Expatriates workers are not being pushed out of the UAE and Gulf, but the standard they must meet to get hired is rising, according to a senior executive at one of the region’s workforce solutions firms.
Pedro Lacerda, senior vice president of Tasc Outsourcing, said nationalisation programmes across the UAE and wider GCC are changing the workforce mix, but not in the way many expatriates fear.
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“The bigger change is that the bar for expatriate talent is going up,” he said.
The UAE and other Gulf countries have launched nationalisation programmes to increase participation of nationals in the labour force, especially in the private sector.
Saudi Arabia’s Nitaqat system sets quotas for Saudi hiring, while Oman’s Omanisation and Kuwait’s Kuwaitisation impose similar targets. The UAE’s Emiratisation initiative requires private firms with 50 or more employees to raise skilled Emirati headcount by two per cent annually, with penalties for non-compliance.
Pedro Lacerda
Qatar and Bahrain pursue comparable strategies through training and wage subsidies. These policies will ease unemployment among citizens and diversify economies beyond oil.
The rapid rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has sparked global concern about its impact on jobs, with millions of workers fearing automation could replace their roles. While AI promises greater productivity and efficiency, experts warn that routine jobs face growing risks, highlighting the urgent need for reskilling, education and workforce adaptation.
Will expat workforce shrink?
Not necessarily, Lacerda said.
“If GCC economies keep expanding at their current pace, the absolute number of expatriates could continue to grow, even as more citizens enter the private sector. The real question over the next decade is therefore not whether the GCC will need expatriates. It is what kind of expatriates it will need,” he said.
Tasc Outsourcing pointed to the UAE and Saudi Arabia, where fast-growing sectors such as technology, AI, healthcare, advanced manufacturing, tourism, financial services, logistics, energy and major infrastructure projects are generating demand that no single talent pool could meet alone.
Lacerda expects international hiring to focus increasingly on specialist capabilities, overseas experience and skills that are scarce locally.
‘expat upgrade cycle'
As UAE and GCC nationals gain experience across more functions, Lacerda said, companies will become pickier about where they recruit internationally. “An expatriate hire will need to bring something extra, such as specialist expertise, knowledge of another market or industry, or the ability to help build capabilities locally.”
He calls this an “expat upgrade cycle”. Hiring someone simply because a skill was historically sourced from overseas will become harder to justify.
The result, he said, will be a more blended workforce: “strong national talent at its core, complemented by international expertise where it adds clear value.”
Lacerda summed up the shift as a change in emphasis. The workforce debate has long centred on localisation, he said, and the next phase will be about specialisation.
“The GCC is not moving towards a future without expatriates,” he said. “It is moving towards a future where expatriates will increasingly need to demonstrate why their expertise needs to be hired internationally.”