The world is moving in the right direction towards relying less on fossil fuels and more on renewable energy, thereby cutting the planet-warming emissions that are causing more frequent and intense extreme weather all over Europe.
But we must move much faster and invest far more in cutting carbon emissions, according to a major new report released today by the United Nations Environment Programme.
The report lays bare the chasm between rhetoric and action when it comes to tackling global warming, and the challenge facing political leaders at November's COP31 climate summit.
Global commitments to cut planet-heating emissions are falling far short of the climate goals set out in the Paris Agreement and put the world on course for 2.6C warming this century. But there is still hope.
The report looks at a ‘lowest possible’ 1.5°C overshoot scenario, in which peak warming is limited to 1.7-1.8°C.
To get onto this pathway, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would have to be cut by 18 per cent by 2030, 45 per cent by 2035 and 69 per cent by 2040, relative to 2025 levels. Large-scale removals of CO2 from the atmosphere will be required to return to or below 1.5°C.
Current policies will lead us to 2.8C of warming
Even if countries deliver their latest climate pledges in full, global temperatures could still rise 2.6C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, says the annual Emissions Gap Report.
That would blow past the historic goal agreed in Paris: keeping warming well below 2C while striving for a safer 1.5C. Any chance of keeping to 1.5C had been "lost" due to decades of insufficient climate action, the report says.
"The world can no longer avoid overshooting the 1.5 degree limit, and the consequences are already devastating," says UN chief Antonio Guterres in a statement to launch the closely-watched report.
"Deadly floods, brutal heatwaves, raging wildfires, lost lives, crippled economies, deepening inequalities, and those least responsible are suffering first and worst."
Overall, global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 were broadly on a par with record levels in 2024, with the difference between the two years too small to call, the report says.
Carbon emissions just from burning coal, oil and gas - the main driver of climate change - rose slightly in 2025 compared to the previous year.
Guterres says deep and immediate cuts were needed to protect humanity from worsening impacts but instead "emissions remain at record levels. And national climate plans and current policies fall dangerously short".
Sticking just with current policies would see warming hit 2.8C, the report says.
Exceeding 1.5C is now inevitable
Scientists warn that every additional fraction of a degree above 1.5C increases extreme weather events and the likelihood of irreversible changes to the planet, from dying coral reefs to melting permafrost.
The world has already warmed roughly 1.4C relative to pre-industrial times and crossing 1.5C is expected in a matter of years.
The G20 accounts for three-quarters of global emissions but Guterres says "all countries, especially the big emitters, must do more" to stop heating the planet.
This latest UNEP warming outlook is worse than last year's due to the formal withdrawal of the United States from the Paris accord and upward revisions of historical emissions, says report co-author Anne Olhoff.
Emissions growth slowed down among the G20 but the US was a "major exception", it added.
Among the world's top-six emitters, preliminary data for 2025 showed emissions increases in the US, Indonesia and China and decreases in India, Russia and the European Union.
But in terms of magnitude, the US increase of 133 megatons of CO2 equivalent "far exceeded" that of any other country, driven by higher electricity demand and a rebound of coal power generation.
The next-largest increase was recorded in Turkey, which is hosting the UN climate summit in Antalya from 9-20 November.
The US is the world's second-largest polluter, behind China. US President Donald Trump has called climate change a hoax and rolled back clean energy policies while boosting fossil fuel production.
UNEP executive secretary Inger Andersen told reporters that no country was shielded from climate change and impacts were being felt "on every nation on the planet, including the US".
Less coal and lower methane emissions
The report details a scenario with a 50 per cent chance of bringing global warming back down to 1.5C by 2100.
To get there, warming must peak around 1.8C by 2050 and vast amounts of carbon dioxide would have to be removed from the atmosphere to bring temperatures down further.
Electricity generation from coal would need to fall by at least 75 per cent in 2035 relative to 2025 and be effectively phased out globally by 2040.
Methane emissions would need to be at least 25 per cent lower than 2025 levels by 2035 and at least 40 per cent lower by 2040.
"The main takeaway is simple - governments need to get on with enacting policies that cut fossil fuel use as soon as possible," says Bill Hare, CEO of global policy institute Climate Analytics.
Some climate-vulnerable developing nations have accused bigger emitters of abandoning the Paris goals and a showdown over the 1.5C target is expected at COP31.
"This is a historic failure of political leadership. The science has been clear for decades, but governments have chosen delay over action. The consequences will be measured in lives lost, not just degrees of warming," says Mohamed Adow, director of Kenya-based think tank Power Shift Africa.
Guterres agreed there was a climate "leadership gap" but said overshooting 1.5C "is not surrender".