Senator Susan Collins and her Democratic challenger Troy Jackson are set to face off in the third Maine Senate debate on Tuesday, as polls point to a closely divided race in the Pine Tree State.
The debate is set to be hosted by Bangor-based news station WABI and will air at 7 p.m. ET. It is the third in a series of four debates held over a two-week span as early voting gets underway in Maine. Collins and Jackson have sparred over issues like affordability, tariffs and their approach to President Donald Trump as they hope to win over undecided voters who could ultimately decide the outcome of the critical race.
The Maine Senate race is seen as one of the most competitive and important elections of the 2026 midterms. It’s one of a handful of races that could determine whether Democrats or Republicans control the Senate when the new Congress reconvenes next year.
Maine has a Democratic lean. Trump lost it in all three of his presidential runs, including by nearly 7 points in 2024. But Collins has been able to defy the state’s partisanship in the past due to her personal popularity, bipartisan image and status as the Appropriations Committee chair, which has allowed her to bring funding back into the state.
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But this year, the longtime incumbent has found herself in a toss-up race against Jackson, the former president of the Maine Senate. Trump’s approval rating has fallen as voters sour on him due to economic concerns centered around the cost of living, fueling a more pro-Democratic national environment.
There is a lot at stake for both candidates as polls point to such a close race.
Dan Shea, professor of political science at Colby College, told Newsweek that Jackson will need to "sharpen his pitch."
"Down home and folksy is fine, but there also needs to be a bit more substance," he said.
Collins, meanwhile, needs to "slow down and actually get a bit more ‘plain spoken,’" he said.
"It's a contrast in styles, not unlike the 2016 Clinton/Trump debates, in partisan reverse," he said.
Newsweek reached out to the Collins and Jackson campaigns for comment via email.
Susan Collins vs. Troy Jackson: Latest Polls
Polling has consistently shown a close race in Maine in the past few weeks, and both parties view the race as competitive. Forecasters like the Cook Political Report also classify the race as a pure toss-up.
Jackson held a 4-point lead among 800 likely voters in a poll from The Washington Post and George Mason University.
Fifty percent of respondents said they planned to vote for the Democratic candidate, while 46 percent said they would back Collins for reelection, according to the September 30 to October 5 survey, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
Jackson also led by 4 points in a recent Marist University poll of 1,505 registered voters from October 1 to 4. Jackson’s support stood at 51 percent, while 47 percent supported Collins in the poll, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
But a YouGov/CBS News poll showed a dead heat, with each candidate at 50 percent. It surveyed 1,136 likely voters from September 23 to October 1 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.
The RealClearPolitics polling aggregate gave Jackson a 1.2-point lead as of Tuesday, underscoring the competitive nature of the race.
Republicans have noted that polling underestimated Collins in her 2020 reelection bid. She trailed Democrat Sara Gideon in most public surveys but went on to win her reelection with a slim majority of the vote. Polling errors are not necessarily repeated from cycle-to-cycle, but whether a similar miss will occur this year remains a question hanging over the campaign.
Susan Collins and Troy Jackson Prepare for Third Debate Tonight
The debates will offer candidates "an opportunity to make the case to swing voters," Shea said.
"I'm not sure the first two debates settled the minds of a lot of swing voters. There was a lot left on the table. I keep hearing from folks that neither looked particularly sharp, especially convincing," he said.
Shea pointed to home heating oil as a major issue to watch for in the debate.
"It's ‘fuel oil season’ in Maine, and I suspect this issue will be front and center in the next two debates," he said.
More than half of Maine residents use oil as the primary source to heat their homes, more than any other state, according to the Northeast Gas Association. Prices have soared amid the Iran war and were nearly $6 per gallon on Tuesday, meaning it’s a major point of economic pressure for many Mainers.
Mainers will be able to watch the debate on WABI at 7 p.m., and it will also be available on the channel’s streaming platforms, according to the network. It will also be broadcast on C-SPAN, allowing nationwide viewers to tune in.
Economic issues were important during the first two debates, as Jackson also tried to sow doubt about Collins’ independence from Trump, who is unpopular in Maine.
One of the most viral moments came as Collins cast herself as a critic of Trump’s tariffs, touting her efforts to obtain relief for products like road salt, which cities in rural Maine import from Canada.
Jackson said that minor exemptions did little to offset the broader trade policy implemented by the Trump administration, responding, "We can’t eat road salt."
Shea said that there were no gaffes, but also no "knockouts" during the first two debates.
Latest Developments in Maine Senate Race Between Susan Collins and Troy Jackson
Jackson is receiving support from well-known Democrats in the final weeks of the campaign. Former President Barack Obama endorsed Jackson on Thursday, while Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, traveled to the state to campaign with him over the weekend.
Trump has also floated the idea of visiting Maine ahead of the midterms in remarks to reporters, though Collins said during an earlier debate she does not believe the president will visit the state.
"I’ve heard nothing from his office, and I’m not exactly his favorite senator," she said. "I would say that he is not coming to Maine."
Collins has broken with Trump over his plan to import Russian diesel to combat high prices.
She joined several other senators to issue a bipartisan statement opposing the deal. The group said that Trump’s decision "runs directly counter" to a ban on Russian energy imports in 2022 that was passed "to prevent American dollars from financing Putin's brutal war against Ukraine."
"The United States should not provide Putin with a financial lifeline while Russia continues to kill Ukrainian civilians," the senators wrote. "The Administration must immediately reverse course."
A pro-Collins PAC this week drew attention after it mistakenly bought ads attacking Jackson in Portland, Oregon, instead of Portland, Maine.
The PAC, Defending Main Street, told Newsweek the mistake was made by a media vendor and that the ads were "immediately stopped and corrected" once it was identified.
What Prediction Markets Show
Jackson was narrowly ahead of Collins in prediction markets on Monday, having a 60 percent chance of winning on Kalshi and a 59 percent chance on Polymarket.
Their chances have narrowed as Election Day inches closer. One month earlier, he had a 66 percent chance of victory on Kalshi and a 71 percent chance on Polymarket.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.
Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always predict the future accurately.
Why the Maine Senate Race Is Important to 2026 Midterms
Maine’s Senate race is a critical battleground race that could have major implications for Senate control.
It’s seen as one of Democrats’ top pickup opportunities to flip a GOP-held seat given the state’s Democratic lean and the overall national environment favoring Democrats.
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, so Democrats have to flip four seats to win control of the Senate, as Vice President JD Vance would serve as the tiebreaker in an evenly divided chamber. In addition to Maine, North Carolina, which Trump won by 3 points, is seen as a top Democratic flip opportunity.
No other GOP-held seats exist in states Trump won by a single-digit margin or outright lost in 2024, so Democrats already have to win two double-digit Trump states to reach a majority.
If Democrats fail to flip Maine, their path to a Senate majority would narrow, as they’d have to make up that loss by winning in an additional double-digit Trump state with less favorable fundamentals for their party.
What Happens Next
The final debate will be hosted on Thursday at 7 p.m. by The Portland Press Herald and NEWS CENTER Maine. Candidates are making their final pitches to win over undecided voters, while also working to motivate turnout among their base in the final weeks of the campaign.
In-person absentee voting began on October 5 and will continue until October 29, according to the Maine secretary of state’s office. More than 70,000 Mainers had requested an absentee ballot as of October 2, according to the office.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jenna deJong and James Debens