B.C. Election: Leaders try to win over voters in Surrey and Vancouver Island as campaign winds down

Much like 2024, the NDP and Conservatives are waging a battle over Surrey and other suburban ridings in Metro Vancouver and on Vancouver Island as the campaign moves into the final few days.

With polls showing the Conservatives ahead by anywhere from two to five points and final voting only four days away, experts say it is clear the B.C. NDP is spending the majority of leader David Eby’s tour focused on ridings it wants to retain, while B.C. Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson is spending his time in places his party believes it can flip.

“If you observe the outcome of the municipal elections, there was a lot of anti-incumbency rebellion,” said Shinder Purewal, a Kwantlen Polytechnic political scientist. “The NDP probably fears that people are going against the existing governments.”

On Tuesday, Doerkson made a tour of southern Vancouver Island, which is traditionally NDP territory but also a region where the Conservatives believe they can make inroads, including in ridings such as Juan de Fuca-Malahat, Cowichan Valley and Saanich North and the Islands.

Angelo Isidorou, a Conservative strategist and former campaign manager, said the other place the party hopes to be successful is in seat-rich Surrey where Doerkson’s team believe they can win nine out of 10 ridings after picking up six in 2024.

Isidorou says both the NDP and Conservatives recognize the importance of the region and that is why both have made commitments to fund a new SkyTrain extension to Newton, a key campaign promise for Surrey Mayor Doug McCallum who was just elected for his fifth term as mayor.

“For the rest of the week, I think you’re going to see (Doerkson) in the Lower Mainland, primarily Surrey as well as north of the Fraser,” said Isidorou. “If you win Surrey, you win the whole election.”

Some other ridings the Conservatives believe they can pick up include Vancouver-Yaletown, where Doerkson unveiled his public safety plan, and Coquitlam-Burke Mountain.

Richmond-Steveston and Vancouver-Langara are also up for grabs, said Isidorou, although they have not featured prominently on the leader’s tour for the party.

On the NDP side of the equation, Eby has made five visits to Surrey, compared to four for Doerkson, while also making multiple stops in Coquitlam-Burke Mountain and Kelowna Centre.

Mike McKinnon, Western Canada director for Enterprise Canada and a former deputy communications director to the late NDP premier John Horgan, said that with 20 ridings decided by under 1,000 votes in 2024, it is more important than ever that leaders get out to speak to voters directly.

He said he expects most of the 10 Surrey ridings to be up for grabs, and agreed with Isidorou that the region will likely determine the outcome of the election.

“Whoever wins Surrey wins government. I think that’s been what people have been saying for a really long time,” said McKinnon.

“In 2024, Conservatives won six of them, the NDP won four, and look how close the last election was. In 2020, when the NDP won by a lot, there were eight ridings and the NDP won six of them.”

He said the NDP is also hoping to win back ridings like North Island that have been traditional strongholds for the party but which it lost in 2024.

As for Kelowna Centre, which Eby has visited twice during the campaign, McKinnon said it is the first time in many years that a seat in the province’s largest Interior city has been seen by the NDP as winnable.

On the flip side, ridings such as Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, Richmond-Steveston and Juan de Fuca-Malahat are viewed as vulnerable after the NDP only narrowly retained them in 2024.

While Eby and Doerkson have spent much of their time in the Lower Mainland, Green leader Emily Lowan has spent most of her time in her own riding of Saanich North and the Islands, with trips to neighbouring ridings where the Greens have support, such as Saanich South and Victoria-Beacon Hill.

She has also made visits to the riding of West Vancouver-Sea to Sky to help her only incumbent candidate Jeremy Valeriote.

Stewart Prest, a UBC political scientist, said the Conservatives will be feeling better than the NDP at this point, but there is still no guarantee that their positive poll numbers will be reflected in the final seat count.

He said that the unpopularity of Eby’s early election call could make it difficult for the NDP to get their voters out to the polls.

“This election is boiling down to a contest of mobilization, where both sides are going to need to get their votes out in areas where the result is any way in doubt, and the NDP in particular have made that more difficult, given that this election is broadly unpopular,” he said.

“The NDP are not just playing defence, but they’re trying to fire up their supporters, including in areas where in previous elections they probably wouldn’t have worried so much.”