ECLAC Cuts Bolivia Growth Forecast to 0.2%

BOLIVIA · ECONOMY

The Bolivia growth forecast from the UN regional economic body ECLAC (known in Spanish as Cepal) now stands at 0.2% for 2026, down from 0.5% in August, according to its update of Thursday 22 October 2026. Its 2027 figure fell to 0.6% from 0.8%, which leaves Bolivia tied with Chile as the slowest economy in South America.

The reading matters to US investors and lenders because it sits about 3.2 percentage points above the International Monetary Fund, which in mid-October projected a 3.0% contraction for Bolivia this year. Bolivia’s Congress approved a US$1.9 billion, 36-month IMF financing program on 18 September and the IMF board followed on 2 October, so the question of which forecast is right bears directly on that reform plan.

We explained the fuel and dollar crisis behind the numbers in Bolivia in 2026 Explained, From Fuel Crisis to IMF Deal. The same ECLAC update lifted another economy, as our report on El Salvador’s growth forecast of 4.5% shows.

What Changed in the Bolivia Growth Forecast

ECLAC’s October update cut its Bolivia growth forecast for 2026 to 0.2% from the 0.5% it published in August, and its 2027 growth to 0.6% from 0.8%, Correo del Sur reported. The commission left Bolivia’s 2025 result unchanged at a 1.6% contraction.

For Latin America and the Caribbean as a whole, ECLAC now expects 2.0% growth in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, according to coverage of the release in Correo del Sur and the Colombian outlet Eje21. Only Haiti, at minus 1.5%, and Cuba, at minus 10.3%, are forecast to contract, the Ecuadorian outlet Extra reported.

ECLAC said geopolitical tensions, disrupted logistics routes and less predictable trade policy are reshaping the environment in which regional economies operate, Correo del Sur reported. It added that these shocks raise production and import costs, which weakens household buying power and slows job creation.

How Bolivia Compares in South America

Bolivia’s 0.2% is the joint-lowest figure in South America, level with Chile, while the subregion as a whole is set to grow 2.1% this year, Correo del Sur and Prensa Digital reported from ECLAC’s table. Paraguay is at 4.5%, Peru at 3.0%, Colombia at 2.4% and Brazil at 2.1%, while Prensa Digital lists Venezuela at 6.5% as the highest on the table.

Uruguay sits at 1.0% in the same table, according to Prensa Digital of Chile and Eje21. Our report on how the IMF treated its neighbour is in IMF Cuts Chile Growth Forecast to 0.6%, which shows how far apart the institutions can be on a single country.

Why the IMF and World Bank See a Slump

In its October World Economic Outlook the IMF projects that Bolivia’s economy will shrink 3.0% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027, after a 1.6% contraction in 2025. We checked these figures in the IMF’s own published data series, and they match the numbers carried by Infobae and Correo del Sur.

That makes Bolivia the only South American economy forecast to contract in both years, according to Infobae and Correo del Sur. Infobae links the slump to falling hydrocarbon exports, depleted international reserves and shortages of dollars and fuel.

The World Bank’s regional report, published about a week before the IMF outlook, projects a 2.8% contraction in 2026 and a 1.4% contraction in 2027, Correo del Sur reported. The bank’s forecast of 1.4% growth for Mexico was described by El Financiero on 6 October as above only Bolivia, Haiti, Jamaica, Chile and Saint Lucia in the region.

By our arithmetic, ECLAC’s 0.2% for 2026 sits 3.2 percentage points above the IMF’s minus 3.0%, and its 0.6% for 2027 sits 2.1 points above the IMF’s minus 1.5%. The sources reviewed do not explain why the institutions diverge so widely on one economy.

The Reform Program Behind the Numbers

Bolivia’s Congress approved the US$1.9 billion, 36-month IMF credit on Friday 18 September with more than two-thirds of the votes in both chambers, and the IMF Executive Board approved it on Friday 2 October, enabling an immediate US$214 million disbursement, Los Tiempos reported. The IMF expects the program to mobilise about US$4 billion more from other lenders, with later payments released gradually.

In the program document, the government committed to a 2027 budget with no fuel-subsidy lines and to domestic fuel prices that cover costs from January 2027, El Deber reported. The same report says the IMF expects Bolivia to stay in recession in 2027 and to grow only 0.5% in 2028.

The government raised the diesel price 83% on 19 September, ahead of the January 2027 date first planned, El Deber reported. Our earlier coverage of the diesel price shock and union blockades is in Bolivia Diesel Price Jumps 83% and Unions Test a Blockade Ban.

What It Means for You

For US investors and lenders, the spread between ECLAC and the IMF means no single forecast should anchor a view on Bolivia. The IMF and World Bank sit close together on a deep contraction, while ECLAC’s slight growth is the outlier among the three.

Infobae lists shortages of dollars and fuel among Bolivia’s problems, and visitors and residents feel those more than any forecast. Our guide to who runs Bolivia’s economy and our What to Do in La Paz in October 2026 guide cover the practical side.

Bolivia’s weak economy also shapes its politics and security cooperation with Washington, which we followed in our report on Bolivia’s request for US help with two elite police units. Our Bolivia politics guide and the Bolivia country page explain who holds power.

What Is Not Known

ECLAC’s own release could not be opened for this article because its website blocks automated access, so its Bolivia figures rest on Correo del Sur, Eje21, Extra and Prensa Digital, which agree with one another. The IMF figures were checked in its published data series, while the World Bank figures come from Correo del Sur alone.

It is not known why ECLAC’s estimate is so far above the IMF’s and the World Bank’s, and the sources reviewed do not publish ECLAC’s method for Bolivia. The Bolivian government’s own 2026 growth forecast was not found in the coverage reviewed.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does ECLAC forecast for Bolivia’s growth?

ECLAC’s Bolivia growth forecast is 0.2% in 2026 and 0.6% in 2027, down from 0.5% and 0.8% in August. That ties Bolivia with Chile as the slowest economy in South America.

What does the IMF forecast for Bolivia?

The IMF projects that Bolivia’s economy will shrink 3.0% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027. It would be the only South American economy to contract in both years.

Why do the forecasts differ so much?

The sources reviewed do not explain the gap, which is 3.2 percentage points for 2026 on our arithmetic. ECLAC’s method for Bolivia was not published in the coverage found.

What is the US$1.9 billion IMF program?

It is a 36-month IMF financing program that Bolivia’s Congress approved on 18 September and the IMF board approved on 2 October, with US$214 million paid out first. Bolivia committed to a 2027 budget without fuel-subsidy lines and to fuel prices that cover costs from January 2027.

What does this mean for US readers?

US investors and lenders should treat any single Bolivia forecast with care because the institutions disagree so widely. Travellers should plan for possible fuel and dollar shortages, which Infobae lists among the country’s problems.

Sources: Correo del Sur, 22 October 2026; Eje21, 22 October 2026; Extra, 22 October 2026; Prensa Digital, 22 October 2026; IMF World Economic Outlook data series, October 2026; Correo del Sur, 14 October 2026; Infobae, 14 October 2026; El Financiero, 6 October 2026; Los Tiempos, 2 October 2026; El Deber, 8 October 2026.

Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error

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