Derek Mason and Middle Tennessee State football will try to make it two wins in a row in Conference USA play when the Blue Raiders travel to Florida International for another weekday game on Oct. 20 (6 p.m. CT, CBS Sports Network).
The Blue Raiders (3-3, 1-1 CUSA) are coming off a 33-30 win over Delaware during Week 7 while the Panthers (3-3, 1-1) suffered their first league loss, 27-24 at Jacksonville State.
Following is a scouting report on the Conference USA contest, including a score prediction by The Daily News Journal's Cecil Joyce:
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- Time: 6 p.m. CT at Pitbull Stadium
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MTSU at FIU prediction
These two teams are currently tied with two others for fourth place in the conference at 1-1, so despite several games left in the season, this will be a big stepping stone for the winner.
The two offenses will have to come to play and make few mistakes, particularly MTSU. The Blue Raiders are facing a much improved Panther defense that is currently in the nation's top 10 in points allowed per game (14.7). That average is more than half of what FIU allowed per game last season (over 31).
FIU has allowed a single field goal in consecutive games earlier in the season.
MORE: What we learned from Derek Mason, MTSU football bounce-back win over Delaware
MTSU has the offense to do some damage against the Panthers, having scored at least 26 points in seven of Roman Gagliano's nine starts at quarterback. However, the Blue Raiders can't afford outings such as a 13-point effort on the road at Jacksonville State earlier in the season.
MTSU is still seeking its first road win of the season, and a FIU team picked to finish sixth in the conference in the preseason won't be gracious hosts. It will take an effort as good or better than the Blue Raiders had in their win against Delaware to pull off the upset.
MTSU at FIU scouting report
Why MTSU has an advantage: FIU hasn't exactly lit up the scoreboard this season, averaging just 19 points a game. The Blue Raider defense is allowing 28 points a game, but that number is inflated some by 55 points allowed at Kansas.
MTSU got its defensive front going against Delaware, collecting five sacks after having accumulated just three over the first five games. If MTSU can pressure FIU quarterback JJ Kohl and keep him from going downfield to favorite target Maguire Anderson (33 catches, 534 yards, 4 TDs), the Blue Raiders has a chance for the upset against a FIU team that is around a 10-point favorite. Kohl isn't known as a dual threat, something that what has caused MTSU problems defensively.
Why FIU has an advantage: The defense is the key. The Panthers aren't only keeping opponents off the scoreboard, but they're not allowing many yards either − just 267 yards a game. FIU gives up just 166 passing yards a game, and defensive linemen DeeJay Holmes, Kenton Simmons and Elisha Baldridge have combined for 12 of the team's 14 sacks.
FIU is limiting opponents to just 30% on third-down conversions and has lost just two fumbles on offense.
MTSU at FIU score prediction
FIU 24, MTSU 20: The Kohl-to-Anderson connection is a hard one to ignore, especially for an MTSU secondary that has been prone to allowing big plays. The FIU defense is probably closer to the one that allowed 27 points to Jacksonville State than its overall numbers against weaker opponents, but it's still good enough to pull out a big home win.
Cecil Joyce covers high school sports and MTSU athletics for The Daily News Journal. Contact him at cjoyce@dnj.com and follow him on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, @Cecil_Joyce.
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This article originally appeared on Murfreesboro Daily News Journal: Can Derek Mason, MTSU football get upset road win at stingy FIU? Our prediction
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