BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Tuesday, 20 October, 12:00 am ET · Source: Estadão and O Tempo, reporting the Lula campaign’s statement
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Monday 19 October, the Lula campaign told the electoral court (TSE) that Meta is not obeying the court’s equal-treatment order, reports said.
- The order Minister Marco Aurélio Bellizze gave Meta 24 hours on Sunday 18 October to prove compliance, with the daily fine rising from R$500,000 (about US$99,000) to R$1 million (about US$198,000).
- Meta’s position Meta said on Friday 16 October that technical faults hit the Lula campaign’s ads, and denied favouring any candidate.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.6% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 22.5% (19 October, 11:58 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 77% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 23% and 21%), as of 20 October, 12:00 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open Meta’s answer to the 24-hour order and the court’s next step were not reported by the outlets we reviewed.
The campaign of Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva told the electoral court (TSE) on Monday 19 October that Meta, owner of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, is not obeying a court order to treat both runoff campaigns equally, Estadão reported. It is the latest turn in a fight over social media in the Brazil election 2026 that ends with the vote on Sunday 25 October.
It matters to US readers because Meta is a US-listed company now facing court-ordered daily fines in a foreign election, and prediction markets tracking the Brazil election odds favour Flávio Bolsonaro, the conservative senator for Rio de Janeiro. Our earlier report covers the court’s 24-hour order to Meta.
What the Lula Campaign Told the Court
Éden Valadares, communications secretary of Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT), said the decision by Minister Marco Aurélio Bellizze “is not being fulfilled and was not fulfilled,” Estadão reported. He added that it is hard to bring “a new complaint every day” at an important moment of the campaign, with the debate.
The PT says Meta’s artificial intelligence tool has favoured images carrying the number 22, the ballot number of Flávio Bolsonaro and his Liberal Party (PL), Estadão reported. Valadares also said the campaign met on Monday with election investigators and observers from the European Union and the Organization of American States (OAS) to discuss the issue, O Tempo reported.
The 24-Hour Order and the Fines
On Sunday 18 October, Bellizze gave Meta 24 hours to show it had taken measures guaranteeing equal distribution of political content and electoral ads in the runoff, Estadão reported. The daily fine, now R$500,000 (about US$99,000), would rise to R$1 million (about US$198,000) if Meta cannot show full compliance.
Dollar figures use the RT rate of R$5.04 per dollar on 19 October. Diário do Grande ABC reported the same deadline and fine, and said the PT would file a new complaint on Monday saying the decision was not being followed.
Meta Denies Taking Sides
On Friday 16 October, Meta said technical faults in ad boosting had hurt the Lula campaign, but denied any political interference, Estadão reported. The company said the problems were quickly fixed and that Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign also reported faults.
Meta called claims that it favours any candidate “false and unfounded,” Estadão reported. The company has not publicly answered the new PT filing in the reports we reviewed.
What It Means for US Readers
If you hold US-listed Brazilian shares or follow Meta’s legal risks abroad, the case shows how a US platform can be pulled into a foreign election. A higher daily fine would be small for Meta but would keep the story in the headlines until the vote.
For anyone following the result, the dispute is about how voters see campaign content in the final week. Courts and observers, not the campaigns, will decide whether Meta complied.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.6% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 22.5% (19 October, 11:58 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has about US$188.7 million in total bets.
These are bets, not polls, and they can move quickly on news.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.6% · Lula 22.5% (US$189 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 21%
As of 20 October, 12:00 am ET (05:00 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
Meta’s reply to the 24-hour order and the court’s decision on the new PT filing had not been reported. It is also not known whether the court will raise the fine to R$1 million (about US$198,000) a day.
The reports give the PT’s view of the AI images and do not include independent evidence for them. Meta denies bias.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the Lula campaign tell Brazil’s electoral court about Meta?
It said on Monday 19 October that Meta is not obeying the court’s order to treat both runoff campaigns equally. Meta denies favouring any candidate.
What is the deadline and fine for Meta?
Minister Marco Aurélio Bellizze gave Meta 24 hours on Sunday 18 October to prove compliance. The daily fine of R$500,000 (about US$99,000) rises to R$1 million (about US$198,000) otherwise.
How has Meta responded?
On Friday 16 October, Meta said technical faults hit the Lula campaign’s ads and denied political interference. It said Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign reported faults too.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. The winner takes office as president for a four-year term.
What are the prediction markets saying?
Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro 76.6% and Lula 22.5% (19 October, 11:58 p.m. ET). These are bets, not polls.
Sources: Estadão, 19 October 2026; O Tempo, 19 October 2026; Diário do Grande ABC, 19 October 2026.
This article was drafted with automated assistance and reviewed before publication. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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