Diesel prices would come down "IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!" under a new agreement with Russia, President Donald Trump said on Friday, but energy analysts who spoke with Newsweek say the deal is unlikely to deliver significant relief before the November 3 midterm elections.
Trump announced in a Truth Social post that Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to supply additional diesel fuel to global markets after the administration authorized transactions involving Russian diesel.
But experts caution that while the agreement could help on the margins, the volumes involved are small compared to the broader supply shortfalls that have driven diesel prices sharply higher.
Newsweek reached out to the White House and Energy Department for comment on Monday.
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Will Trump's Diesel Deal Lower Prices?
Experts who spoke with Newsweek on Monday were skeptical that the agreement would meaningfully lower diesel prices before the midterms.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said the promised volumes appear too small to substantially change market conditions. He told Newsweek that he does not expect the agreement to "meaningfully" affect U.S. diesel prices.
"Perhaps slight decreases, but that's only if the deal actually happens," De Haan said. "Russia may not actually have enough diesel as this deal represents."
Asked whether truckers, farmers and other major diesel users could see noticeable relief within the next three weeks, De Haan was equally doubtful.
"I don't believe this changes much," he said. "It doesn't add any supply to a global market that needs it badly."
De Haan also questioned the scale of the announcement, noting that the initial 300,000-ton shipment cited by Trump represents only about a day and a half of typical U.S. diesel supply.
"The amounts aren't exactly sizable," he said. "The 300,000 tonnes is about 1.5 days of typical U.S. supply."
He added that the promised exports are "very small" relative to global diesel demand and questioned whether Russia can deliver the volumes Trump described.
Tom Kloza, senior energy and market adviser at Gulf Oil, raised a similar concern.
"Would Russia be willing to part with diesel to the U.S. when it doesn't have enough to handle domestic needs?" Kloza told Newsweek.
Kloza added that refinery disruptions remain a major obstacle, noting that Russian refining capacity has been damaged by repeated drone attacks in the ongoing war with Ukraine and that refining systems elsewhere in the Middle East are also under pressure.
Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, reached a similar conclusion. He told Newsweek that the additional Russian barrels would help "on the margin" but are unlikely to materially lower prices in the coming weeks.
"The partial easing of Russia's diesel export ban will make additional barrels available, but it will only offset about 10 [percent] to 20 percent of the loss of globally traded diesel supplies and is unlikely to materially lower prices in the next few weeks," he said.
Ed Hirs, an energy economist at the University of Houston, also questioned whether the agreement could significantly affect prices before voters head to the polls.
"The diesel that will be consumed over the next three weeks is already in the pipeline to consumers," Hirs told Newsweek.
He said the lead time required to transport, refine and distribute fuel makes it unlikely the agreement would have a major impact before Election Day.
Why Diesel Prices Have Become a Major Political Issue
Unlike gasoline, diesel is critical to many parts of the economy.
The fuel powers trucking fleets, farm equipment, freight rail, construction machinery and industrial operations. When diesel prices rise, costs often spread through supply chains and can contribute to broader inflation.
Trump has increasingly focused on diesel costs in recent weeks, arguing that lowering prices would help farmers, ranchers and truckers. The administration has already allowed the temporary use of tax-exempt dyed diesel on public roads, encouraged allies to release fuel reserves and now moved to facilitate additional Russian diesel exports.
The issue has gained added political significance because diesel prices remain elevated with three weeks remaining until the midterms.
Even as Trump argues that the agreement will lower prices, some Republicans have criticized the move, saying the U.S. should not provide Russia with additional energy revenue while the war continues.
Some Republicans are also seeking to stop the agreement outright. Representative Brian Fitzpatrick, a Pennsylvania Republican and co-chair of the House Ukraine Caucus, said he plans to introduce bipartisan legislation blocking purchases of Russian oil.
"We will be introducing bipartisan legislation to block any and all purchases of Russian oil," he wrote on X. "It will be called the 'Ronald Reagan Peace Through Strength Act.'"
Analysts Question Whether Russia Adds Enough Supply
McNally said the global diesel market has lost about 1 million barrels per day of supply, while Russia's incremental exports amount to only about 0.1 to 0.2 million barrels per day.
"So the new barrels will help on the margin but will fall well short of the losses from the Iran and Russia-Ukraine conflicts," McNally said.
Previous analysts interviewed by Newsweek have also questioned whether Russia can deliver the volumes Trump described, citing refinery damage caused by Ukrainian drone attacks and broader supply constraints.
Ukraine Disputes Trump's Claims About Energy Markets
The diesel deal has escalated tensions between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Trump has repeatedly linked high diesel prices to Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and has argued that reducing attacks on Russian refineries could help ease fuel costs.
But Zelensky pushed back on Monday during an interview with Fox News.
"Everybody understands that the prices on diesel doesn't depend on our attacks on diesel in Russia," he said. "Everybody understands that it depends on the blocking of Hormuz, Strait of Hormuz."
Zelensky also responded to Trump's suggestion to reporters on Saturday that Ukraine should replace its leader.
"If President Trump wants to change the leader in Ukraine he [has] to know only our people can change [that] and I am ready for elections, really," Zelensky said, adding that Ukraine would need at least 60 days without Russian attacks to safely conduct a vote.
"We have attacks each hour...how can people vote?" he said.
Zelensky Says Russia Violated Trump's Energy Ceasefire
The dispute widened Monday after Zelensky accused Russia of continuing attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure despite Trump's announcement on Sunday that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop targeting each other's energy facilities.
Zelensky said Russia struck at least six energy-related targets overnight, including a gas facility and a petrol station. He argued that the attacks showed Moscow had no intention of honoring the ceasefire.
"This is what happens when Russia sees the prospect of higher revenues for its war machine," Zelensky wrote on X.
Reuters also reported that European allies expressed skepticism of the arrangement, while the European Union moved ahead with a new sanctions package targeting Russia.
The developments underscore how Trump's diesel initiative remains tied to the broader war in Ukraine, even as the White House promotes it primarily as an economic measure aimed at lowering fuel costs.
For now, however, the view from energy analysts appears clear: The additional diesel may help on the margins, but the volumes announced by Trump are too small to meaningfully alter global diesel markets before Election Day.
Newsweek reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Steve Mollman and Dave Siminoff.