As if grocery shopping wasn’t expensive enough these days, prices in Canada could climb even higher in 2027, and we have Mother Nature to thank for that.
Changing weather patterns linked to a historic super El Niño could disrupt food production around the world, while a weaker Canadian dollar could make imported groceries much more expensive.
This weather phenomenon could bring more droughts and extreme heat to some regions and heavy rain and flooding to others, says the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. These conditions can damage crops and reduce harvests, potentially tightening food supplies and pushing up prices.
According to Canadian professor and food distribution and policy researcher Sylvain Charlebois, who published a report Oct. 13 on Retail Insider, prices for many everyday food ingredients have already gone up across the country.
For those living in Northern Canada, where grocery store items are already outrageously high, another increase brought on by El Niño could make an already expensive grocery bill that much harder to manage.
So which grocery items could potentially cost more? Here are some things Canadian shoppers should keep an eye on.
Bread, flour, and other wheat-based foods
According to Charlebois, wheat prices have jumped 48.4 per cent over the past year. That doesn’t mean your favourite loaf of bread is going to increase by that same amount, but higher wheat costs can eventually trickle down to the foods we buy at the grocery store.
Wheat is used in everything from sandwich bread and pasta to flour for baking cakes, cookies. and other treats. If it becomes more expensive for food manufacturers to buy wheat, some of those extra costs could eventually show up in grocery prices.
For a better idea of what shoppers are paying right now, Food Basics lists its Villaggio loaf of sliced white bread for $4.19, and Selection all-purpose flour for $3.77. Of course, those prices aren’t guaranteed to go up next year, but worth keeping an eye on.
Charlebois does, however, note that during the previous super El Niño in 2015 and 2016, prices for these items went up six to nine months later, partly because rising costs for wheat and rice drove up food processing expenses.
Rice
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Rice is another popular pantry item that could feel the pinch. Prices have climbed 38.9 per cent over the past year, according to Charlebois.
It’s a pretty big deal considering how many people rely on rice as an affordable side dish to their plate of veggies and protein. If higher costs make their way to store shelves, shoppers could end up paying more for their usual bags of rice.
Exactly how much rice prices could rise in Canada, though, remains unclear.
Fruits and vegetables
The Canadian dollar is already very weak, sitting at a lowly US$0.70 right now, which could make imported produce more expensive, especially during the winter months when Canada relies heavily on imports to keep grocery store shelves stocked.
Popular items like bananas, avocados, lettuce, and bell peppers are often supplied from other countries like Mexico and the U.S. since Canada can’t exactly produce these items year-round.
In his report, Charlebois estimates that if the Canadian dollar falls to US$0.68, fruit inflation could reach four per cent, while vegetable inflation could hit 5.5 per cent.
So if a container of cherry tomatoes currently costs $3.99, at Food Basics, the price would jump to around $4.21. That’s only a matter of 22 more cents, but those little increases can add up when you’re shopping every week, especially for bigger households.
Of course, these are estimates based on Charlebois’ projections, not a guarantee that all fruits and vegetables will cost more next year.
Sugar
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Tough times ahead for those with a sweet tooth, as sugar prices have already climbed 17.1 per cent over the past year.
The ingredient is used in all kinds of everyday items, from cookies and cakes to breakfast cereals and granola bars. According to the report, if higher sugar costs continue, food manufacturers could face more pressure to raise prices on some of these products.
That doesn’t mean your favourite pint of Ben & Jerry’s ice cream or soda can will automatically cost more next year, though. Sugar is just one part of the cost of making these foods, and things like packaging, labour, and transportation can also impact the final price tag.
Corn and soybeans
Foods made with corn and soybeans have also gotten more expensive, with prices up 29.7 per cent and 21.4 per cent, respectively, Charlebois reports.
You might not buy these ingredients on their own very often, but they’re used in plenty of products you probably have in your fridge or pantry. Corn is used to make tortilla chips, corn chips, and other snacks, while soybeans are used to make products like tofu and soy milk.
For example, Loblaws currently lists a 946 mL carton of Silk soy milk for $3.79, and a bag of Que Pasa tortilla chips for $5.25, which already feels like a lot.
Not every grocery item is facing the same pressures.
Charlebois notes that coffee and cocoa prices in Canada are actually lower than last year ago, offering some good news for chocolate lovers.
For now, we’ll have to wait and see what 2027 has in store for grocery prices. In the meantime, Canadians might want to enjoy their go-to snacks while they can, because even something as simple as a bag of Doritos could start feeling like a luxury.