Saudi Arabia's military struggle against Houthi attacks

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi militia continues to escalate its attacks on Saudi Arabia targeting energy facilities but, above all, airports. 

On Saturday, a missile attack on Riyadh's international airport killed 13 people and injured more than 300. In a second attack on Sunday, the militia killed another civilian and injured 11 others.

According to their own statements, the Houthis also attacked Saudi Arabia's airport in Dammam and two oil facilities within the past 24 hours. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud warned of the consequences for energy security and announced a strong response.

According to a report

 by the US think tank American Enterprise Institute, Saudi Arabia is targeting Houthi missile launch pads, storage facilities and other military infrastructure in Yemen. The institute quotes Saudi military spokesman Turki al-Maliki in its October 11 report as saying that 136 military targets have already been destroyed.

However, years of Saudi-led military intervention between 2015 and 2022 in Yemen have not succeeded in defeating the Houthi militia. Moreover, the Saudi-led international coalition formed in 2015 has fallen apart and the United Arab Emirates has withdrawn its troops.

The Iran-aligned Houthis not only control large parts of northern Yemen but also increasingly the western coastline from where they disrupt international shipping through the Red Sea and the strategically important Bab el-Mandeb Strait. In early September, drones also severely damaged the Saudi East-West oil pipeline. The temporary shutdown disrupted oil exports and increased risks for the energy markets.

Saudi Arabia calls on Pakistan, Turkey, the United States

For weeks, the Saudi government has been seeking allies in the fight against the Houthi militia. In late September, the United Kingdom and France pledged military support to defend Saudi infrastructure. London offered aerial refueling for Saudi fighter jets, while Paris announced it would provide troops, radar systems and air defense technology to protect the Yanbu oil terminal.

However, while the US recently refused to fight alongside Saudi Arabia against the Houthis, there could now be a change of heart in Washington, writes political analyst Osamah Al-Rawhani in a study

 by the Yemeni think tank Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies.

He notes that it remains to be seen whether this could actually lead to a successful offensive, as holding on to captured territories and launching counterattacks require significant financial resources, political commitment and the necessary resolve.

In his view, it is questionable whether Saudi Arabia would be able to muster the necessary perseverance. The kingdom could, however, change its current strategy. "If the costs of the war continue to rise, Riyadh might look for a way to withdraw from the conflict," Al-Rawhani says.

Saudi Arabia's asymmetrical war against the Houthis

Marcus Schneider, project manager at the Friedrich Ebert Foundation's Center of Expertise on Peace and Security in the Middle East and North Africa, shares a similar view.

"To eliminate the Houthis, ground troops would be needed but Riyadh has no experience with this type of warfare, especially in a foreign country," Schneider recently told DW. As such, he believes the Saudi leadership is less concerned with achieving a military victory than with reducing its vulnerability, securing the broadest possible coalition of partners and gaining political maneuvering room.

"The Houthis are well-entrenched in Yemen and can withstand considerable blows. Above all, Saudi Arabia needs stability for its Vision 2030 reform set and that is currently further away than ever," Schneider said.

He added that military asymmetry is also a key factor: Saudi Arabia possesses modern weapons and spends enormous sums on its armed forces. The Houthis, on the other hand, do not need to win a conventional war. It is enough for them to deploy missiles and drones, threaten infrastructure and disrupt shipping traffic.

Are the UAE, Pakistan, Turkey changing course?

Saudi Arabia may also be able to turn to another partner in the region: the United Arab Emirates (UAE). According to media reports, Anwar Gargash, a senior diplomatic advisor to the UAE president, spoke out in favor of closer security cooperation among the Gulf states. "We are all targets," he stated on X.

Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have undermined the security of the entire region, he notes. "It is necessary to revitalize cooperation among the Gulf states, particularly in the areas of security and defense, and to strengthen the collective security system," Gargash added.

Pakistan, which signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement in early August along with Saudi Arabia and Turkey, also initially ruled out military intervention.

According to media reports, however, the country is now said to be carrying out airstrikes on Houthi missile and drone positions — a claim that Islamabad denies. Pakistan does not intend to deploy ground troops. Turkey, another member of the Mecca Pact, rules out an offensive military operation but is providing air defense equipment.

Saudi Arabia can thus build on additional military support, according to an analysis

 by the US think tank Soufan Center. Whether this will result in an effective strategy, however, depends on whether the partners go beyond limited airstrikes and political expressions of solidarity and on whether the fragmented Yemeni government forces can better coordinate their military operations.

Meanwhile, Iran has offered to act as a mediator between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. However, given Iran's support for the Houthis and the recent attacks on Saudi Arabia, it is questionable whether Saudi Arabia will accept this offer.

Saudi Arabia and the US are allies, whereas Iran and the US have been at war since February. It is also unclear whether Tehran wields sufficient influence over the Yemeni militia to persuade it to halt the attacks.

This article was originally published in German.