craig Ervine and Brendan Taylor scoring important half-centuries. Ervine should return for the final after missing out against Afghanistan, while Zimbabwe will expect their top three - Brian Bennett, Ben Curran and Tafadzwa Tsiga - to fire after not doing much in the two outings.

Their bowling is what makes Zimbabwe tough opponents. Blessing Muzarabani and Brad Evans have the skills and experience, and Ernest Masuku has shown that his energy can be handy when others aren't taking the wickets. Raza and Wellington Masakadza would be expected to bowl their full quota of overs too.

Zimbabwe will hope to find gaps in Afghanistan's armour, but at the moment, those are mostly invisible.

Form guide

Afghanistan: WWWWW (last five completed ODIs, most recent first)
Zimbabwe LWLLL

In the spotlight: Rashid Khan and Sikandar Raza

The final could come down to Rashid Khan bowling his two spells, irrespective of whether Afghanistan bat or bowl first. He has taken four wickets each in the two round-robin matches. Zimbabwe have struggled to get Rashid away, particularly having lost early wickets, and it could play out similarly in the final.

Sikandar Raza has to be the one to stop Rashid. Raza has faced Rashid the most in ODIs among the Zimbabwe batters. He has also got out the most - seven times - to Rashid, but has struck Rashid for the most boundaries. He will be expected to rally his side with the bat, especially if there is another top-order failure, while also contributing with the ball.

Team news: Craig Ervine expected to return

Afghanistan should retain the XI that had worked for them so far.

Afghanistan (probable): 1 Rahmanullah Gurbaz (wk), 2 Ibrahim Zadran, 3 Sediqullah Atal, 4 Rahmat Shah (capt), 5 Hashmatullah Shahidi, 6 Azmatullah Omarzai, 7 Mohammad Nabi, 8 Rashid Khan, 9 AM Ghazanfar, 10 Yamin Ahmadzai, 11 Fazalhaq Farooqi

Craig Ervine's return will strengthen the middle order, but might they be tempted to send him back to No. 3, where newcomer Tsiga has struggled?

Zimbabwe (probable): 1 Brian Bennett, 2 Ben Curran, 3 Tafadzwa Tsiga, 4 Brendan Taylor (wk), 5 Craig Ervine, 6 Sikandar Raza (capt), 7 Wessly Madhevere, 8 Brad Evans, 9 Wellington Masakadza, 10 Ernest Masuku, 11 Blessing Muzarabani

Pitch and conditions

While the toss is important, Sharjah's short boundaries will be a release for batters regardless of who bats first and who chases. It is expected to be hot and humid, as is usual at this time of the year.

Stats and trivia

Quotes

"I think all things are equal when you come into a final. It's not an easy game. So we need to turn up, we need to play our best cricket. As Zimbabwe showed in their first game against Bangladesh, they've got some very experienced players in the side and they can put in big performances. So we'll be treating them with a lot of respect."
Afghanistan coach Richard Pybus.