The Bears’ 31-7 loss to the Packers had almost everything Chicago wanted to forget. Tyson Bagent was benched after two interceptions. Case Keenum entered and added an interception and a fumble. The offense turned the ball over five times, while Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love piled up 367 passing yards.
But hidden inside the mess was an absurd statistical coincidence involving a division rival.
Chicago’s two quarterbacks somehow recreated J.J. McCarthy’s two worst stat lines from his time with the Vikings — in the very same game.
Bagent finished Sunday’s loss at Lambeau Field 12-of-21 passing for 87 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. Those numbers exactly match McCarthy’s line from Minnesota’s 23-6 loss to Green Bay at Lambeau Field last season.
Keenum then replaced Bagent in the fourth quarter and finished 11-of-19 for 108 yards, no touchdowns and one interception. That is identical to McCarthy’s stat line against the Giants on Dec. 21, 2025, when he suffered a fractured hand and exited at halftime.
It is an almost impossible coincidence.
Never seen anything like itigami.
— QBgami (@QBgami) October 11, 2026
Per our model, the odds of 2 QBs on the same team matching a shared QB's stat lines in the same game (and at these exact numbers relative to the probability of the set as a whole) is roughly 1 in 416.7 million. https://t.co/n2gIQEiotZ
According to the QBgami database, the odds of two quarterbacks from the same team matching two separate lines from another quarterback in one game are roughly 1 in 416.7 million. For perspective, those odds are longer than the 1-in-292.2-million chance of winning a Powerball jackpot.
And the oddity becomes even more surreal when the two Bears quarterbacks are combined. Bagent and Keenum completed 23 of 40 passes for 195 yards, zero touchdowns and three interceptions. Across those two McCarthy games, the Vikings quarterback completed 21 of 33 passes for 195 yards, zero touchdowns and three interceptions.
The total yardage, touchdown count and interception count were exactly the same. Chicago somehow produced the complete J.J. McCarthy experience in a single afternoon.
Of course, the comparison is more amusing than meaningful. McCarthy’s games came under very different circumstances, including the hand injury that cut short his outing against the Giants. He also took eight sacks across those six quarters, while the Packers recorded four sacks against Bagent and Keenum combined Sunday.
Still, the numbers capture how ugly the Bears’ quarterback play was against Green Bay. The Vikings moved on from McCarthy early in his third season, and only his second if one accounts for the torn meniscus that cost him his rookie campaign. He appeared in 10 games for Minnesota.
Bagent began the day as Chicago’s starter, hoping to build on a solid showing against the Jets the previous week. Instead, he struggled to find a rhythm from the opening drives. His first interception helped set up a Packers touchdown, and his second ended his afternoon late in the third quarter. Bears coach Ben Johnson explained that he made the move because Chicago “just wanted a little spark.”
Keenum provided brief movement after Zavion Thomas’ 61-yard kickoff return put the Bears in Green Bay territory. He completed back-to-back passes to Luther Burden III and drove the offense near the goal line. Then came the interception in the end zone.
The veteran later lost a fumble, sealing a day in which neither backup quarterback could provide an answer. Chicago finished with only 246 total yards and saw its two-game winning streak disappear in the rivalry’s most lopsided result of the Ben Johnson era.
For Bears fans, there is little comfort in an improbable statistical connection to McCarthy.
But it does add a bizarre footnote to an already miserable afternoon. Bagent’s line was McCarthy’s Packers nightmare. Keenum’s was McCarthy’s injury-shortened Giants game. Together, they reached the same 195-yard, zero-touchdown, three-interception total.
The Bears entered Week 5 believing their quarterback depth was a strength. They left Lambeau Field with a humiliating loss, an unsettled backup hierarchy and one of the strangest QB stat coincidences the NFL has produced.
Sometimes football offers no logical explanation. Sometimes it delivers two J.J. McCarthy games at once.
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