The super PAC controlled by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) is sending up to $9 million to a group backing Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan's U.S. Senate race, The New York Times reported Wednesday, with the money timed to stay out of public filings until after Election Day.
The Times, citing two people with knowledge of the group's plans, said the United Democracy Project (UDP) would send the money to the Great Lakes Conservatives Fund, a super PAC dedicated to supporting Rogers. It went out after an October 14 deadline that would have required disclosure before Election Day.
It's the biggest late-money move of the race, and it comes just before Michigan opens early in-person voting on Saturday. Two months ago, Rogers' allies asked AIPAC to keep its name out of the contest. And on Wednesday, the same day the Times story broke, AIPAC announced that it will stop endorsing candidates or making direct contributions through its PAC.
Rogers' Democratic opponent, Abdul El-Sayed, brought it up on the debate stage that night. While discussing Rogers' initial support for the Iran war, he cited the Times story: "But that's what you get when you have an AIPAC-backed politician."
Newsweek reached out to the Rogers and El-Sayed campaigns, AIPAC and the Great Lakes Conservatives Fund for comment via email.
Mike Rogers vs. Abdul El-Sayed: Latest Polls
El-Sayed leads in nearly every recent poll, usually by a small margin.
Marist's latest survey of 1,185 Michigan registered voters, taken October 15-18, found El-Sayed at 50 percent and Rogers at 48 percent among likely voters. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. Widen the lens to all registered voters and El-Sayed is up 7, and among independents likely to vote, he leads 50 percent to 44 percent.
In September, Marist had El-Sayed ahead 51 percent to 44 percent among likely voters, so the gap has narrowed.
InsiderAdvantage surveyed 1,200 likely voters October 9-10 and found El-Sayed at 48 percent, Rogers at 46 percent and 5 percent undecided. Quantus Insights had it closer still, 48 percent to 47 percent among 744 likely voters on October 5-6. YouGov's larger sample of 3,947 likely voters showed El-Sayed ahead 49 percent to 48 percent.
RealClearPolitics averages it out to El-Sayed +2.
Silver Bulletin, Nate Silver's forecast, puts El-Sayed's chances of beating Rogers at 80 percent, HuffPost reported. The betting markets are a bit less bullish. As of October 17, Polymarket priced El-Sayed's chances at 71 percent and Kalshi was at 68 percent.
"The race could tighten, perhaps dramatically," Mitchell Research & Communications warned in early October, when its own poll had El-Sayed up about 4 points.
Latest Developments in the Michigan Senate Race
Wednesday's debate at WXYZ-TV in Southfield, Michigan, was the final one. Police funding, Social Security, voter ID and education all came up during the event.
El-Sayed spent much of it tying Rogers to President Donald Trump, and Rogers kept painting his rival's progressive agenda as too extreme for Michigan. At one point, El-Sayed suggested that viewers play MAGA bingo with Rogers' answers. Rogers countered that El-Sayed deserved a bingo card of his own, for every time he said Trump.
The Iran war produced some of the sharpest exchanges, with El-Sayed accusing Rogers of "having cheered this war all along."
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"We're doing exceptionally well with Jewish Democrats who are literally afraid," Rogers said of his opponent. He came back to it in his closing statement, listing Jews among several Democratic groups he said were defecting to him because they found El-Sayed too extreme.
Talking with reporters afterward, Rogers denied engaging in Islamophobia, then repeated false claims tying El-Sayed to a terrorist organization, presenting no evidence. El-Sayed, who would be the first Muslim in the Senate, called Rogers' questioning of his commitment to the U.S. Constitution "shameful."
El-Sayed's campaign brought on a Jewish outreach director this week, according to the Jewish Telegraphic Agency.
AIPAC's Last-Minute $9M Bet on Mike Rogers
AIPAC's super PAC poured $33 million into the Democratic primary attacking El-Sayed and backing Michigan Representative Haley Stevens, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact. He beat Stevens anyway, by less than a percentage point.
Democratic strategist Doug Gordon told Newsweek that Stevens' loss showed AIPAC "how toxic their brand has become within Democratic politics."
AIPAC made clear afterward that it was staying in. Spokesperson Deryn Sousa told Axios that its members were "highly motivated to be involved in this race."
The Rogers campaign had other ideas, at least about how it should look. Axios reported in August that his allies had asked AIPAC not to run ads for him, setting off a rupture with the group.
The worry was simple: AIPAC had been El-Sayed's favorite foil in the primary, and Rogers' team didn't want to hand it back to him. They pitched AIPAC donors on giving to a pro-Rogers super PAC or a joint fundraising operation with national Republicans.
Wednesday's reported transfer goes through exactly that kind of pro-Rogers super PAC, and AIPAC's name won't be on the ads.
By the first debate, on October 8, Rogers had loosened up. Asked about the Axios story, he said he would welcome AIPAC, adding: "I'll take all of that help." UDP soon put nearly $100,000 into mailers attacking El-Sayed, who wrote on X that Rogers "is in trouble when he begs AIPAC to start spending against me."
Meanwhile, AIPAC is stepping back from the more visible side of campaign politics. No more endorsements, no more direct PAC contributions and no more earmarked donations, a reversal of the strategy it adopted in 2021. The letter to members, first reported by Jewish Insider, said the group would "prioritize increasing direct, organized contributions from individual Americans to candidates."
The super PAC stays. UDP can take unlimited donations and spend unlimited amounts, and Sousa called it "one of the most important tools that AIPAC members use" in comments to The Washington Sun.
Through September 30, AIPAC had given nearly $25 million to candidates and political committees in 2026, FEC filings show. UDP gave $13 million more and spent $53.5 million on independent expenditures on top of that.
In some Democratic primaries, the AIPAC label has turned into baggage amid the war in the Gaza Strip, with candidates attacking rivals for taking its support and some lawmakers swearing off money tied to the group. Operatives in both parties, though, have long thought Michigan would come down to the economy more than Israel.
"Israel will continue to be a dividing line in Democratic politics," Jim Kessler, executive vice president for policy at the centrist think tank Third Way, told Newsweek.
Why Is the Michigan Senate Race Important in the 2026 Midterms?
The Michigan seat opened when Democratic Senator Gary Peters said in early 2025 that he wouldn't run for a third term. Trump won Michigan in 2024, making it one of only two states he carried where Democrats are defending a Senate seat this year, along with Jon Ossoff in Georgia.
Michigan hasn't sent a Republican to the Senate since 1994. Rogers nearly did it two years ago, losing narrowly to Democrat Elissa Slotkin for the state's other seat. Republicans hold the Senate 53-47. For Democrats to flip it, they need a net gain of four.
Early in-person voting runs from October 24 through November 1. As of Tuesday, 789,476 absentee ballots of more than 2.1 million requested had been returned, according to the Michigan Secretary of State's office.
Because the UDP money went out after the October 14 cutoff, voters may not see it on paper until the next filing comes out, after polls close on November 3.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Dave Siminoff.