Andalucía's economy is set to grow by 2.3% in 2027, when employment is expected to rise by 2.5% to reach 3,782, ... 000 people in work. These are the economic forecasts the regional government has set out in the draft budget bill for the coming financial year.
Airef (the independent authority for fiscal responsibility) has endorsed these figures and confirmed the good performance of the Andalusian economy in 2027. According to Airef, the region's economy will grow by 2.1% in 2027.
The regional ministry of economy and finance says that, at the end of the year, the region's economic performance has "always" exceeded growth forecasts. In 2023, GDP rose by 2.3%, while the initial forecast was 1.9%. In 2024, it grew to 3.3%, compared to the 2.7% forecast. Last year, the regional accounts showed economic growth of 2.4%, which ultimately rose to 3.2%.
Macroeconomic forecasts
The Airef report on the macroeconomic forecasts for the Andalusian regional government's 2027 budget notes that the region has complied with the recommendation to submit all the information on the macroeconomic forecasts underpinning it and the corresponding request for a guarantee.
It also highlights as an example of good practice the inclusion of these macroeconomic forecasts beyond the year for which the budgets are drawn up and further describes as "very positive" the inclusion of a comparison with other independent forecasts and the provision of information on the econometric techniques, models and parameters used, as well as on the assumptions underpinning their forecasts.
The regional ministry of economy also highlighted that BBVA Research had indicated that Andalucía would be one of the four regions leading national economic growth as early as 2026, with GDP growth forecast at 2.8%, exceeding the national figure of 2.6%, and that the region's economic growth for 2027 will stand in line with the national average.
"These estimates serve as an endorsement of the economic policies implemented in the region and fall within the range of forecasts made by other organisations for the region," the regional ministry stated.