How the House landscape is evolving: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

We’ve detailed in recent weeks how the Senate map has shifted in the final stretch of the midterm campaign. In today’s edition, Ben Kamisar digs into how the House landscape is changing. Plus, Andrea Mitchell examines the latest dilemma facing Ukraine.

— Adam Wollner

Republicans shift funds in the battle for the House

By Ben Kamisar

Facing a stormy political forecast, Republican groups are making hard choices about which candidates may get left out in the rain.

Millions of dollars in GOP ad reservations have been cut in the last few days in a pair of battleground districts represented by Tom Kean Jr. of New Jersey and Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa, according to AdImpact, an ad tracking service.

Meanwhile, Republican groups are also pulling some resources from races in which they had hoped to put the pressure on Democratic lawmakers in competitive districts. Instead, they’ve been pouring money elsewhere, including in open seats or districts where Republican incumbents now appear locked in tougher contests.

The GOP is still looking to press its big-money advantage across the House map. But more and more, it’s about playing defense in Republican-held seats — or even getting an extra boost in districts the party redrew ahead of the midterms — as places President Donald Trump won by around 10 percentage points in 2024 haven’t proved to be easy terrain.

Kean had always faced tough re-election prospects in a seat Trump carried by just over 1 point two years ago. His district, in the New York City media market, is also one of the most expensive in the country for advertising. But Kean never fully regained his footing after a four-month disappearance from public view, which he later revealed was because he sought treatment for depression.

Miller-Meeks is also no stranger to tough races, having won in 2020 by just six votes. But Iowa is looking unusually difficult for Republicans this year, as the state faced outsized impacts from tariffs and the Iran war.

A source familiar with Republican outside groups’ spending strategy told NBC News that the money cut from Miller-Meeks’ district would be reallocated to Iowa’s 2nd and 3rd districts, where the GOP is also playing defense.

Read more →

Trump’s latest moves leave Ukraine on the defensive

Analysis by Andrea Mitchell

Facing midterm headwinds in usually reliably Republican farm states fueled in large part by the escalating cost of critical diesel oil, President Donald Trump shocked Ukraine and its European allies by lifting sanctions on Russian diesel exports Friday. He proclaimed that would boost the global diesel supply, although energy experts said Russian refineries weren’t up to processing the fuel and Russia couldn’t export it all.

Senators from both parties immediately objected that permitting Russian President Vladimir Putin to resume diesel exports would be illegal under 2022 congressionally mandated sanctions. It also violates recent legislation Trump had just signed into law as a memorial to the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. Ukraine and its supporters were aghast that it would help Putin bail out his collapsing economy just as the European Union was about to announce increased economic pressure to get him to agree to a ceasefire.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy challenged Trump’s gift to Putin. In an outburst reminiscent of his infamous Oval Office harangue against Zelenskyy, Trump blamed him for a war that Putin had started and said he was now prolonging it, instead of acknowledging Putin’s refusal to negotiate. He also said Ukraine needs a new president.

Significantly, Elon Musk, whose SpaceX Starlink satellite terminals are critical to Ukraine’s defense against Russian missiles and drones, said on X, “Zelenskyy has gone too far.”

Multiple reports say U.S. negotiators warned Ukrainian officials at meetings in Miami on Friday that the U.S. could cut off intelligence, as well as the American weapons manufacturing supply line European allies had created for Ukraine.

Suddenly Monday, Ukraine reported what officials called a “technical glitch” that was slowing down Starlink so its drones couldn’t combat five Russian ballistic missiles. Yesterday, there was another interruption — perhaps caused by bad weather, a Ukrainian official surmised to NBC News. Others were suggesting it was not likely to be a coincidence. Zelenskyy posted that Ukraine was hit by a major Russian attack and received no intelligence warning from its “partners.” Asked whether the U.S. had cut off intelligence, Trump said the U.S. was still sharing with Ukraine.

But while he was in London today to brief British Prime Minister Andy Burnham on the growing crisis, Zelenskyy cited wave after wave of drones — 124 overnight Tuesday and 145 more during the day — with no warning from the U.S. or reliable satellite intelligence from Starlink. NBC News reported that Ukrainian officials say SpaceX has imposed new limitations on some Starlink services and has asked the U.S. for clarification.

Retiring Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., told Musk on X, “please tell me these overnight disruptions to Starlink terminals in Ukraine were unintended — that @SpaceX is doing everything it can to fix a temporary glitch. I’m confident this does not reflect a change in SpaceX policy because if so, intentionally degrading Ukraine’s ability to defend itself might be construed as aiding and abetting a mass murderer. Can you confirm that’s not SpaceX’s intent?”

He went on to write: “Supporting Ukrainian sovereignty— or at the very least, allowing for it — should not be a gray area for the U.S. government or for American corporations.”

Musk, the largest known single contributor to Republican midterm campaigns, also controls the critical satellite source in that and other war zones. The Pentagon has ultimate authority over how it is deployed.

That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.

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