Most Ukrainians still reject handing Russia the rest of Donbas in exchange for Western security guarantees, according to a new poll, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) said in a survey published on October 19
Some 61% of respondents said withdrawing Ukrainian troops from the parts of Donbas that Kyiv still holds, including Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, was "completely unacceptable", against 35% who would accept it, most of them calling it a difficult condition, KIIS said. Another 4% were undecided.
Should Ukraine pull out of the Donbas it holds in return for US and European security guarantees? KIIS waves, January to October 2026. Source: Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).
The share saying the proposal was completely unacceptable was 57% among respondents interviewed on October 8-9 and 62% among those interviewed on October 10-16. KIIS said the difference was within the margin of error and that "for now, the pressure campaign on Ukraine has not led to a higher willingness to accept this proposal".
The poll measured public opinion during a month of mounting pressure from Washington. On October 9, the US Treasury issued General Licence 135, authorising transactions in Russian-origin diesel. US President Donald Trump has since put sweeping new Russia sanctions on hold as fuel prices climb. Over the same weeks Russia has kept up its campaign to freeze Ukraine into submission with strikes on cities and the power grid. Handing over the rest of Donetsk region is one of Moscow's core demands, and it has featured in earlier US peace proposals.
At least half of respondents in every region rejected the trade. Resistance was strongest in Kyiv, where 66% were categorically against despite the ballistic missile and drone strikes on the capital. Acceptance was highest in the east, mostly Kharkiv region, where 45% could live with the deal and 51% rejected it. In the south, the share ready to accept fell from 50% in April to 36%.
A clear majority are also prepared for a long war. Some 62% said they were willing to endure it for as long as necessary, 4% for a year and 21% for a few months to half a year, with 13% undecided. That was unchanged from mid-September and well above the low of 48% recorded in April, though short of the 71-73% of 2022-2024.
How much longer are Ukrainians willing to endure the war? KIIS waves, May 2022 to October 2026. Source: Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).
Few expect it to end soon. Only 10% think the war will be over by the end of 2026 and 13% in the first half of 2027, while 17% expect it to end in the second half of 2027 and 39% in 2028 or later. Another 21% could not say.
When might the war end? October 2026. Source: Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).
Respondents also rejected Moscow's account of its strikes on Ukraine's economy. Asked about Russian attacks on ports, warehouses and filling stations, 92% said Russia wants to destroy the economy and make life unbearable to force a capitulation. Only 3% said Russia was retaliating for Ukrainian attacks on Russian economic targets and 2% said it was hitting only military-linked sites. In January, 88% gave the same answer about Russia's strikes on the power grid.
How Ukrainians read Russia's strikes on economic targets, October 2026. Source: Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).
KIIS split the sample to test who Ukrainians blame for the lack of a settlement. Asked about each statement separately, 84% agreed that Russia wants to conquer Ukraine and is therefore not ready for a peace that leaves it a sovereign state with a strong army, while 20% agreed that the Ukrainian authorities should be more accommodating in talks and 73% disagreed. Some 64% held the consistently pro-Ukrainian view on both counts, 4% the consistently pro-Russian one and 14% agreed with both statements.
Agreement with two statements on the peace process, half-sample of about 500, October 2026. Source: Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).
Made to choose between the two, 78% said Russia's ambition to subjugate Ukraine was what blocked peace and 12% blamed an inflexible government in Kyiv.
What hinders peace? Half-sample of about 500, October 2026. Source: Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).
Ukrainians want peace and are open to talks, KIIS executive director Anton Hrushetskyi said, noting that 75% accept negotiations with Russia, but not to one-sided concessions and disarmament that limit the country's sovereignty. He also dismissed calls for early elections, which 71% oppose, and pressed for air defence as Ukraine's interceptor missiles run dry.
"We need not a festival of the popular will, but packages of interceptors for Patriot systems," Hrushetskyi said. "Between capitulation now, with the almost inevitable risk of further Russian genocide, and resistance now, with the hope of achieving acceptable terms, Ukrainians choose to continue resisting."
The appetite for a negotiated end is real. Some 66% of Ukrainians want the war to end through negotiations as soon as possible, up from 22% in 2022, according to Gallup data cited by Liubov Tsybulska, director of Join Ukraine, in an op-ed for the Kyiv Independent. That figure "does not, in itself, signify support for capitulation," she wrote.
KIIS polled 1,031 adults by telephone across government-controlled Ukraine on October 8-16, excluding residents of occupied territories and people who left the country after February 24, 2022. The margin of error is up to 4 percentage points for the full sample and 5.7 points for each half-sample. Earlier KIIS surveys found that corruption worries Ukrainians more than Russia's missile strikes and that 53% think President Volodymyr Zelenskiy should not seek a second term.