Although Likud publicly claims that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc will win at least 61 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, citing internal polls that reportedly support that projection, conversations with party officials suggest a more modest target is being discussed behind closed doors: 55 to 56 seats. Such a result could be enough to form a blocking bloc and prevent Netanyahu's political opponents from forming a government.
If Netanyahu's bloc wins 55 to 56 seats, his opponents could struggle to assemble a governing coalition. In that scenario, Likud officials believe the party would either push for another election or attempt to recruit a coalition partner from the opposing camp. According to the officials, former prime minister Naftali Bennett is the only figure who might agree to such an arrangement.
The officials, who are familiar with Likud's efforts to mobilize voters, some having previously helped oversee those operations, stressed that this remains a political assessment being discussed privately within the party. They believe that if Netanyahu's bloc wins 55 to 56 seats, his opponents would need broad support from the Arab parties to form a government. Support from Ra'am alone, they say, would not necessarily be enough.
Such an outcome could allow Netanyahu to block his rivals from taking power, even if he fails to secure the 61 seats needed to form a government himself. According to Likud officials, Netanyahu's main priority would be to prevent his opponents from forming a government, even if he cannot establish one of his own.
Likud officials see Bennett as potential coalition partner, without Lapid
Likud officials also believe Netanyahu would explore the possibility of bringing a partner from the opposing political camp into his coalition.
"If we manage to secure another partner from the change bloc, it can only be Bennett, without Lapid, of course," a right-wing source said.
"Let's remember that Bennett has already gone back on political commitments in the past: After declaring that he would not form a government with Yair Lapid, he formed a government with him. Therefore, there is reason to believe that he might do it again, moving from one camp to another," the source added.
Likud officials believe another election could hurt Bennett politically, potentially making an agreement with Netanyahu a more attractive option. The scenario they envision would involve Bennett joining a Netanyahu-led coalition without Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid.
However, the officials stressed that no talks have taken place between Netanyahu's representatives and Bennett or his associates.
Another election could weaken Gadi Eisenkot's standing as a leading candidate
Likud officials also believe another election could weaken Gadi Eisenkot's standing as a leading candidate for prime minister within the bloc opposed to Netanyahu if his camp fails to form a government.
One official warned that such an outcome could effectively end Eisenkot's prospects of leading the bloc.
"This will finish Eisenkot as the leader of the bloc."