One of the wildest weekends involving top-ranked teams in modern college football history has shaken up what was already an unpredictable race for the national championship.
After the dust cleared, Miami ascended to the top of the US LBM Coaches Poll, Brigham Young scored a memorable win against Notre Dame, and Alabama and Texas suffered potentially fatal conference losses — among a host of other notable results that will shape the rest of the regular season.
Let’s take a step back after the weekend that was to evaluate the state of the College Football Playoff, from the four teams that currently lead the way through the four SEC teams fading from the pack.
College Football Playoff leading contenders
No. 1 Miami (6-0), No. 2 Ohio State (6-1), No. 3 Brigham Young (6-0), No. 4 Georgia (6-1)
Here are your Power Four leaders heading into the second half of October. Miami wasn’t expected to face much of a challenge in the ACC, though a double-overtime win against Florida State impacts that opinion. Ohio State is the Big Ten frontrunner after beating Indiana, with unbeaten UCLA just behind.
The Cougars delivered one of the best wins in program history against Notre Dame. Previously a bit of an enigma, BYU now stands among the best of the best in the Bowl Subdivision. And despite a strange loss to Auburn, the Bulldogs are the closest to a sure thing in a tough SEC.
College Football Playoff contenders in good shape
No. 5 Texas Tech (6-0), No. 6 Indiana (6-1), No. 10 UCLA (6-0)
The Red Raiders’ schedule is by leaps and bounds the easiest of any playoff contender. From here, they take on Cincinnati, Arizona, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Baylor and TCU. This should leave Tech with the record to earn an at-large bid even if BYU wins the conference.
Indiana has maybe the best single loss of any team and could lose one more time and still earn an at-large berth with room to spare. UCLA is the top success story in the Power Four. Like the Red Raiders, the Bruins have a friendly second-half slate: Michigan State, Nevada, Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan and Southern California.
CFP contenders in pretty good shape
No. 7 Mississippi (5-1), No. 8 Notre Dame (6-1)
The Rebels are one of four one-loss teams in the SEC and have wins against Louisville, LSU and Missouri. But they still have Texas and Georgia on the docket and must split those two at worst to guarantee another trip to the playoff.
Notre Dame will have a heavy influence on how things play out in the Power Four. The loss in Provo puts the Fighting Irish on alert, triggering concerns that this year’s team could again be left out of the tournament because of lack of impactful wins.
Looking ahead, next month’s matchup with Miami might be the most important game of the second half. A win would put the Irish in contention for a first-round bye. A loss could be fatal.
CFP contenders climbing into position
No. 9 Utah (6-0), No. 11 Tennessee (6-1), No. 12 Kentucky (6-1)
Utah hasn’t played a team with a winning record. That will change with Houston, BYU and Arizona coming in the next four games. The Utes get the Holy War at home and could use a win there to vault to the front of the line in the Big 12.
Tennessee has rode a dominant defense into the top four of the SEC. But the offense that has lagged behind this defense could remain an issue because of a lack of experience at quarterback. The Volunteers have two big games remaining against Kentucky and LSU, both at home.
Kentucky has been a revelation under new coach Will Stein. The Wildcats end the month against Vanderbilt before a very tough November run against the Volunteers, Florida, Missouri and Louisville.
CFP contenders quietly in the race
No. 14 Iowa (5-1), No. 15 Southern California (6-1), No. 16 Houston (6-1)
Iowa has stayed under the radar but is in position to climb the rankings thanks to a second-half schedule that features just one ranked team in Northwestern. While the Hawkeyes don’t operate with much room for error, they’ll need to be taken seriously as a contender if they can steer through an upcoming three-game run against Minnesota, Wisconsin and the Wildcats.
USC is also still alive despite a loss to Oregon and unimpressive performances against Rutgers, Washington and Penn State. Based on how they’ve looked, the Trojans shouldn’t survive a brutal home stretch featuring Ohio State, Indiana and UCLA.
Houston’s credibility hinges on Saturday’s matchup with Utah. A competitive loss at Texas Tech in September isn’t a terrible thing, though that could keep the Cougars out of the conference championship game. After the Utes, they take on Cincinnati, Colorado, West Virginia and Baylor.
One-loss teams to watch
No. 19 Wake Forest (6-1), No. 20 SMU (5-1), No. 23 Northwestern (5-1), Arizona (5-1)
The ACC probably isn’t a two-bid league, though the winner between Wake and SMU on Nov. 14 could have an argument. That would require the winner finish November with one loss and then put up a competitive loss to Miami in the conference championship game. The Demon Deacons lost 33-20 to the Hurricanes last month but lost the turnover battle and committed a season-high 13 penalties for 122 yards. (Penalties have been a season-long issue.)
Northwestern is currently in the pretender camp despite losing only 29-23 to Indiana. The Wildcats have yet to beat a team with a winning record and are unlikely to survive upcoming games against Oregon, Iowa and Ohio State.
Arizona is quietly hanging around in the Big 12 and has been on a tear offensively since losing 28-17 to BYU in early September. These Wildcats control their destiny with a road date with Texas Tech on Halloween and a home game against Utah two weeks later.
Fading in the SEC
No. 13 Alabama (5-2), No. 17 LSU (5-2), No. 18 Texas (5-2), No. 21 Missouri (5-2)
Things are not looking too good for these two-loss SEC teams. The brief history of the 12-team playoff has made two losses the basic cutoff point for an at-large bid, especially if the contender doesn’t play for the conference championship.
If that holds true, several matchups involving these teams over the next few weeks will serve as playoff elimination games.
Alabama faces LSU on Nov. 7. LSU gets Texas a week later. The Longhorns have the Rebels this weekend and then Missouri on Nov. 7. And Missouri also meets Georgia on Nov. 14 and Kentucky on Nov. 21.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: State of the College Football Playoff race from teams at top and bottom of chase