Key Facts
- The Selic wager faces its first hard test this morning when October’s IPCA-15 inflation preview lands at 09:00 BRT, with consensus at 0.43% on the month and 4.73% on the year.
- Bradesco is the single stock to watch at the open after its third-quarter results landed late Thursday, with the investor call set for 10:30 BRT (9:30 a.m. in New York) in Portuguese and English.
- The last trading session before Sunday’s presidential runoff means Friday’s positioning is not about fundamentals alone, traders must decide whether to carry risk through the vote or flatten into the weekend.
- The real closed Thursday at 5.04 per dollar with the IPCA-15 print the clearest domestic catalyst for the currency and the Selic path this morning.
- The open will be read from the inflation print at 09:00 BRT, Bradesco’s call at 10:30 BRT and Wall Street’s tone after Thursday’s sell-off.
- Prediction markets Polymarket traders put Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning the 25 October runoff at 76.8% and Lula’s at 23.5%, as of 11:34 p.m. ET on Thursday, 22 October.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.7% · Lula 23.5% (US$192 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 76% · Lula 24%
As of 22 October, 11:20 pm ET (04:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Today’s Focus
Friday’s B3 session opens around one dominant question: whether October’s mid-month inflation preview, the IPCA-15, allows the Central Bank to keep easing the Selic — Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, currently at 13.75% — or forces a rethink. Economists polled expect 0.43% for the month and 4.73% for the year, a clear step down from the previous 0.70% and 4.47%
A soft print would support the dovish case for the next Copom, the central bank’s rate-setting committee, and could give Brazilian equities room to stabilise after the board’s Thursday retreat. A hot number would do the opposite, pressuring the real and hammering rate-sensitive names such as banks, retailers and homebuilders.
Bradesco is the clear corporate story. Its third-quarter results arrived after the close, and the 10:30 BRT call gives investors their first chance to test management on margins, defaults and guidance.
The political clock also matters. Sunday is the presidential runoff between Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and the final Datafolha polls show a statistical dead heat. That makes today the last fully tradeable session before a weekend gap — and many traders may choose to lighten rather than hold.
Brazil Election Data Room
Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 50.9%, Lula 49.1%
36 national polls from 20 pollsters since 4 October, updated hourly. Every poll, free to download.
What matters today. The 09:00 IPCA-15 print is the day’s pivot: it either validates the Selic easing trade or forces a repricing across Brazilian assets.
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Today’s Economic Events
9 am BRT
Brazil — IPCA mid-month CPI (Oct, MOM): consensus 0.43, previous 0.7
9 am BRT
Brazil — IPCA mid-month CPI (Oct, YOY): consensus 4.73, previous 4.47
9 am BRT
Mexico — Economic Activity (Aug, MOM): consensus 0.3, previous 0.8
9 am BRT
Chile — Producer Price Index (Sep, YOY): consensus 26, previous 23.6
9 am BRT
Mexico — Economic Activity (Aug, YOY): consensus 3.1, previous 3.4
4:15 am BRT
France — S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct): consensus 50.5, previous 50.6
4:15 am BRT
France — S&P Global Services PMI (Oct): consensus 50.7, previous 51.2
4:15 am BRT
France — S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct): consensus 50.5, previous 51.1
4:30 am BRT
Germany — S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct): consensus 53.3, previous 53.8
4:30 am BRT
Germany — S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct): consensus 53.5, previous 53.9
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 204,120 | -1.15% |
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,663 | -1.21% |
| USD/BRL | 5.0443 | +0.40% |
Source: market close, 22 October 2026.
01 The setup in one read
The day before Brazil’s runoff election is almost never quiet, and this Friday is no exception. Two things matter at the open: the 09:00 BRT IPCA-15 inflation preview, and Bradesco’s third-quarter earnings call at 10:30 BRT.
The IPCA-15 is the mid-month gauge of consumer prices. A reading near the 0.43% consensus would give the Central Bank room to keep cutting the Selic, Brazil’s benchmark rate, which currently sits at 13.75%.
Bradesco, one of Brazil’s largest private banks, reported after Thursday’s close. Its call this morning gives money managers the first crack at asking whether credit quality is holding up.
And the election looms over all of it. Sunday’s runoff between Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is too close to call, with Datafolha showing the two men statistically tied in valid votes.
Assessment — Inflation, not election rhetoric, drives the open MEDIUM
The weight of evidence points to a market that wants to believe in further Selic cuts, but needs the IPCA-15 to cooperate. The consensus 0.43% monthly print would mark a meaningful slowdown from the prior 0.70%, and with the annual rate expected at 4.73% the Central Bank would retain room to ease. The risk is asymmetric: a hotter number would do more damage than a soft one would help, simply because the market appears to have positioned for the dovish path.
The variable to watch through the morning is the USD/BRL’s first reaction to the inflation data, and then the tone of Bradesco’s call — both will tell you whether local investors are buying this dip or bracing for more.
02 Where Brazil is set to open
| Instrument | Last close | Indicated | Watch today |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa — Brazil’s benchmark share index | As in the market board above | — | 09:00 IPCA-15, Bradesco call |
| USD/BRL — Brazilian reais per US dollar | As in the market board above | — | Inflation print and rate expectations |
| Bradesco BBDC4 | — | — | Q3 call at 10:30 BRT |
| Rate-sensitive stocks — retailers, homebuilders, banks | — | — | IPCA-15 and Selic path |
Pre-market futures levels were not yet available when this report was written, so the inflation print is the first guide to the open. The board above shows both the Ibovespa and the real under pressure in the last session, leaving the street with less conviction about the open than usual.
The first clear signal will arrive right at 09:00 BRT with the inflation print. Bradesco’s call at 10:30 BRT is the stock-specific catalyst, especially for the financial-heavy Brazilian index.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live BoardInside: market breadth, the sector heatmap, currencies & rates, the Latin America scoreboard and the full instrument board.
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
B3 · pre-open setup
Oct 23, 2026 · 00:38
Ibovespa · benchmark
204,120.12 -1.15%
L 167,142day rangeH 168,310
+21.85% over 12 months
Market breadth · 33 names
52% advancing
17 ▲ advancing16 declining ▼
Currencies, rates & key inputs
USD / BRL
5.16
+0.01%
EUR / BRL
5.95
+1.01%
Selic rate
14.00%
·
Brent crude
88.88
-0.03%
Iron ore
161.91
·
Sector heatmap · average move today
Materials
+1.58%
SUZB3, KLABIN
Mining
+1.16%
VALE3, CSNA3, GGBR4
Other
+0.76%
BRENT, WTI, IRON ORE, GOLD
Industrials
+0.20%
WEGE3, RENT3
Financials
-0.10%
ITUB4, BBDC4, BBAS3, B3SA3
Energy
-0.12%
PETR4, PRIO3
Consumer Staples
-0.25%
SLCE3, ABEV3
Utilities
-1.38%
ENEV3
Consumer Disc.
-1.98%
AZZA3, LREN3
Latin America scoreboard
IndexLastTodayStrength
IbovespaBrazil 204,120.12 -1.15%
S&P/BMV IPCMexico 69,370.40 -1.25%
S&P IPSAChile 10,780.31 -1.88%
S&P MERVALArgentina 3,017,221 —
MSCI COLCAPColombia 2,528.42 -1.25%
BVL S&P PerúPeru 59,561.23 -4.26%
Full instrument board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 204,120.12 | -1.15% | +21.85% | 206,495.23 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
Largest moves today
CORN 480.50 +10.02%
COFFEE 317.25 -5.51%
WHEAT 655.00 +3.93%
BEEF 223.60 -3.93%
SOY 1,184 +3.20%
COCOA 5,719 +3.18%
CATTLE 339.10 -3.16%
AZZA3 15.89 -2.63%
The session read
The Ibovespa eased 1.15%, with breadth positive — 17 of 33 names higher. Materials led, while Consumer Disc. lagged.
03 On the B3 radar today — the inflation test and Bradesco
| Item | When | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| October IPCA-15 inflation preview | 09:00 BRT | Direct read on whether Selic cuts can continue; consensus 0.43% m/m and 4.73% y/y |
| Bradesco Q3 results call | 10:30 BRT | First chance to question management after Thursday’s results release |
| US S&P Global PMIs | 10:45 BRT | External dollar and rate impulse that can move Brazilian assets |
| CFTC BRL speculative positions | 16:30 BRT | Shows how global funds are positioned in the real ahead of the vote |
| Ex-dividends and other corporate events | — | None confirmed for today |
The day’s calendar is unusually front-loaded. By 11:00 BRT the market will have absorbed the two most important domestic signals — inflation and Bradesco’s management commentary — and the rest of the session will be about positioning for the weekend and Sunday’s vote.
The late-day CFTC data on speculative positioning in the real is a lagging but telling indicator: it shows how global hedge funds were positioned before the inflation data and the election.
04 Copom and the macro backdrop
The Selic sits at 13.75% after the Central Bank began easing from 15% in March, most recently by 0.25 percentage point at its 16 September meeting. That easing cycle supports Brazilian equities, and the IPCA-15 is the fuel gauge.
In the United States, initial jobless claims fell to 194,000 against a forecast of 200,000. Continuing jobless claims rose to 1,728,000 (forecast 1,720,000), and the four-week average eased to 197.75 thousand (forecast 200 thousand), pointing to a firm labour market (RT economic calendar, RT). Such data feeds into expectations for US interest rates, which in turn affect the real.
A print at or below the 0.43% monthly estimate would keep the dovish case alive. The annual rate is expected to rise to 4.73% from 4.47%.
The risk to the trade is a hot print. If the monthly number comes in above, say, 0.50%, traders will start to question whether the Selic can keep falling at the current pace.
That would hit rate-sensitive shares hardest: banks, retailers, homebuilders and carmakers — the stocks most sensitive to interest rates.
05 Corporate stories to watch today
Bradesco is the day’s headline corporate event. The bank reported a recurring net profit of R$7.1 billion (about US$1.4 billion at RT’s 5.04 reais per dollar), up 14.6% on a year earlier, and the 10:30 BRT call will reveal how management sees credit costs.
Brazilian banks are watching credit quality as interest rates stay high. Bradesco’s call is the first signpost for how the sector is managing it.
Large liquid names such as Vale, Petrobras and Itaú are the stocks global money often uses to express a view on Brazil. Their flow will show how foreign funds are thinking about the weekend gap.
No other verified major corporate events are scheduled for today. No ex-dividend dates are confirmed for today, so attention will concentrate on the inflation print and Bradesco.
06 The levels to watch at the open
Watch the real’s first reaction to the IPCA-15 print. A move toward the 5.00 level against the dollar on a soft number would signal conviction that the Selic easing continues; a push back above 5.05 would show the market is getting nervous.
For the Ibovespa, the psychologically important 204,000 area from the board is the first line. If the index opens above it and holds, dip-buyers are taking the election risk in stride.
Bradesco’s preferred shares, BBDC4, will be the clearest single-stock read. A bounce after the earnings call would support the banks; a slide would suggest the market is not convinced by the quarter.
But the real level to watch is time, not price: with Sunday’s runoff a coin toss, the last 90 minutes of trading may matter more than the first hour.
07 What to watch
- IPCA-15 inflation print: The 09:00 BRT number is the day’s pivot — soft validates the Selic easing trade, hot reprices it
- Bradesco Q3 call and share reaction: First bank to report this cycle; BBDC4’s move after 10:30 BRT is the sector’s signal
- USD/BRL’s first reaction to inflation: A decisive move in the real sets the tone for the whole Brazilian risk complex
- Weekend positioning before Sunday’s runoff: Thin volumes and last-hour flows may be driven by fear of the election gap, not fundamentals
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What Prediction Markets Say
Traders on Polymarket, a prediction market where people bet real money, put Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning the 25 October runoff at 76.8 percent and Lula’s at 23.5 percent at 11:34 p.m. ET on Thursday, 22 October. About US$192.3 million had been traded on that market.
Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the United States by the CFTC, the federal derivatives regulator, showed 76 percent for Flávio and 24 percent for Lula at the same time. These prices are bets by traders, not polls, and they can move within minutes of a debate or a new survey. The official result will come from Brazil’s electoral court, the TSE.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the IPCA-15 and why does it matter today?
It is Brazil’s mid-month consumer-price preview, released by the statistics agency IBGE. Today’s October reading tests whether the Central Bank can keep cutting the Selic, its benchmark rate.
Who is reporting earnings today?
Bradesco, one of Brazil’s largest private banks, released third-quarter results after Thursday’s close and holds its investor call at 10:30 BRT (9:30 a.m. in New York).
What is at stake in Sunday’s election?
The presidential runoff between Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, with final Datafolha polls showing a statistical tie. Today is the last tradeable session before the vote.
Where can I find today’s market levels?
The board embedded in this article shows the last settled prices for the Ibovespa, USD/BRL and other regional markets. Pre-market futures levels were not available when this report was written.
Market data: RT. Economic calendar: RT economic calendar (RT).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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