The 24 Worst Teams That Would Have Made the College Football Playoff in New 24-Team Format

College Football Playoff expansion to a 24-team format is hurtling toward an inevitability with the CFP and ESPN closing in on a deal to double the field starting with the 2027 season, according to ESPN’s Pete Thamel. Our long national nightmare has arrived.

Concerns have rightly been raised by pundits and fans alike that the change will impact the importance of the regular season. The expansion will also allow teams that have so-so résumés and, frankly, very little chance to actually win a national championship into the field. But just how bad will those teams really be?

Sports Illustrated ventured to find out exactly that, taking a look back at the top 24 in every previous year of the CFP dating back to 2014. From there, we’ve selected the 24 worst teams that would have found themselves in the bracket in the new format. Considering there have been 36 teams with four or more losses (including seven each in 2016 and ‘18) to finish in the top 24, there are quite a few choices.

As to the records that are listed below, we referenced each team’s record as it was listed in the final set of CFP committee rankings each year that followed the conference championship games. The same goes for the record listed for each team’s best win and worst loss. Sorry folks: if you’re not already used to bowl games hardly mattering, it’s only about to get worse. 

We now present the 24 worst teams that would have played in a 24-team playoff if this had begun at the start of the CFP era in 2014, listed in chronological order:

No. 22 Utah (8–4), 2015

Best win: at 9–3 UCLA
Worst loss: vs. 3–9 Washington State

The Utes’ 2014 season was a true yo-yo of emotions, losing to the Cougars one week and going to shock the Bruins the next. Utah also beat USC but lost by a combined 56 points to Pac-12 title game participants Oregon and Stanford. Almost losing to Colorado, a team that went winless in the conference and won just two games in total in the final week makes Utah the debutante on our hypothetical list. 

No. 23 Tennessee (8–4), 2015

Best win: vs. 9–3 Georgia
Worst loss: vs. 7–5 Arkansas

This isn’t the last time the Vols will appear on this list and in many ways, “good but not great” would be an apt way to describe Tennessee’s last decade—and that’s what the 24-team playoff rewards. This team benefited from a down year in the SEC East, notching four of its five league wins against opponents with losing records and ending up without a single win against a ranked team. That just won’t do, even if the Volunteers were competitive in all four of their losses, all against solid teams.

No. 24 Temple (10–3), 2015

Best win: vs. 7–5 Penn State
Worst loss: at 8–4 South Florida

It’s hard to dock the Owls for playing in the conference championship game, but they were the third best team in the American that year behind Houston and Navy and got into the title game because they won the East division. The loss to South Florida was a real hit to Temple’s credibility and, in fairness, the team was already ranked below Navy in the set of committee rankings before the conference title game. With just two wins over American teams with winning records and a solid win over Penn State, the Owls’ argument isn’t strong enough.

No. 19 Utah (8–4), 2016

Best win: vs. 9–3 USC
Worst loss: vs. 4–8 Oregon

The Utes had everything to play for and managed to lose to the worst Oregon team this millennium in the penultimate game of the season—and any program that lost to the 2016 Ducks wasn’t worthy of making the postseason. Utah did so at home, compounding an Oct. 1 loss at five-win Cal. Add on the fact that this team beat just one of the top five Pac-12 programs this year and lost three of its last four games, giving this group basically no juice.

No. 20 LSU (7–4), 2016

Best win: at 8–4 Texas A&M
Worst loss: vs. 8–4 Florida

I just can’t get behind a team with seven wins making the College Football Playoff and that is not something any of us should ever stand for. But that’s what would’ve happened in 2016 after LSU had to reschedule its game against Florida and boot South Alabama from the schedule due to Hurricane Matthew. Obviously this is an extreme situation, but a .636 winning percentage would be the second-lowest mark to have ever made a hypothetical 24-team field. Oh, and the Tigers beat just one of the top eight teams in the SEC that year.

No. 21 Tennessee (8–4), 2016

Best win: vs. 8–4 Florida
Worst loss: at 6–6 Vanderbilt

If you were in the SEC, there was a solid chance you cracked the rankings at some point. That’s unfortunately not a real compliment, because only one team cracked double-digit wins (Alabama) in 2016 as the rest of the league tortured itself and failed to have another program differentiate itself. The Vols’ résumé is the worst of the bunch: 4–4 in the conference, losses to bottom four SEC teams in South Carolina and Vanderbilt, and for good measure, they needed overtime to beat Appalachian State in the season opener. 

No. 22 Virginia Tech (9–4), 2016

Best win: vs. 8–4 Miami 
Worst loss: at 4–8 Syracuse

A two-touchdown loss to the Orange smack dab in the middle of the schedule stands out, especially considering that was the same Syracuse team that gave up more than 50 points on four different occasions in 2016. The Hokies did manage to push eventual national champion Clemson in the ACC championship game but the damage had already been done with four losses and no jaw-dropping wins.

No. 24 Temple (10–3), 2016

Best win: at 9–4 Navy
Worst loss: vs. 7–5 Army

In a strange case of déjà vu, Temple also had a nice season in the third year of the CFP, winning 10 games and beating Navy on the road to win just its second conference championship and first since 1967. However, the American Conference was carnage that year and the Owls slipped into the title game on a tiebreaker despite having three regular-season losses, including to middling Army and average AAC team Memphis.

No. 22 Virginia Tech (9–3), 2017

Best win: at 7–5 Boston College
Worst loss: at 5–6 Georgia Tech

The Hokies beat one ACC team with a winning record in the regular season on their way to a fourth-place finish, dodged the teams that finished third, fifth and sixth and got comfortably beaten by frontrunners Clemson and Miami. They also lost to a pesky Georgia Tech group that scared a number of top teams that year but also beat Virginia Tech for its sole win in the month of November.

No. 22 Northwestern (8–5), 2018

Best win: at 8–4 Iowa
Worst loss: vs. 4–8 Akron

This is a doozy. Against a favorable Big Ten schedule, the Wildcats won the games they had to, made the Big Ten championship game and lost by three touchdowns to Ohio State. They also lost to Akron! The Zips went 4–8, lost their final five MAC games, but still managed to be the Big Ten runner-up in a wacky Week 2 matchup. Northwestern rallied to win the since-defunct Big Ten West, but a 1–3 start with a loss to a MAC team should probably prohibit a CFP trip.

No. 23 Missouri (8–4), 2018

Best win: at 9–3 Florida 
Worst loss: at 7–5 South Carolina

Northwestern was still ranked 22nd, which means there were some other seriously head-scratching résumés in 2018. We’ll also highlight Missouri, which may have beaten a 10-win Florida team on the road, but also dropped games at South Carolina and at home against Kentucky. Routs of bad teams (Vandy, Tennessee, Arkansas) helped the Tigers climb back to .500 in the SEC, but they finished eighth out 14 in the league—and still would’ve had a chance to compete for a national championship 

No. 22 USC (8–4), 2019

Best win: vs. 11–2 Utah
Worst loss: at 7–5 BYU

USC just couldn’t win any of its major games after mid-September (doesn’t that sound familiar?) and was thoroughly outplayed at 7–5 Washington and against future Rose Bowl champ Oregon, the latter of which was a 56–27 rout on the Trojans’ home field. The group was also pushed to the brink by a subpar Colorado team and gave up 35 points to four-win UCLA.

No. 24 Virginia (9–4), 2019

Best win: vs. 8–4 Virginia Tech
Worst loss: at 6–6 Miami

The ’19 Hoos continue a long lineage of conference championship game losers that still managed to hang around in the rankings and probably shouldn’t have. Especially because their loss to national runner-up Clemson in the ACC Championship game was by 45 points. Sometimes a league just has one really good team and Virginia’s wins over its rival and Pittsburgh shouldn’t exactly be celebrated as playoff worthy. 

No. 23 NC State (8–3), 2020

Best win: at 6–5 Pittsburgh
Worst loss: at 5–6 Virginia Tech

I was hesitant to include a team from the COVID-19-impacted 2020 season because of how bizarre that year played out and how mismatched the final records are, but after being reminded of the Wolfpack’s year, they had to be included. NC State beat four of the bottom five ACC teams (none of which had more than four wins), none of the top four and got blown out by the Hokies, who would crumble in the back half of the season.

No. 22 Kentucky (9–3), 2021

Best win: at 6–6 South Carolina 
Worst loss: at 7–5 Mississippi State 

A three-game blip for the Wildcats in late October and early November was a disaster and though a bowl win over Iowa resulted in a 10-win campaign, the final record is deceiving. Kentucky ended up without a win over a team ranked in the committee’s final top 25 and beat zero SEC teams that had a winning conference record. In fact, their SEC wins came over five of the bottom six finishers in the league.

No. 21 Notre Dame (8–4), 2022

Best win: vs. 11–2 Clemson
Worst loss: vs. 8–4 Marshall 

A win over Clemson, which finished seventh in the rankings should be commended. Now that we have that out of the way, please hold your applause. That was Notre Dame’s only worthy win and it was coupled with a Week 2 loss to Marshall and a mid-October loss to Stanford, which ended the year in the dregs of the Pac-12 at 3–9. 

No. 22 Mississippi State (8–4), 2022

Best win: at 8–4 Ole Miss
Worst loss: at 7–5 Kentucky

The Bulldogs didn’t have a truly terrible loss, but like 2021 Kentucky, also ended up with zero wins over teams that ended up in the top 25—and that should matter. Mississippi State lost to three of the top four finishers (Georgia, Alabama and LSU) in the SEC that year by a combined 65 points and got taken to overtime by a five-win Auburn team. 

No. 24 Troy (11–2), 2022

Best win: at 10–2 South Alabama 
Worst loss: at 6–6 Appalachian State

If we’re going to call a spade a spade, we have to call out some of the less deserving Group of 6 teams that would’ve made the expanded field. The Jon Sumrall–coached Trojans won the Sun Belt but lost to 6–6 Appalachian State and got trounced by their only power-conference opponent at Ole Miss. Troy was no juggernaut either, winning six of its 11 games, all against G6 competition, by single digits.

No. 20 Oklahoma State (9–4), 2023

Best win: vs. 10–2 Oklahoma
Worst loss: vs. 6–6 South Alabama

The Cowboys stuffed their résumé with good wins which is why they cracked the top 20 in the final set of CFP rankings. Can I also remind everyone that they lost 33–7, at home to South Alabama—a team that went 6–6 in the regular season and 4–4 in the Sun Belt? It gets worse. After Oklahoma State beat Oklahoma in a juiced-up, in-state rivalry, it went on the road and got waxed, 45–3, by another .500 team in UCF. Yikes!

No. 21 Tennessee (8–4), 2023

Best win: vs. 7–5 Texas A&M
Worst loss: at 5–7 Florida

Falling in line with our SEC teams that beat nobody and slipped up against mediocre-to-below- average teams, meet the ‘23 Vols. They got whacked by the SEC’s top three teams—Alabama, Georgia and Missouri—and also managed to lose by two scores in the Swamp to the five-win Gators. Tennessee had the same conference record (4–4) as the best team it beat, Texas A&M, which finished seventh in the league.

No. 23 Colorado (9–3), 2024

Best win: at 8–4 Texas Tech
Worst loss: at 5–7 Kansas

A little bit of schedule luck can mean everything in this era of super-sized conferences, and the Buffs benefited in Coach Prime’s best year in Boulder. Colorado beat some decent teams but got the chance to dodge all three of the Big 12’s other best teams (Arizona State, Iowa State and BYU). For the most part, the Buffaloes beat up on bottom feeders, and still managed to lose by 18 points on the road at both Nebraska (7–6) and Kansas (5–7).

No. 24 UNLV (9–3), 2024

Best win: at 5–7 Kansas
Worst loss: vs. 9–3 Syracuse

The Rebels had the difficult task of being a very solid team that had to twice play a real, top-12 playoff team in Boise State, both of which resulted in losses. They did push a 10-win Syracuse team to overtime and win a pair of road P4 games, but those games were against 4–8 Houston and 5–7 Kansas—victories that would otherwise be shrugged off by the committee had they been earned by a Big 12 program.

No. 23 Iowa (8–4), 2025

Best win: vs. 7–5 Minnesota
Worst loss: at 8–4 Iowa State

So many mediocre SEC teams ended up on this list that it’s only fair to put these Hawkeyes on as well. Iowa had no ranked wins and beat just one of the top nine teams in the Big Ten. In classic Kirk Ferentz fashion, every single one of their losses to better competition came by five points or less, which is why there’s a way to talk yourself into this team ... except for the fact that it was 54th in scoring and 96th (!!!) in yards per play. 

Duke (8–5), 2025 

Best win: vs. 10–3 Virginia
Worst loss: vs. 8–4 Illinois

Yes, you read that right. Everyone’s favorite 2025 ACC champions would be right up there with the worst teams to make the field, by way of winning one of the four power conferences, even if they didn’t end up cracking the Dec. 7 rankings. Sure, you could talk yourself into the fact that the Blue Devils didn’t have a loss to a team that won less than nine games. You could also point to the fact that they lost five of those games, and went 5–5 against FBS teams with a winning record.

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