US stock futures traded near flat levels on Monday, October 12, as investors prepared for major bank earnings and upcoming inflation reports. Oil prices recovered from earlier losses amid renewed tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty over a proposed Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire.
Dow and S&P 500 Futures Rise While Nasdaq Slips
Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 posted modest gains during Monday's premarket session. At around 7:12 a.m. ET, Dow futures gained 30 points, or 0.06%, while S&P 500 futures advanced 0.03%. Meanwhile, Nasdaq-100 futures declined 0.23% as investors assessed corporate earnings expectations and rising energy costs.
Wall Street entered the week after gains across all three major indexes. The Dow and S&P 500 recorded their second positive week in three weeks, while the Nasdaq Composite extended its winning streak to four weeks. Technology stocks supported the advance, despite concerns about higher borrowing costs and expensive stock valuations.
The current US stock market bull run also reached its fourth anniversary on Monday. However, gains have remained concentrated among large technology companies. The S&P 500 has climbed approximately 14% this year, although more than 200 companies in the index have recorded losses.
Oil Prices Rebound as Middle East Tensions Continue
Oil prices reversed earlier declines on Monday as investors followed geopolitical developments. Brent crude futures rose above USD 106 per barrel, reaching their highest level in about two weeks. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate crude traded near USD 92.65 per barrel, gaining approximately 0.9% during early trading.
The recovery followed deadly attacks on Riyadh's international airport over the weekend. President Donald Trump also said Washington was considering joining Saudi Arabia in military action against Yemen's Houthis. However, no final decision had been announced, leaving traders uncertain about further developments in the region.
Separately, Trump announced what he described as an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine. He said both countries had agreed to stop targeting each other's energy facilities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy subsequently questioned the agreement's effectiveness, saying Russia had continued its attacks.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, expressed doubts about whether the proposed arrangement would reduce energy prices.
"Any hope that Trump's deal with Putin might help bring down prices has been negated by the flare-up in the Houthi conflict," Beauchamp said.
Big Bank Earnings Set to Begin Tuesday
The third-quarter earnings season gathers pace on Tuesday, October 13, when JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo are scheduled to release results. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley will also report during the week. Investors will examine lending activity, trading revenue and how higher interest rates have affected customers and corporate borrowers. JPMorgan scheduled results for 7 a.m. ET.
According to FactSet's October 9 earnings review, analysts expect S&P 500 companies to report 29.6% profit growth from a year earlier. That would mark a third consecutive quarter with earnings growth above 25%. Bank executives' outlooks will provide additional detail on business demand, credit conditions and operating costs as companies navigate higher fuel expenses.
Inflation Reports and Federal Reserve Outlook in Focus
The September consumer price index is due Wednesday, October 14, followed by the producer price index on Thursday, October 15, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists expect headline consumer inflation of around 3.7% annually, while core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is forecast at approximately 2.5%. Retail sales data are also expected this week.
Investors will use the reports to assess the Federal Reserve's next interest-rate decision. Futures pricing indicated a roughly 19% probability of an October rate increase. The US Treasury market remains closed on Monday for the Columbus Day holiday, after long-term yields reached multi-decade highs earlier this month.
Meanwhile, fewer than half of S&P 500 members trade above their 200-day moving averages, reflecting uneven performance beneath the index's gains.
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