BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Friday, 16 October, 10:15 p.m. ET · Source: TV Globo interview, reported by Poder360 and Metrópoles
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, holds its presidential runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened In a TV Globo interview on Friday 16 October, Flávio Bolsonaro did not say whether Supreme Court justice Kassio Nunes Marques should be investigated over reported links to banker Daniel Vorcaro.
- The allegation Messages on Vorcaro’s phone mention a possible monthly payment of R$500,000 (about US$99,000) to the justice’s son. Nunes Marques says he never exchanged messages with Vorcaro.
- His answer Flávio said everyone must be subject to the law, then criticised Justice Alexandre de Moraes without presenting evidence.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 77.8% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 22.5% (16 October, 9:54 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 78% and Kalshi at 78% (Lula: 22% and 22%), as of 16 October, 9:40 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open Neither the justice nor the candidate has said whether any formal investigation of Nunes Marques will follow.
Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro and the conservative candidate for president, would not say on Friday 16 October whether Supreme Court justice Kassio Nunes Marques should be investigated. He was asked on TV Globo about messages tied to banker Daniel Vorcaro, nine days before the Brazil election 2026 runoff.
Nunes Marques also presides over the electoral court (TSE), the body that organises the runoff on Sunday 25 October. The exchange puts a justice appointed by Flávio’s father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, at the centre of a campaign argument about the courts.
What Flávio Bolsonaro Said on TV Globo
Journalist Renata Lo Prete interviewed the candidate at the broadcaster’s studios in Rio, Poder360 reported. Asked about Nunes Marques, Flávio said everyone has to be below the law and that the law must apply to all.
He cited Law 1,079 of 1950, which sets out impeachment offences, and said any Supreme Court justice who breaks the law must answer for it. Metrópoles reported that he then accused Moraes of persecuting opponents of the government.
The Vorcaro Messages Behind the Question
Messages found on the phone of Vorcaro, founder of Banco Master, mention a possible monthly payment of R$500,000 (about US$99,000, at 5.07 reais per dollar) to Kevin Marques, a lawyer and the justice’s son, Poder360 reported.
Nunes Marques says he never exchanged messages with Vorcaro. He also declared himself barred from the court’s vote on opening an investigation into Moraes after the messages emerged.
Why Moraes Features in the Answer
Flávio backs an investigation and impeachment of Moraes over suspicions linked to the same banker. Moraes is a Supreme Court justice and a frequent target of the Bolsonaro camp.
The candidate said Moraes has acted in a party-political way in favour of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, and has pursued the government’s political opponents. He did not present evidence for those claims during the interview, Poder360 reported.
The Court Changes in His Platform
Flávio’s government plan, registered with the electoral court, proposes fewer solo rulings by Supreme Court justices. It would also review the court’s power to try criminal cases against lawmakers.
The plan would restrict relatives of justices from acting as lawyers in cases before the court.
What It Means for US Readers
Investors in Brazilian assets watch the courts closely, because Supreme Court and electoral court rulings can shape both the campaign and policy after it. An open question over a justice who runs the vote adds a legal risk to a race that polls call close.
Readers tracking the Brazil election 2026 can follow the Brazil election polls and the Brazil election odds for any market reaction. Prediction markets move on bets, not on court filings.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 77.8% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 22.5% (16 October, 9:54 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$185.1 million in total bets.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 77.8% · Lula 21.5% (US$185 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 78% · Lula 22%
As of 16 October, 9:40 pm ET (02:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether prosecutors or the Supreme Court will open any inquiry into Nunes Marques. The messages are reports of what was found on Vorcaro’s phone, and no court has ruled on them.
It is also unclear whether the exchange will move voters. No poll has yet tested the issue.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did Flávio Bolsonaro say Nunes Marques should be investigated?
He did not answer directly. Asked on TV Globo on Friday 16 October, he said everyone must be subject to the law.
Who is Kassio Nunes Marques?
He is a justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court, appointed by former president Jair Bolsonaro. He also presides over the electoral court (TSE), which runs the 25 October runoff.
What do the Vorcaro messages say about Nunes Marques?
Messages found on the phone of Banco Master founder Daniel Vorcaro mention a possible monthly payment of R$500,000 (about US$99,000) to the justice’s son, a lawyer. Nunes Marques says he never exchanged messages with Vorcaro.
What does Flávio Bolsonaro want to change at the Supreme Court?
His registered government plan proposes fewer solo rulings by justices and a review of the court’s power to try lawmakers in criminal cases. It also seeks limits on relatives of justices acting as lawyers before the court.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October. Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are the two candidates.
Sources: Poder360, 16 October 2026; Metrópoles, 16 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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