Former time trial world champion and Tour de France podium finisher Tom Dumoulin believes that the 2027 parcours heavily favours Remco Evenepoel, going as far as to state that “The only way to beat Pogačar is through time trial kilometres."
Speaking to NOS, Dumoulin outlined his reaction to the 2027 route after organisers ASO officially presented it in Paris on Thursday. "I personally think it’s great that they’re starting in Great Britain. I started there myself back in 2014,” he said of the 2027 Grand Départ.
“It was absolutely brilliant – an incredible experience. So, it’s wonderful that they’re heading back there. But, of course, that was already known. What hadn’t been revealed yet was that this Tour includes a massive number of time-trial kilometres. That is, without a doubt, the most striking feature of this route, especially considering the trend we’ve seen in recent years, where Grand Tour courses have featured very few time-trial kilometres."
The former Visma-Lease a Bike rider, who won the 2017 World Championships in the discipline, would undoubtedly have benefited from such a course during his time competing at the Tour, between 2013 and 2020. His debut participation in 2013 featured the longest distance raced against the clock (90km) prior to next year's 71km of time trial efforts. He finished in second place in 2018, behind overall winner Geraint Thomas, in a year with 66.5km of time trials.
Dumoulin, along with Remco Evenepoel and other specialists, may feel as if they are children of a bygone era, as historically, the Tour has featured far more in the way of time trial kilometres, not just in its early years, but all the way through to the 1980s and even early 2000s.
The modern trend away from long time trials arguably began in 2008, the first year to feature less than 100 kilometres against the clock since 1975. In fact, the last time there were more than 100 kilometres of time trials within one edition was in 2012, the year before Dumoulin made his Tour debut.
In 2027, the longest ITT stage - stage 7 from Blois to Chambord - still only clocks in at 38km, with a second time trial around Toulouse on stage 16 coming in at a marginally shorter 33km; but with a total of 71 kilometres against the clock, it’s the most friendly parcours to the ITT specialists since 2013.
Dumoulin doesn’t underestimate the significance of this shift to Evenepoel.
"Now, they’ve completely changed course, with roughly 70 kilometres of individual time trials in total. That certainly gets my heart racing - and I imagine it does the same for Remco Evenepoel," Dumoulin said.
He goes on to suggest that despite a lack of summit finishes, it may actually produce a more exciting race overall, particularly in the face of the daunting challenge presented by five-time winner Tadej Pogačar and his all-conquering UAE Team Emirates-XRG squad.
"In the last Tour, the outcome was effectively decided quite early on,” Dumoulin said. “I think the Tour organisers are clearly keen to find some way to keep the dominance of UAE and Pogačar in check. By designing a route that keeps things competitive until quite late in the Tour. The only way to beat Pogačar is through time trial kilometres."
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