How reliant is Ukraine on US support – and could Kyiv carry on without it?

It has been a bewildering period in US-Ukraine relations, after US President Donald Trump slammed his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky for failing to negotiate an end to the war and Kyiv accused Washington of withholding key military support.

Trump then sent his envoy to Norway and Russia to try to advance the peace process – but Washington walked away with only a plan to resume trilateral talks.

Meanwhile, deadly Russian attacks continue, as Ukraine raises concerns about cracks in support from the US.

The latest tensions are far from the first bout between Kyiv and Trump, who began his second term by halting aid for Ukraine’s war effort. Since then, Europe has picked up the tab and Kyiv has built up its own defense industry at a rapid pace.

So how much does Ukraine still rely on US support? And can it carry on fighting without it?

Experts say there are three broad levers of pressure the United States can apply to Kyiv – economic, military and political – as it seeks some sort of Ukrainian capitulation to end the war started by Russia.

Economic: Ukraine aid already cut

The Trump administration halted new aid packages for Ukraine at the beginning of 2025.

Before then, the US had sent at least $131.5 billion in total aid to Ukraine, which still makes it the largest single donor since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, according to data from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German think tank that tracks wartime aid to Ukraine. Some of the weapons from American manufacturers purchased during the Biden administration are still flowing to Ukraine, but many of those contracts have been fulfilled.

European Union countries and institutions as a bloc now outpace the US in their total donations, sending at least $228.5 billion since 2022, Kiel Institute data shows.

Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden have given the largest amount of military aid among the EU states. The United Kingdom and Norway have also contributed a significant chunk of military aid from outside the bloc.

Many of the donations come in the form of NATO allies purchasing US-made weapons that they then transfer to Ukraine.

But those European weapons transfers still require Pentagon authorization, giving the Trump administration another source of leverage.

Zelensky addressed Ukraine’s critical shortage of US-made Patriot interceptors on Friday, saying, “The delivery of interceptors to protect us against Russian ballistic missiles is still delayed. We are waiting for interceptors that were already agreed on, but they are still not coming.”

Last week, Ukraine ran out of Patriot interceptors – one of the few defensive weapons capable of knocking down a ballistic missile – leaving it far more vulnerable to Russian attacks.

None of the ballistic missiles that slammed Kyiv overnight into Thursday were intercepted – an indicator that Patriot stocks are still empty or critically low. Zelensky told CNN hours after that attack that Ukraine primarily needs two things from its allies at this critical moment: “Not to lift sanctions from Putin … (and) to give us better missiles.”

Given that those weapons orders are a boon for American defense companies, analysts say it’s unlikely that any slow-down or blocking of purchases would continue for a long time.

Military: Intel sharing and satellite internet

Although American financial support has collapsed, Ukraine still relies heavily on US intelligence and technology.

It has no replacement for unique American systems like the Patriot interceptors, the military-grade version of Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet called Starshield and advanced missile-warning technology.

“That is something Europeans don’t have, and they don’t have it because we (the US) have told them for the last 30 years not to develop it … because they can rely on us,” said Max Bergmann, the Russia program director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.

“We’re in a situation where America is proving to everyone in Europe that it simply can’t be relied upon,” Bergmann told CNN.

“This could be really devastating for Ukraine in the sense that it could cause tremendous economic damage, tremendous loss of civilian life, civilians leaving,” he said. “But I doubt it’s going to actually break Ukraine’s will to fight.”

Zelensky said earlier this week that on multiple occasions Ukraine had received no US intelligence warnings of ballistic strikes. That resulted in Russian missile attacks hitting without the usual air raid sirens warning residents to head to bunkers, and Ukrainian officials have said more civilians died as a result.

The US State Department and Trump himself have denied limiting intelligence sharing.

By Tuesday night, Zelensky said that the intelligence sharing with the United States “now works” again.

The country’s defense ministry said Saturday full access to Starshield has been restored though it was not immediately clear if the restoration of Starshield speeds could be felt across the country. One source on the ground in Ukraine’s Donetsk region told CNN Saturday morning that the speed in their area continued to be limited to 160 kilometers per hour.

The restrictions, which disrupt any military ordnance moving at high speeds, have hindered Ukrainian interceptor drones in defending against Russian attacks and upended Ukrainian military operations in many areas of the front line, Ukrainian officials said.

Trump and some of his top officials have denied making the call to throttle Ukraine’s use of the Starshield service, without offering any clear explanation for what had actually happened. Earlier this week, Trump said he was not involved.

Musk has denied taking unilateral action, though, saying in a social media post that “any limits on speed or usage are decided by the US military and ultimately POTUS.”

In a post on Saturday, Musk accused Ukraine’s military of violating Starlink’s terms of service by using it for “offensive drone strikes to kill people.”

“That loophole was closed last week,” he added, while maintaining that Starshield is a separate system controlled by the US government.

Musk also underscored Ukraine’s reliance on the service, saying it “remains critical to the defense of Ukraine” and claimed that if Starlink were turned off, “the Ukrainian front line would collapse immediately.”

Zelensky’s adviser Serhiy Beskrestnov disputed Musk’s accusation that Ukraine is using the commercial service to kill people, saying speed restrictions and the service’s unavailability over Russian territory made Ukraine “physically unable to use commercial Starlink” for medium- and long-range strikes into Russia.

In the short term, any further disruptions or restrictions to US-backed systems are likely to hit Ukraine incredibly hard, experts said. In the long-term, it’s likely that European allies will pump more money into developing their own systems to help Ukraine.

“I think the Ukrainians probably didn’t think that the United States would stoop this low, would betray it this much, because this isn’t really an act of charity that the United States is doing. … This is a service that Ukraine is spending money on,” Bergmann said of Kyiv’s Starshield contract and Patriot interceptor purchases.

“What the administration is doing actually has far larger ramifications for the basic reliability of the US as a technology and defense supplier,” Bergmann added.

Political: Giving hope to Putin

The falling-out between the US and Ukraine also has wider geopolitical ramifications, analysts said, and could end up being a gift to the Kremlin’s war effort.

It comes after a number of controversial moves by the Trump administration this month, including waiving new sanctions on Russia before they could kick in and striking a deal to allow Russia to export diesel. Meanwhile, the Kremlin has so far not budged on its maximalist demands to end the war.

Washington’s willingness to place unprecedented pressure on Kyiv “gives Russia a certain hope that if they continue fighting this war, eventually the European resolve will also fade away,” said Natia Seskuria, a senior research fellow on Russia and Eurasia at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a UK-based defense think tank.

John Lough, head of international partnerships at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre, had a similar view.

“I think the Russians must feel quite pleased with themselves at the moment with the strain all this recent activity is putting on Europe, by getting Trump to pressurize Ukraine, break the sanctions regime and not follow through with the Lindsey Graham bill,” he told CNN. “It’s just accentuating the fact that Europe and the United States are not aligned.”

Trump has directly tied the waiving of sanctions to the release of detained American Stephen Hubbard, despite stating earlier that the US gave Moscow “nothing in exchange” for his freedom.

Experts said some of the tension – particularly on issues related to diesel, with Trump blaming Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries for soaring prices rather than the Iran war – may dissipate after the US midterms. But the problem of high gas prices and the unpopularity of the Iran war are here to stay for the remainder of Trump’s presidency, Lough argued.

Lough said that Ukraine’s efforts to continue attacks on Russian oil refineries have been like “a red rag to a bull” for Trump. “It makes Ukraine the easy target if you’re trying to deflect responsibility for what’s happened with Iran.”

CNN’s Becky Pinnington contributed to this report.

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