Jonatan Vseviov has a realistic chance of becoming Estonia's next prime minister, with SDE having played the strongest card of any party recruiting new political talent, ERR foreign policy journalist Mirko Ojakivi said.
According to Ojakivi, Vseviov's announcement that he was joining the Social Democrats had a distinctly American feel, with supporters standing behind him as he outlined his political ambitions.
While the presentation may have unsettled some voters, particularly at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump is not especially popular, Ojakivi believes Estonians have become increasingly accustomed to American-style political campaigning.
Political parties are increasingly adopting sharper positions than they actually hold to attract attention, making more dramatic appearances and delivering their messages more forcefully, he said.
Nevertheless, Ojakivi acknowledged that Vseviov's presentation may have struck some voters as inappropriate for a Social Democratic politician, given its resemblance to Trump's political style.
A more fundamental question, however, is whether Vseviov can connect with the Social Democrats' traditional electorate.
Ojakivi said politicians he has spoken to have pointed to Vseviov's potential difficulty appealing to the kind of ordinary voter once associated with former Social Democratic leader Ivari Padar, a demographic that has long since drifted away from the party.
"Put simply, the central question is whether Jonatan Vseviov can see the farm beyond the forest," Ojakivi said.
The Social Democrats' decision to introduce prominent new figures well ahead of the next elections also raises questions about timing. However, Ojakivi said the party is in a different position from the Center Party and Isamaa, which have long occupied the top two places in the Institute for Societal Studies and Norstat's party ratings.
"The Social Democrats need to catch up," he said.
Ojakivi noted that parties also commission their own opinion polls and that, according to his information, some surveys already suggest the Social Democrats are approaching the level of support enjoyed by the Center Party and Isamaa.
The party's recent moves are aimed at ensuring it is among the top three contenders when the election campaign begins in earnest, he said.
The goal is to establish the three leading parties as the main competitors for the top positions, leaving the others in a chasing pack.
Vseviov could therefore become prime minister, Ojakivi said, although competition for the position is fierce, with several other potential contenders.
He also highlighted a broader trend in Estonian politics, noting that political parties have repeatedly had to look beyond their own ranks for suitable candidates for senior positions.
Whether for the presidency, the defense minister's position or now the Social Democrats' potential candidate for prime minister, politicians have increasingly turned to senior civil servants rather than established political figures, Ojakivi said.
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