OIES warns gas prices could top $30 amid Strait of Hormuz crisis

Photo: ICGB

BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 16. Global natural gas price benchmarks rose sharply in the third quarter of 2026 amid the collapse of agreements between the U.S. and Iran to end the conflict and resume commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

According to the Quarterly Gas Market Review by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES), in the absence of diplomatic progress, near-term natural gas futures could exceed $30 per million British thermal units as March 2027 approaches.

According to the report, in the second quarter of 2026, prices at the Dutch TTF gas hub mostly ranged from $13.50 to $17.50 per million British thermal units, or 40 to 50 euros per megawatt-hour.

“However, following the cessation of indirect contacts between the U.S. and Iran and the resumption of military hostilities by both sides, prices began to rise again. In mid-September, TTF futures with the nearest delivery date reached a new high of $28 per million British thermal units (83.53 euros per megawatt-hour), surpassing the previous peak of $21 (61.85 euros per megawatt-hour) recorded in mid-March.

In the second half of September, gas prices for delivery to Europe and Asia fell slightly, but the market remains sensitive to changes in the situation.

The rate at which European gas storage facilities are being filled is not sufficient to reach historical averages. This makes the European gas market vulnerable to prolonged periods of low temperatures and a reduction in electricity generation from renewable sources, particularly due to a decline in wind power production this coming winter," the OIES report states.

According to the institute’s assessment, the lack of a stable political agreement and prospects for the resumption of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies from the Persian Gulf countries before the start of winter could lead to further price increases.

“Market dynamics will also be influenced by winter demand, increased LNG production capacity in the U.S., supply volumes from existing U.S. projects, domestic gas production in Europe, and pipeline imports,” the report notes.

At the same time, the OIES points out that high prices are already leading to a decline in demand in Europe and developing Asian countries.

“A full resumption of LNG shipments from Qatar, should a breakthrough be reached in resolving the situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, could trigger a sharp drop in price benchmarks,” the report states.