After years of development and perhaps more hype than for any game, GTA 6 is set for release on November 19 for PS5 and Xbox Series X|S. Predicting that it will be an enormous success commercially is perhaps one of the safest bets anyone could make.
But just how big will the launch be? And what records could GTA 6 beat if it delivers?
The records
The last GTA game, 2013's GTA 5, was a huge hit right out of the gate. It brought in $800 million in revenue over its first 24 hours and $1 billion in its first three days. Even a decade later, the game remains a sales juggernaut, eclipsing 230 million copies sold and counting.
Rockstar's latest game, 2018's Red Dead Redemption II, launched with $725 million in revenue over its opening weekend. It's gone on to sell more than 87 million copies, making it one of the top five best-selling games ever.
Outside of Rockstar, Bethesda's 2015 RPG Fallout 4 had a gigantic launch, shipping 12 million copies for launch day alone, generating sales in excess of $750 million.
So to sum up, here are the records that GTA 6 is expected to surpass:
- GTA 5: $800 million in 24 hours and $1 billion in three days
- Red Dead Redemption II: $725 million over its first weekend
- Fallout 4 $750 million on launch day
GTA 6 has enormous shoes to fill to match and surpass Rockstar's previous games and Fallout 4. But if Sensor Tower's data is correct--or even close--then it should have no problem beating GTA 5's initial sales.
One thing working in GTA 6's favor when it comes to comparisons to past games is that GTA 6 has a higher selling price. The base game goes for $80, compared to the $60 that GTA 5 and Red Dead Redemption II launched at years ago.
Of course, $60 in 2013 dollars equates to about $85 today when factoring in inflation. But even inflation-adjusted figures would likely show that GTA 6 has a bigger launch, if it becomes the hit everyone expects it to. And when Take-Two inevitably shares GTA 6 sales data, you can bet the company will present the data is the absolute best possible light, whatever language and specifics it takes to get there.
The numbers so far
Officially, neither Rockstar nor parent company Take-Two have shared any numbers at all about preorders or sales projections since preorders opened in June. Take-Two boss Strauss Zelnick said it would not be prudent to disclose preorder figures because they could be misleading. His argument was that, technically speaking, GTA 6 has not sold a single copy yet, as, in theory, every preordered copy of the game could be returned. That's silly, of course; it sounds more like Zelnick is staying true to his mantra of never declaring success before it occurs.
Whatever the case, Zelnick said GTA 6 preorders "vastly" surpassed international expectations, but he did not say what those expectations were or "whether they mean anything" anyway.
Zelnick said sharing real, raw data for GTA 6 preorders could mislead investors, so Take-Two is not going to do so.
“I’ve reminded people that we simply don’t know the demand curve because it’s just never happened before,” Zelnick said. “Given that, we think the raw numbers could potentially be misleading in a direction we wouldn’t feel good about.”
Speaking during Take-Two’s latest earnings call, Zelnick said of GTA 6’s preorder numbers, “No one’s ever seen anything like this before at Take-Two, or in the industry.” He added: “To be clear, we haven’t sold one unit yet. You can cancel a preorder.”
$2 billion by launch?
The research firm Sensor Tower has a "GTA 6 Sales Tracker" site that shows estimates for GTA 6 preorders, displaying 6.08 million through October 13, and that apparently includes any returned/refunded copies. The group estimates that this works out to $594 million in revenue so far, with a split of 74% for PlayStation 5 and 26% for Xbox Series X|S.
Sensor Tower's Karl Kontus said in an interview that reorders for GTA 6 could be in the area of 25 million when the game releases, which would amount to “unprecedented preorder performance.”
At 25 million, that would work out to about $2 billion in revenue, which would cover the game's development budget and the majority of the marketing spend, he said. Kontus went on to say that he expects the majority of GTA 6 preorders to come in the last week or so before launch, as the hype peaks. Currently, the preorder split is skewing toward the $100 edition, Sensor Tower said, but that makes sense since people who preorder early are probably more on the enthusiast site. At launch, Sensor Tower said it expects about a 50/50 split between the $80 and $100 editions for preorder numbers.
Launch is only the beginning
GTA 6 is being marketed as a single-player experience that will be available on console exclusively. That may be true for now, but everyone expects Rockstar to release the next evolution of GTA Online for GTA 6, and eventually bring the game to PC. A recent report said the PC edition could launch sooner than expected.
The investment company Jeffries released a note recently that says Take-Two's stock is currently trading at a discount at about $200/share today, October 16, and could jump to $300/share. The company is bullish on Take-Two not just because GTA 6 is expected to be a huge hit, but also because the next version of GTA Online will represent another revenue vector, and the expected PC edition will create another selling cycle.
These are not wild predictions. After all, GTA Online, to this day, continues to bring in steady revenue for Take-Two through its various microtransactions and the GTA+ subscription service. It's only reasonable to assume Rockstar would further flesh out GTA Online for GTA 6 and create even more ways for people to spend time (and money) in the world. As for the PC edition, it makes a lot of sense that it would drive people to pick up the game there if that's their preferred platform, and they could be double-dippers, further enriching Take-Two in the process.
A different console market
GTA 5 launched at the very tail end of the PS3 and Xbox 360 console lifecycles, which created a unique situation that no doubt increased the game's sales potential. Those consoles combined for an install base of more than 150 million units, so Rockstar had an enormous market to sell into. And as stated above, it sold fantastically in this environment.
Rockstar launched the game for those platforms, but then also brought it to PS4 and Xbox One, and then to PS5 and Xbox Series X|S in the years that followed, with new improvements along the way. People didn't need to pay again, as free upgrades were offered in some situations, but it can be safely assumed many people double-dipped.
GTA 6 is launching in a very different world for the console market, as the PS5 and Xbox Series X|S are today more expensive than ever due to tariffs, the AI-fueled demand for memory and components, the war in Iran, and various other global macroeconomic factors driving up prices. The PS5 has sold more than 95 million units, and it's estimated that Xbox Series X|S is about a third of that, so there are probably more than 120 million combined units out there.
What about the long run?
If GTA 6 does outperform GTA 5 at launch, that doesn't necessarily it will be able to catch up to GTA 5 over the long haul. GTA 5 has sold more than 230 million copies, and it benefitted from the unique setup mentioned above. The game also debuted prior to the live-service black hole that exists today, with games like Fortnite and Roblox sucking up time and money from the market.
While there has been talk of the PS6 and Project Helix family of devices from Xbox, reports have suggested those platforms could be delayed due to the complexities and headaches related to the current environment mentioned above. Whenever the next PlayStation and Xbox consoles are available, though, it's a safe bet we'll see GTA 6 ported to them at some point.
As for the massive market that is the Switch 2, GTA 6 has not been announced for Nintendo's platform. It may not be ruled out, however, as Rockstar reportedly conducted tests for this--but that's all they could be. Nintendo of America's president told fans to ask Rockstar about GTA 6 for Switch 2.
Another issue at play for GTA 6 is that console generations are much longer than before, due to the market factors described above. So while Rockstar was able to migrate GTA 5 to new platforms every couple of years, and reap the benefits, that could be a more challenging proposition going forward.
Despite these possible headwinds, I am betting that the next evolution of GTA Online is a bonafide juggernaut that will outshine the main game in the fullness of time. For one, I expect Rockstar to heavily lean into user-generated content and provide a generally bigger and deeper world for GTA Online that gives players more things to do and more reasons to stay. In turn, this could create more opportunities for Rockstar to monetize and create its own kind of metaverse. Here's to hoping Rockstar divulges the goods on GTA Online 2.0 soon.
GTA 6 is a must-have game for many people, but for those people on the fence who don't already own a console or want a new one, putting up $600 for a base PS5 or $500 for a Series S might lead to serious sticker shock. Gaming overall is becoming increasingly an activity for richer people who are less price-sensitive, so perhaps these issues won't matter materially. We'll have to wait to see the data.
Keep checking back with GameSpot for more on GTA 6 in the days and weeks ahead.