Why Running Is Nowhere Near Man Utd’s Biggest Problem for Michael Carrick

“The reality is they’re not running enough,” an exasperated Gary Neville seethed after watching Manchester United toil to a 1–1 draw with Tottenham Hotspur on Saturday.

In the world of soccer punditry, where immediate, clipable reactions are the currency in trade, it can be easy to get sucked into hurried opinions. United were clearly the worse side for large swathes of their home clash with the club that started the weekend at the foot of the Premier League table. The buzz of boos at Old Trafford had scarcely faded when Neville was pushed for an explanation. Anyone could be forgiven for leaning upon the statistic that jumped off the page.

Spurs collectively outran their hosts by 2.9 miles despite playing the final 12 minutes with 10 men. That is a chasm of kilometers across just an hour and a half of action and helpfully played in to the idea that United are “not showing enough tenacity, determination and fighting spirit,” to use the intangibles to which Neville turned.

This is a stick with which United have been beaten in the past. Erik ten Hag was so incensed by his side’s inferior running stats after a 4–0 defeat to Brentford in 2022 that he made his players come in on their day off and make up the difference on the training ground’s track.

It’s obvious that United have plenty of issues—this is the club’s worst start in 40 years—but, to offer a shred of defense for Michael Carrick, the team’s odometer is hardly a cause for concern.

Man Utd’s Dire (and Distracting) Running Stats

Data collated by FotMob’s Opta Vision tracking via Simon Brundish. Correct as of Oct. 12.

Why Running Stats Aren’t So Important

“Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted.”

Albert Einstein

Soccer is a fiendishly hard sport to quantify, so whenever an easy number arises which chimes with pre-existing beliefs there is a queue of people waiting to jump upon it. That’s why possession statistics became so popular at the turn of the last decade, with everyone—both in and out of the sport—drawing the straight line between Spain having a lot of the ball and winning every international trophy.

Arsenal are the defending Premier League champions, favorites to retain that title and lead the league for total distance covered thus far this season. One thing must lead to the other, right?

Yet, take a look at who sits second in those running stats: Fulham, the side at the foot of the actual table. Manchester City, who boast a perfect record through six games, rank 18th for total distance covered, two spots below the much maligned United.

The graph above plots this season’s running stats against each team’s points total. Do you see a pattern? You shouldn’t, because there isn’t one.

This trend holds under far more stringent scrutiny. The CIES Football Observatory used data from 7,855 matches across 31 leagues to see if total distance covered offered any clue about a team’s actual performance. The conclusion was a resounding no.

“At team level, we examined the correlation between the average number of points obtained per match over the season and the average values for distances covered, both in total and in high intensity, with the hypothesis that teams running more have a greater chance of winning,” the study wrote. “No significant link was uncovered.”

What Are Man Utd’s Real Problems?

The Serie A cult icon manager Zdeněk Zeman had a great line for most occasions, invariably punctuated by an impossible long drag on a perennially lit cigarette. “It’s not how much you run,” he once mused through a cloud of smoke, “it’s how well you run.”

United’s issue isn’t that they don’t run enough, it’s that they aren’t running in the right places.

Only Arsenal and (curiously) Bournemouth have conceded fewer shots in the Premier League this season than Manchester United. However, the Red Devils have shipped nine goals while giving up the highest average quality of chance. This problem has many fathers—set pieces and individual blunders on and off the ball cannot be overlooked—but United are regularly struggling to get their press right.

Carrick came into this season with the aim of building upon last term’s success which had followed the pattern set by every marginally competent Sir Alex Ferguson successor; sit back and hit opponents on the counter. Teams aren’t always going to come onto United and Bruno Fernandes can only be relied upon to thread the eye of a needle so many times each game, so Carrick had to come up with a new way of threatening.

Pressing, when done well, can help a team attack and defend; penning the opposition back while creating chances to strike against a muddled rearguard after a high turnover. However, pressing is a lot harder than simply chasing after the ball. It requires painstaking coordination across all 11 players, with preplanned routines of which player to target and what triggers should set the whole team running together.

United are still mastering the technique which often leaves them exposed, creating the sort of space that Spurs exploited on Saturday.

Brighton, as they ruthlessly proved against Arsenal last month, are the best pressing team in the Premier League if not beyond. Yet, they rank a middling 10th for total distance covered in the Premier League this season. Running is not a statistic defined by quantity, but quality. United are lacking in both departments.