BRAZIL · ELECTION DAY · VOTE ABROAD
Published Sunday, 25 October, 6:45 a.m. ET · Source: Brasil de Fato, from ballot-box reports (unofficial)
Brazilians in mainland China voted for President Lula over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by 375 votes to 134 in Sunday’s presidential runoff, according to Brasil de Fato’s count of ballot-box reports. The count is unofficial until the electoral court confirms it.
Key Facts
Brazil Election Data Room
Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 51.0%, Lula 49.0%
45 national polls from 21 pollsters since 4 October, updated hourly. Every poll, free to download.
- —Result Lula 375 votes (73.7% of valid votes), Flávio Bolsonaro 134 (26.3%) among Brazilians voting in mainland China.
- —Cities Lula won Beijing 85.1%, Shanghai 73.4% and Guangzhou 59.3% of valid votes.
- —Turnout 532 of 1,503 registered voters took part (35.4%), up from 432 (28.8%) on Sunday 4 October.
- —Australia UOL reports Lula also won in Australia with more votes than in the first round; we have not confirmed the figures.
- —Scale About 919,000 Brazilians can vote abroad, roughly 0.6% of the 158.7 million voters.
- —Official count The electoral court publishes results from 5 p.m. in Brasília (4 p.m. ET) on Sunday 25 October.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro 78.8% and Lula 21.5% (6:30 a.m. ET on Sunday 25 October). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 79% and Kalshi at 80% (Lula: 22% and 20%), as of 25 October, 6:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- —Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
Brazilian voters in China backed Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, with 73.7% of valid votes in the Brazil election 2026 runoff, against 26.3% for Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro. Brasil de Fato, a Brazilian news site, added up the ballot-box reports that polling sections post when voting ends, at 5 p.m. local time, or 5 a.m. ET.
UOL, a Brazilian news portal, says in its Sunday headline that Lula won in Australia and China with more votes than in the first round. Brazilians abroad are only about 0.6% of the electorate, so this is not a forecast; see our Brazil election polls page and the Brazil election odds page.
In Plain English
- Runoff: a second round between the two leading candidates, held because nobody won more than half the valid votes on Sunday 4 October.
- Lula: Brazil’s president and the candidate of the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT).
- Flávio Bolsonaro: a senator for Rio de Janeiro state and the candidate of the conservative Liberal Party (PL); his father, Jair Bolsonaro, was president from 2019 to 2022.
- Ballot-box report: the tally each voting machine prints when its polls close; the electoral court (TSE) later publishes official results.
What Mainland China Voted
Lula received 375 votes and Flávio Bolsonaro 134 in mainland China, which is 73.7% against 26.3% of 509 valid votes. Of 1,503 registered voters, 532 took part (35.4%), compared with 432 (28.8%) in the first round on Sunday 4 October.
Lula’s count rose from 268 votes in the first round to 375 in the runoff, according to Brasil de Fato. Turnout also rose by about seven percentage points between the two rounds.
City by City
Beijing was Lula’s strongest city, with 126 votes to 22 (85.1% of valid votes). Shanghai gave him 182 votes to 66 (73.4%).
Guangzhou was the closest, with 67 votes for Lula and 46 for Flávio Bolsonaro (59.3%). The three city totals add up to the national figure of 375 to 134.
What About Australia and New Zealand
UOL’s headline says Lula won in Australia, home to Brazilian polling places in Sydney and Canberra, with more votes than in the first round. The Rio Times could not confirm Australian vote counts from a second source, so we do not publish them yet.
Our earlier report on Wellington, New Zealand, found Lula ahead there by 418 votes to 101: New Zealand Brazilians Vote 80.5% for Lula. Each overseas city counts its own ballot-box reports, and totals will keep changing through Sunday.
What It Means for You
About 265,000 Brazilians in 11 US cities can vote, the largest overseas bloc, and their polls close between 6 p.m. and 9 p.m. in Brasília on Sunday. Read 265,000 Brazilians in the US Can Vote Sunday for the city list.
Brazilian and US stock markets are closed on Sunday, so the first market reaction to the national result comes on Monday 26 October. A count of 532 voters in China is too small to move markets.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a prediction market, traders gave Flávio Bolsonaro 78.8% and Lula 21.5% for winning the presidency at 6:30 a.m. ET on Sunday 25 October. The Brazil Presidential Election market has drawn about US$197 million in trading.
These prices are bets, not polls and not results, and the China count is only 532 voters. Live prices are shown below.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 21.5% (US$197 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 80% · Lula 20%
As of 25 October, 6:20 am ET (10:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The figures come from one news site’s tally of ballot-box reports, and the electoral court has not published them. The Australian vote counts and the totals from Japan, Europe and the Americas are not yet confirmed.
It is not known how overseas turnout will end, because most polls abroad had not closed when this was written. No national result exists until polls in Brazil close at 5 p.m. in Brasília (4 p.m. ET).
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the Brazil vote in China?
Lula won among Brazilians in mainland China with 375 votes (73.7% of valid votes) against 134 for Flávio Bolsonaro, according to Brasil de Fato’s count of ballot-box reports. The figures are unofficial and cover only voters in China.
Did Lula win in Australia too?
UOL reports that Lula won in Australia with more votes than in the first round. The Rio Times has not confirmed the Australian figures, and the electoral court has not published them.
Are these official results?
No. They are ballot-box reports posted when polls closed, and the electoral court (TSE) publishes official results from 5 p.m. in Brasília (4 p.m. ET).
Does the overseas vote predict the national result?
No, because Brazilians abroad are about 0.6% of voters and lean differently by country. Only 532 people voted in mainland China.
How many Brazilians can vote abroad?
The electoral court counted 918,876 registered voters abroad in mid-September, about 0.6% of the 158.7 million electorate.
Sources: Brasil de Fato, Lula volta a vencer na China, 25 October 2026, UOL, votação no exterior, 25 October 2026, TSE, voting abroad, Polymarket, Brazil Presidential Election. Opened on Sunday 25 October 2026. Figures are unofficial.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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