3 Key Matchups Will Decide Jets’ Week 6 Outcome vs. Patriots (Gang Green Needs a Braelon Allen Encore)

The Jets head into Week 6 trying to build on last week’s victory over the Browns. This will be a challenge, however, as they’ll be heading to Gillette Stadium to take on the Patriots. 

Even with the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era behind them, the Patriots continue to dominate this rivalry, with New York going 2-10 against New England since 2020. Although leaving with a win will be difficult, especially with the Patriots turning things around in the last two games, it’s not impossible. 

If Gang Green can win these three matchups, they’ll give themselves a chance to pull off a road upset and earn back-to-back victories for the first time since 2023. 

1. Braelon Allen vs. Patriots’ run defense

Unlike last year, the Jets have been ineffective at running the ball, ranking 22nd in rushing yards per game (94) and tied for 25th in yards per attempt (3.6). Despite their inefficiencies, their victories have relied heavily on pounding the ball. 

In their three losses, the Jets ran the ball on 31.3%, 37.5%, and 43.8% of their plays, averaging 61.3 rushing yards per game. In their two victories, however, they ran the ball on 48.5% and 62% of their plays, averaging 143 rushing yards per game. 

This trend makes establishing the run a priority against the Patriots, even without Breece Hall, who’s missed the team’s last three practices before officially being ruled out by the Jets on Friday, reported by ESPN's Rich Cimini.

Braelon Allen will likely take on the bulk of the workload again. Allen played a key role in the Jets' Week 5 win over the Browns, setting career highs in rushing attempts (24) and rushing yards (116) and adding a touchdown. 

Running the ball won’t be easy against the Patriots' defense, as they rank sixth in rushing yards allowed per game (90.8) and are tied for 13th in yards per carry allowed (4). Still, the Jets can’t afford to abandon the ground game if they struggle to find success early. 

Pounding the football will be crucial to taking pressure off Geno Smith and giving the Patriots another dimension to keep New England’s defense guessing. With Garrett Wilson being the team’s only reliable receiving option, maintaining a balanced attack will be crucial. 

The more the New York feeds Allen, the more opportunities he will have to break through for explosive runs. That’s exactly what happened last week against the Brown, as the bruising back from Wisconsin displayed his big-play potential, recording five runs of 10 or more yards. 

If the Jets remain patient and continue feeding him the ball, Allen could eventually break through for a big gain. Although the Jets' offensive line hasn’t been great at creating running lanes, ranking 14th in run blocking, per Pro Football Focus, one play can spark the ground game. 

At 6'1" and 250 lbs, Allen has the size that makes him hard to bring down and the speed to break away from defenders. If New York’s offensive line opens running lanes for him at the second level, Allen could replicate similar success on the ground and keep New England’s defense on its heels. 

2. Jets’ secondary vs. Drake Maye

Two weeks ago, this matchup looked more attainable for the Jets, with Drake Maye struggling mightily through the first three weeks. The third-year quarterback from North Carolina threw for 585 yards, one touchdown, and six interceptions in New England’s first three games. 

But in the last two games, Maye has started to look like the MVP runner-up he was last season, throwing for 643 yards, seven passing touchdowns, and just one interception. He’s also remained elite against the blitz, completing 71.7% of his passes, throwing four touchdowns and an interception.

To limit Maye success through the air, New York must make some adjustments to its scheme.

With head coach Aaron Glenn taking over as defensive play caller, the Jets have taken an aggressive approach, ranking fourth in blitz rate at 39%. They’ll have to switch things up against Maye and rely on their front four to generate pressure rather than consistently sending extra rushers. 

Maye has been far less effective when defenses don’t blitz, completing 62.9% of his passes for one touchdown and six interceptions. When defenses sit back, he can hold the ball too long while searching for big plays, leading to costly mistakes and 14 sacks. 

This puts added pressure on the Jets’ secondary to stay disciplined in coverage and limit downfield opportunities, where Maye is most dangerous. With A.J. Brown potentially making his return, Gang Green could face an even greater challenge downfield. 

New York can match Brown’s physicality with Azareye’h Thomas, who’s impressed in coverage this year, earning a 74.4 coverage grade, per PFF, ranking 11th among 104 qualifying cornerbacks. 

Ultimately, the Jets’ ability to contain Maye will depend on how their secondary plays in coverage. If New York can prevent the Patriots’ receivers from creating separation, it could force Maye to hold onto the ball long enough for the pass rush to get to him. 

Staying with Brown and the Patriots’ other deep threats could also create interceptions, which they’ll need to stay in the game. 

3. Geno Smith vs. Patriots’ pass rush

For the most part, Smith has been a good game-managing quarterback. The 14-year veteran impressed with his efficiency in the first three games, completing 75.5% of his passes for 783 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions. 

While Smith kept the ball out of harm’s way in the last two games, he hasn’t been as effective, completing 55.5% of his passes for 301 yards and two touchdowns. Although injuries to several key playmakers have played a role, Smith has been less aggressive in pushing the ball downfield, attempting just 12 passes of 20 yards or more this season. 

However, Smith’s struggles aren’t entirely on him. Aside from Wilson, the rest of the Jets’ receiving corps has struggled to get open, forcing Smith to wait for throwing windows to develop. He’s tied 14th in time to throw at 2.93 seconds and has been sacked 16 times through five games, the third-most in the league.  

This is where New England’s pass rush could make life miserable for Smith. The Patriots rank ninth in blitz percentage (36.1%) and are tied for 15th in quarterback pressure rate (36.7%), according to NFL Next Gen Stats. 

Although their pass rush hasn’t been as effective, with New England tying for 12th in sacks with 11, defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr could test Smith early by dialing up some blitzes. 

If the Jets want to improve their chances of winning, Smith must make quick decisions with the ball and avoid holding the ball too long. Screen and quick passes to Isaiah Williams and,if he plays, Kenyon Sadiq could help counter the Patriots’ blitzes and give the offense opportunities to move the chains. 

Smith must also continue to target Wilson early and often. Reich must build on last week’s game plan against the Browns and get Wilson more involved in the slot. The five-year veteran made plays with the ball in his hands last week, recording a season-high 55 yards after the catch. 

Even if cornerback Christian Gonzalez plays and lines up against him, Smith shouldn’t shy away from targeting his best playmaker. Getting Wilson the ball in space rather than relying on him to make contested catches downfield could help New York move the ball downfield. 

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