Gideon Rachman, the Financial Times’ chief foreign affairs columnist, has outlined two possible paths to peace in Ukraine, each trading territory against Nato membership.
- Freeze the war along the current front line with a guarantee that Ukraine would not join Nato.
- Ukraine gives up the rest of Donbas in exchange for Nato membership.
The proposals mark a shift in how Europe handles the war. After months of "Trump-whispering", coaching Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and flattering US President Donald Trump to soften Washington's line, European leaders are now preparing to talk directly to Moscow, according to Rachman, who said Europe sees direct involvement in peacemaking as a necessity now that its money is keeping Ukraine afloat after the cut-off in US financial aid, Rachman wrote on October 19 in an opinion column for the Financial Times.
Both choices would be seen as a betrayal by some in Ukraine, Rachman wrote, though Zelenskiy might be able to sell either given the strong desire for peace. European officials are much less confident that Putin would accept either one.
Ukrainian opinion is hostile to the Donbas option. In an October 8-16 poll published October 19, 61% of respondents called a withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the parts of Donbas Kyiv still controls, in exchange for US and European security guarantees, categorically unacceptable; 35% were ready to accept the concession, according to the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.
Putin may also try to keep the Europeans out of the room. He has floated a three-way summit with Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping to discuss Ukraine, which would leave out both Kyiv and its European backers, The Wall Street Journal reported on October 19.
The European rethink comes as relations between Kyiv and Washington sour again. Zelenskiy has accused the US of throttling Ukraine's satellite services, Kyiv has defied a US demand to stop hitting Russian energy facilities, and Trump has eased sanctions to let more Russian diesel onto world markets while urging Europe to resume Russian gas imports as part of a peace deal.