Have you missed the playoffs? We sure have. It’s been a week since the Dream swept the Liberty and the Valkyries took care of the defending-champion Aces with ease.
Since then, Atlanta finally decided on a home for the WNBA Finals (thankfully they landed the big spot), Dream guard Allisha Gray had a minor procedure on her left hand and Valkyries coach Natalie Nakase realized that maybe she’s been a little too excited to watch film lately.
With the 2026 WNBA Finals set to tip off at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, it’s time for some predictions. So, who will win it all for the first time in franchise history? Will it be the history-making second-year expansion team? Or the side that hasn’t been this deep in the playoffs in over a decade? Our experts make their picks.
What was the biggest surprise of the first two rounds?
Clare Brennan: Isobel Borlase. The Dream rookie was an impact bench player for Atlanta through the regular season, but she has stepped up in her first WNBA playoff run. With Allisha Gray sidelined through most of the semifinals with a finger injury, the Dream needed to get the most out of their reserves, and Borlase delivered. She was three-for-five from beyond the arc in Game 2 of the semifinals, logging 11 points and four rebounds against the Liberty. Borlase’s physicality was crucial in slowing down New York, and will be critical again against a dogged Valkyries side.
Dan Falkenheim: Olivia Miles’s benching. Sure, in hindsight, there may have been reasons to expect that the Lynx and Miles would stumble. Minnesota had just the eighth-best net rating since August. Miles had two of her worst nights from the field during the last four games leading into the postseason, and she had dealt with a calf injury right before the start of the playoffs. Still, nothing could have predicted how far removed Miles looked from the player who finished second in MVP voting, which prompted coach Cheryl Reeve to sit Miles for the final 16 minutes of a do-or-die elimination game. It was hard to believe.
Blake Silverman: The fact that we already know we’re going to get a first-time champion! I could’ve seen one first-time title hopeful in the finals, but not two. That meant every team besides the Valkyries and the Dream had to go down (the Wings won championships as the Detroit Shock before the franchise moved to Tulsa and then Dallas). Atlanta made a few trips to the finals in the franchise’s early years, but never got the job done. I’m excited to see a new city celebrate a WNBA title, especially during this massive wave of expansion.
What’s your bold prediction for the Finals?
Brennan: Megan Thee Stallion will come to Atlanta to support Angel Reese. Maybe the famous triple threat will even perform at a game? A girl can dream! Reese made a surprise appearance at Megan Thee Stallion’s 2024 Lollapalooza set, and the two have publicly supported each other on social media over the years. “Everyone knows Angel Reese is my girl,” Megan Thee Stallion told USA Today in March. With the Atlanta games moved to State Farm Arena, there is plenty of room for someone of Megan Thee Stallion’s star wattage.
Falkenheim: Every game will be decided by one possession. The Dream will walk into Ballhalla as mere 2.5-point underdogs and the series is projected to be a coin flip, and oddsmakers aren’t dumb. Grit is a strong suit of both of these teams and neither will let the other waltz to an easy victory.
Silverman: We get the first seven-game series in WNBA finals history. The league only shifted to a best-of-seven format for the final round last season, which was spoiled by the Aces’ sweep of the Mercury. The Dream and the Valkyries match up well, two defensive-minded teams that should go back and forth. Atlanta is a little better on offense, while Golden State is a little better on defense. I can see the Dream stealing one or two games at the Chase Center to open up the series, which would set us up for a heckuva series.
Who will win Finals MVP?
Brennan: Jordin Canada. The Dream look like a runaway train, and that is largely due to Canada’s spectacular playoff performance. She blazed past the Liberty, set the tempo, and beat New York with speed and precision. Canada is excellent at getting downhill and driving to the basket and, on the other end, is a lockdown perimeter defender. Atlanta will need her at her best to contain the Valkyries’ prolific guards. While the Dream may have a slight frontcourt edge, Canada could be the difference-maker, helping Atlanta space the floor with her much-improved 50% three-point percentage this postseason.
Falkenheim: Gabby Williams. When all is said and done, this series might not have a clear MVP candidate. It’s easy to envision different ways this series could play out where the award could tip toward Williams, Veronica Burton, Angel Reese, Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray and Canada. There are two factors that make me lean toward Williams: her defense and shot-making. The Valkyries often put Williams on Howard during the regular season, and making Howard’s life difficult would go a long way toward helping Golden State win the title. Williams has also made big shots this postseason, and she’s the Valkyries’ go-to option in clutch moments. Those are two key ingredients for winning a finals MVP. (I’ll sneak a bonus pick in and say it will be Reese if the Dream win.)
Silverman: Gabby Williams. Spoiler alert, I like the Valkyries and if they win, Williams is my top MVP candidate. Maybe it could be Kayla Thornton if she continues her hot streak from the final two games of the series with the Aces. Maybe Burton, too, who’s had an incredible season. Like Dan said, though, Williams’s combo of impeccable defense coupled with her scoring ability makes her my frontrunner if Golden State comes out on top. She does it all and has been an incredible scorer from all three levels thus far in the playoffs. And I don’t see that stopping. (I’ll take the same liberty as Dan, since neither he or Clare took my pick if the Dream win: Howard.)
Who will win the 2026 crown?
Brennan: Dream in six. The Valkyries may have home-court advantage and a regular-season sweep of the Dream under their belts, but Atlanta is playing on another frequency. DeWanna Bonner has been a key addition (the team is 10–0 since her debut), and the reserves have stepped up since Gray’s injury. This will be a tight series, with these two tough, defensive-minded teams more than willing to grind it out. I think these Finals will come down to the minutiae, and I give the Dream the slightest edge there.
Falkenheim: Valkyries in seven. Let’s start with the Dream. To add more color to the winning streak Clare mentioned: Atlanta has had a +16.0 net rating in the half-court during that 10-game stretch. That is far better than their regular season number (-3.0). The Dream have the personnel and coaching to be that kind of team, and it’s arguable that they should have been that good all season long. But some of that is luck. Opponents are shooting below league average from three, and the Dream are shooting above it. (The Dream are allowing a lower two-point percentage in their recent stretch, which is less luck driven.)
Atlanta likely sits somewhere between their regular season numbers and their recent stretch—maybe even closer to the latter—but it’s hard to project anything forward against the Valkyries’ lockdown defense, especially when the Dream shot under 40% in all three of their regular season losses to Golden State. In those games, Williams led the Valkyries in scoring twice. Burton led the team once. Different players took turns helping out. Kiah Stokes, Tiffany Hayes and Kaitlyn Chen combined for 38 in one win. Thornton and Cecilia Zandalasini scored 31 in another. Janelle Salaün led the bench with 14 in the last of the team’s contests.
Therein lies the Valkyries’ strength. They can suffocate your offense and overwhelm you with waves of impact players on the other end. There’s no break. And if they happen to roll a lucky shooting night of their own from beyond the arc? Ask the Wings what that feels like. While I think that the Valkyries have a slight edge, the series should be a fight. The Dream have played this well and Howard has yet to go truly supernova. What happens if her, Canada and Gray are firing on all cylinders together, and Reese does what she does in the paint? That won’t be fun for Golden State, to put it mildly.
All of that’s to say one thing: I can’t wait to watch this series.
Silverman: Valkyries in seven. Dan and I are on the same page here. For me, I just can’t get over the Valkyries’ sweep of the Aces to make the finals in just the franchise’s second season. Atlanta’s winning streak is legit. The Dream are clicking at the right time, but Golden State is too. The Valks have impressed all season and are 18–4 since the calendar flipped to August. Defense is their calling card and when you can minimize A’ja Wilson and the Aces, especially like Golden State did in Game 1, I think the Valkyries can do that against anyone.
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