Tajikistan’s economy is forecast to grow by 6.6% in 2026, below the projected rates for Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan but well above the global average of 2.6%, according to a new report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), published on October 9.
The Trade and Development Report 2026 projects economic growth of 8.8% in Kyrgyzstan and 7.9% in Uzbekistan, compared with 6.6% in Tajikistan.
Tajikistan’s projected growth rate is 2.2 percentage points below Kyrgyzstan’s and 1.3 percentage points below Uzbekistan’s.
Despite the slower pace, the forecast for Tajikistan remains significantly higher than the expected global average.
How does UNCTAD’s forecast compare with other estimates?
Forecasts for Tajikistan’s economic growth in 2026 vary among the government and international financial institutions.
The Tajik government expects the economy to expand by 8.5%. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) projects growth of 8.3%, while the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts 7.9%.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) expects growth of 7.3%, compared with 6.5% projected by the World Bank and 6% by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
UNCTAD’s estimate of 6.6% is 1.9 percentage points below the government’s forecast, close to the World Bank’s projection and slightly above the IMF’s estimate.
As Asia-Plus has previously reported, differences between government and international forecasts reflect variations in calculation methods and assumptions about economic conditions.
The government takes into account expected results from public investment programs, industrial development, and energy and infrastructure projects. International organizations also assess external risks, including economic conditions in Tajikistan’s trading partners, migrant remittances, global commodity prices and the cost of imports.
Global growth expected to slow
UNCTAD forecasts that global economic growth will slow to 2.6% in 2026, down from 2.9% in 2025. Developing economies are expected to grow by an average of 4%, compared with 4.7% a year earlier.
Despite the slowdown, global trade in goods and services, measured in real terms, is projected to increase by around 4%.
Asia is expected to remain the main driver of global growth, accounting for 59% of the total in 2026, according to UNCTAD.
The organization projects economic growth of 7.3% in India, 7% in Mongolia, 5.2% in Indonesia, 4.5% in China and 7.8% in Vietnam.
UNCTAD warns that geopolitical tensions, rising energy prices and shifts in international trade continue to weigh on the global economic outlook. Developing countries also face challenges in accessing technology, financing and high-growth segments of international markets.
Established in 1964, UNCTAD is a United Nations body to promote the economic development of countries, particularly developing economies, through trade, investment, finance and technology. Headquartered in Geneva, it conducts economic research, publishes statistics and forecasts, and provides policy recommendations to governments. Tajikistan is among its 195 member state.