South Korea's per capita gross domestic product will exceed $40,000 for the first time this year on the back of a semiconductor supercycle and approach $50,000 next year, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Per capita GDP will reach $43,511 this year, crossing the $40,000 mark for the first time, before climbing to $49,276 next year, the IMF's World Economic Outlook statistical database showed on the 13th. The figure is projected to reach $52,100 in 2028, surpassing $50,000.
Korea's per capita GDP had risen steadily to $35,363 in 2018 before falling for two consecutive years to $33,653 in 2020 because of the pandemic and other factors. It rebounded briefly to $37,548 in 2021 as economic activity resumed after the COVID-19 pandemic, aided by large-scale stimulus measures and base effects, but slipped to $34,888 the following year amid rising prices and interest rate increases. It then hovered around $36,000 before the projected sharp rebound starting this year, as strong exports driven by the semiconductor boom are fully reflected.
Per capita GDP could rise further if the average won-dollar exchange rate falls more this year. When the IMF issued its earlier projection in April, the exchange rate was in the 1,460-won range and Korea's per capita GDP was estimated at $39,165. The rate has since fallen to the mid-1,300-won range, and a further decline by year-end could push this year's figure above the October projection.
Korea's global ranking is also expected to improve. As of last year, Korea ranked about 10th in per capita GDP among countries with populations above 20 million, trailing Spain. This year, Korea is projected to overtake Spain and move up to ninth, entering the top 10. Countries ahead of Korea include the United States (about $95,212), Australia (about $75,172), Germany (about $65,699), the United Kingdom ($61,108), Canada (about $60,105), France (about $51,448), Italy (about $45,886) and Taiwan ($43,950). Japan was projected at about $35,000 and is not expected to top $40,000 until 2030.
Korea is expected to compete closely with Taiwan, which like Korea relies heavily on the semiconductor industry. Taiwan will stay ahead of Korea this year before Korea overtakes it next year, when Taiwan is projected at $47,414, and then falls narrowly behind again in 2030. In 2031, Korea is projected at $59,919 and Taiwan at $60,048, meaning Taiwan would cross the $60,000 threshold first.
Korea's nominal GDP is projected to reach $2.2458 trillion this year, topping $2 trillion for the first time, and to grow to $2.5395 trillion next year. It is then expected to reach $2.6813 trillion in 2028, $2.8058 trillion in 2029, $2.9307 trillion in 2030 and $3.0693 trillion in 2031.
