To get an Arizona perspective on the Cyclones’ visit to Tucson, we spoke with Brian Pedersen of Arizona Desert Swarm for insight into the Wildcats as well as a guess on the final score.
1. Arizona enters this game 5-1 overall (2-1 Big 12), marking their best six-game start since 2014. What is the perspective on Head Coach Brent Brennan’s overall trajectory in Year 3?
Considering our mentions at halftime of his first game in 2024 were calling for his firing, things have certainly gotten better for him.
Brennan was hired in late January after Jedd Fisch jumped to Washington, and that first offseason was more about keeping most of the returners from leaving than actually filling holes and it showed in going 4-8 despite having Noah Fifita and future 1st round pick Tetairoa McMillan. He changed both coordinators after that first season, bringing in Seth Doege to run the offense and elevating Danny Gonzales to DC and also had to to address specific player needs, and the result was nine wins. That got him a contract extension and he’s followed that up with the best start in 12 years and a national ranking.
2. Noah Fifita is now Arizona’s all-time leader in both passing yards (10,939) and passing touchdowns (89). How do you view his progression this season, especially maintaining a 73.3% completion rate (3rd in FBS)?
Fifita is putting up those numbers despite having injuries at receiver and tight end, with his best wideout Tre Spivey done for the season and the other two main starters likely out again this week, plus the tight end. He has shown trust in all of the options, and this being his second year working in Doege’s system has made him even better than before. When his UA career is over they’ll start figuring out where to put the statue outside Casino Del Sol Stadium.
3. With wide receiver Tré Spivey out for the season with a broken foot, breakout player Isaiah Mizell stepped up with 183 yards and two touchdowns against West Virginia. How confident are you in this younger receiving core sustaining production?
All offseason Fifita and the coaching staff talked about the depth in the receiver room and the injuries have shown that’s true. Mizell isn’t the only one that can do that, Brandon Phelps has proven to be a big-bodied target that can play slot or outside, while freshman Caleb Smith is a burner. Another freshman, RJ Mosley, is waiting for his chance to have a breakout game while veteran Rodney Gallagher is a reliable option as well.
But more than anything it’s about Fifita and his ability to find the right guy. Against West Virginia he checked to a slant to Mizell, against a blitz, that resulted in a 72-yard catch-and-run TD.
4. Arizona ranks 4th in the nation in 3rd-down conversions (55.6%). What schematically makes this offense so difficult to get off the field on money downs?
Again, it all starts with Fifita. He is 38 of 49 on 3rd down and a lot of that has to do with his ability to get outside the pocket and throw on the run. Additionally, the run game somehow averages more on 3rd down (4.84 YPC) than overall (4.54).
5. Arizona’s red zone defense ranks 4th nationally at 64.7%—a massive leap from 83.3% last season. What structural changes made by DC Danny Gonzales have driven this dramatic improvement?
The improvement in the run defense has really stood out inside the 20, as opponents are averaging only 2.5 yards per carry in the red zone. That’s the product of having massive depth in the front seven, keeping the best guys fresh for the plays that matter most. I think there’s also something to opponents feeling they can’t settle for field goals knowing that Fifita and the offense can score quickly, so teams are taking more chances and it’s resulted in more empty possessions.
6. The Wildcats average 3.17 sacks per game (6th in FBS) with 15 different players registering a sack. Is this pass rush driven by individual playmakers or aggressive blitz schemes?
Almost every coach Arizona has faced has referred to Gonzales as the most blitz-happy DC they’ve faced, but he says he doesn’t really blitz much. It’s kind of in the middle, with pressure coming from so many different areas and guys that look like they’re coming backing off while others fly in later. This approach is a committee one, though Cooper Blomstrom and Chase Kennedy are the main aggressors off the edge and Tre Smith is the guy taking on double teams in the backfield.
A warning: if you see three or more Wildcats holding hands a few yards behind the line of scrimmage (Red Rover!) be prepared for some funky stuff.
7. What is the single biggest key or x-factor for Arizona in this game, and what is your final score prediction?
I don’t think Iowa State has enough offensive firepower to win a shootout, but a lower-scoring game could work against Arizona if that’s the result of offensive mistakes. There could also be a little bit of looking ahead to next week at Texas Tech.
Arizona should win, though, and I’m going with 31-20 Wildcats.