Northern Sea Route Transits Surpass 2025 Total as Arctic Shipping Gains Momentum

Cargo volumes rise as tanker, bulk carrier and container traffic expand, with 2026 transits potentially reaching 150.

The number of commercial transit voyages through Russia’s Northern Sea Route (NSR) surpassed the full-year 2025 total by the end of September, putting Arctic shipping on course for another record season.

The Centre for High North Logistics (CHNL) identified 104 confirmed transit voyages through Sept. 30, compared with 103 during the entire 2025 navigation season and 97 in 2024. Estimated transit cargo reached 3.7 million metric tons, up 15% from 3.2 million tons for all of 2025.

The combined deadweight tonnage of vessels completing transits reached approximately 7.8 million tons, 26% higher than the 6.2 million tons recorded in 2025, according to CHNL’s analysis of AIS data from MarineTraffic by Kpler.

The center estimates that the final 2026 total could approach 150 transits and exceed 4.5 million tons of cargo. Those figures remain provisional: as of Sept. 30, another 45 potential voyages were either underway or within the NSR area and could still qualify as completed transits.

Tankers remained the largest cargo segment, with 22 eastbound voyages carrying an estimated 2.1 million tons, primarily crude oil. Murmansk was the main departure point, followed by Primorsk and Ust-Luga, highlighting the route’s role in moving Russian oil from Baltic ports toward Asian markets.

Bulk carriers also recorded substantial activity. Thirteen eastbound voyages carried an estimated 1.1 million tons of cargo, while 27 westbound voyages reflected a significant repositioning of vessels toward the Baltic, Murmansk and other western destinations. The pattern underscores how the NSR serves not only as a cargo corridor but also as a seasonal route for moving commercial tonnage between operating regions.

Container shipping offered another indication of the route’s evolving use. CHNL recorded 13 container ship transits by the end of September, including voyages between Asian and European ports that did not originate or terminate in Russia. Four international Asia-Europe transits had been completed, compared with just one during the entire 2025 season.

Among them, the container ships Panstar Acro and Dubai Tower reached the United Kingdom from South Korea and China, respectively, while Riyadh Mukaab sailed from China to Felixstowe. The bulk carrier Nan Xin 27 completed a voyage from China to Klaipeda, Lithuania. Although still a small share of total NSR traffic, these voyages demonstrate growing interest in using the Arctic as an alternative Asia-Europe corridor.

Ice conditions shaped the season’s development. During the first half of August, significant traffic diverted north of the Severnaya Zemlya archipelago, bypassing the conventional route through the Vilkitsky Strait. Conditions improved later in August, allowing traffic to return toward the traditional passage as open water expanded along the route. By early September, a more continuous open-water corridor had developed across much of the NSR.

The late-season conditions were more favorable for continued navigation than in 2024 and 2025, when ice formation ended the navigation period early. Open-water conditions persisted beyond Sept. 30 this year, although seasonal freeze-up was expected to progressively restrict vessels without ice-class capabilities from mid-October onward.