The correlation between Bitcoin and US Treasury real yields has reached a record positive level, challenging assumptions about how the cryptocurrency behaves in investment portfolios. Research from Fidelity Digital Assets, published on October 15, 2026, puts the relationship between Bitcoin’s market capitalization and inflation-adjusted 10-year Treasury yields at above 0.6.
Key takeaways
- Fidelity’s record reading reverses a historically weak or negative relationship.
- The research links the shift to pressure on US public finances.
- Bitcoin and 10-year Treasury rates both rose over the report’s preceding two months.
According to Crypto Briefing, the findings connect the shift to growing fiscal concerns, with US federal debt exceeding $40 trillion. The research suggests investors may be responding to those pressures by turning to Bitcoin, whose supply and issuance rules differ from government debt.
Bitcoin’s US Treasury correlation breaks with its past
Bitcoin’s relationship with Treasury yields was previously negative or near zero. Fidelity’s reading places it firmly in positive territory, marking a departure from that historical pattern.
The distinction between Treasury yields and real yields is important here. Real yields account for inflation, showing what lenders earn after adjusting for changes in purchasing power. Fidelity measured Bitcoin’s market capitalization against this inflation-adjusted rate on 10-year US Treasury bonds—not against bond prices.
Fiscal pressures underpin Fidelity’s explanation
Fidelity attributes the changing relationship to macroeconomic pressures, particularly mounting US debt and deficits. Interest on federal debt has become the second-largest federal budget expense, moving ahead of Medicare.
The research suggests those concerns may encourage investors to turn to Bitcoin. Its supply cannot exceed 21 million coins, while its issuance schedule is transparent and set in code.
Chris Kuiper, Vice President of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets, addressed the connection in commentary on October 1, 2026. He linked rising Treasury yields and Bitcoin’s price gains to investor sentiment about fiscal deficits and growing debt levels.
That interpretation places the two market moves within the same fiscal debate, rather than treating them as unrelated developments.
A different relationship for portfolio models
The positive correlation challenges portfolio assumptions built around Bitcoin moving against real yields or showing little relationship with them. Hedges based on older patterns could behave differently if the positive link persists.
Its durability is not established. Fiscal policy changes, budget negotiations and Treasury auctions are among the developments that will test the relationship.
Fidelity’s reading of the data is that Bitcoin is increasingly part of the market’s discussion about US public finances.
Two months of gains support the reported pattern
Bitcoin and 10-year Treasury rates both increased during the two months before the research was released. Those parallel gains provide the performance context for the record Bitcoin–US Treasury correlation.
Over that period, Bitcoin rose nearly 30%, while 10-year Treasury rates increased by more than 10%.
Article produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editorial team.