- The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority pushed back against widespread public belief that El Niño guarantees heavy rainfall across Kenya
- KMSA linked dry conditions in the North Rift to the evolving El Niño phenomenon, with the Agriculture Ministry warning of poor harvests in several counties
- The authority forecast above-average October–December rainfall for most of Kenya but cautioned that onset timing will vary by region
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Nancy Odindo is a current affairs writer at Tuko.co.ke (joined in 2023). She has one year of experience in print and more than five years in digital media.
The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) has moved to correct a widespread public misconception, warning Kenyans to stop assuming that El Niño automatically translates to heavy rainfall.
Source: Twitter
The statement, issued on Sunday, October 11, came as the October–December long rains season began, with many parts of the country still dry despite public expectations of imminent downpours.
What is El Niño and why the confusion?
KMSA explained that El Niño refers to the build-up of unusually warm ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific and that the strength of the event does not directly determine how much rain falls in Kenya.
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"People should stop believing that El Niño is rainfall," a KMSA representative said, noting that what actually occurs over Kenya depends on a combination of factors, including conditions in the Indian Ocean and prevailing winds, all of which can either reinforce or weaken the effects of the Pacific phenomenon.
Principal Meteorologist Dr. Joyce Kimutai had previously elaborated on the distinction: "El Niño is not synonymous with rainfall. So El Niño is not rain. Let's start with that. So El Niño is just a weather condition that happens in the Pacific Ocean. But what manifests, or the impacts, or what that weather, or what that change in the Pacific does, is that it can be rain in some parts. It can be drought in other parts."
KMSA confirmed that the El Niño threshold was crossed during the April–May–June period, and the authority attributed prolonged dry conditions in the North Rift partly to this evolving phenomenon, raising crop failure risks in the region.
Harvest losses and October outlook
The Agriculture Ministry separately cautioned that poor harvests were expected across Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, and Nakuru counties, where moisture deficits struck crops during the critical flowering and grain-filling stages.
Looking ahead, KMSA's October–December outlook projects above-average rainfall across most parts of Kenya, though onset dates will vary.
The authority expects the majority of areas to receive the first rains between the second and fourth weeks of October. Across broader Eastern Africa, enhanced rainfall has been forecast, though KMSA warned that the wetter conditions could increase the risk of flooding, waterlogging, and landslides.
Since June, the authority has been running monthly webinars and media engagements, including broadcasts in vernacular languages, to explain the science behind El Niño and manage public expectations ahead of the rainy season.
KMSA acknowledged that its public communication efforts could be improved but committed to continuing outreach through forums and media platforms, urging Kenyans to rely on official scientific data rather than assumptions when planning for the coming months.
What does El Niño mean to Africa?
According to the World Food Programme, Africa could face severe droughts and floods between October 2026 and March 2027, due to changing weather patterns. The events could cause severe floods across East Africa and intense drought in southern Africa and the Sahel.
The report lists 12 African countries that could face food crises due to El Niño impacts. They include Kenya, Uganda, Malawi, Somalia, Madagascar, Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, Cameroon, and Mozambique.
By the end of 2027, over 49 million people globally will face acute food insecurity, with an additional 24 million Africans threatened by hunger.
Source: Facebook
Ruto advises farmers after failed El Niño rains
In other news, President William Ruto called for Kenyan farmers to move away from rain-fed agriculture and adopt irrigation.
The appeal came as forecasts of El Niño rains shifted repeatedly, while authorities warned that flooding could put about 1.5 million people across all 47 counties at risk.
The president said farmers could not keep waiting for rains whose arrival forecasts had repeatedly been postponed.
Source: TUKO.co.ke