The Chicago Cubs never settled into an identity in 2026. The Cubs' offense was one of the best in baseball in terms of run production but routinely struggled to produce in key moments. The pitching suffered injuries to important arms in the bullpen and rotation, but the entire group seemed to lack swing-and-miss stuff.
Craig Counsell's Cubs did play excellent defense, leading the league in defensive runs saved and outs above average in 2026. And of course, Pete Crow-Armstrong had an MVP-caliber season. But it wasn't enough for the Cubs to find sustainable success.
On May 8th, the Cubs had a 27-12 record following two separate 10-game winning streaks to start the season. The Cubs would fall to 34-34 before starting another run, going 35-16 from June 11th to August 12th, improving to 70-50. They'd finish the year with a 19-23 record and land the 2nd Wild Card spot with 89 wins.
The Cubs essentially had only two strong runs during the season, one of which was fueled by Crow-Armstrong turning into an MVP contender. But during this winning portions of the year, it felt like that version of the Cubs could win a title, or at least a playoff series.
The good news for the Cubs is that they have a lot of payroll flexibility this offseason to address their needs. However, this is considered a weaker free agency class, and their farm system doesn't have an Owen Caissie or Jefferson Rojas to trade.
With all that said, let's try to pinpoint the three most likely reasons why the Cubs fell apart this season and how they can avoid those pitfalls for next season.
Cubs Need More Swing and Miss
The Cubs allowed 231 home runs this season, the most in the National League with only the Athletics (247) topping them. The Cubs at different points this season had three starters who were in the bottom 16 of home runs allowed, with Shota Imanaga tied for 2nd allowing 35 long balls. Jameson Taillon allowed 25 of his 27 home runs in a Cubs uniform, while Kevin Gausman gave up 11 of his 26 home runs with Chicago this year.
But it wasn't just their starters, as the Cubs bullpen ranked 25th in home runs allowed this season, with Caleb Thielbar and Jacob Webb each allowing double-digit long balls.
Injuries factor into all of this, of course. The Cubs once again relied on the likes of Colin Rea and Javier Assad to provide real innings in their rotation instead of depth from the bullpen or in a spot start. Daniel Palencia being both hurt and then ineffective forced Jacob Webb into the closer role for the Cubs, a clear miscast.
But what I think these issues really come down to is the Cubs' low strikeout numbers and their pitchers lacking velocity. As a team, the Cubs ranked 25th in strikeouts this season and are one of 10 teams with an exit velocity of 89 mph or higher. At 92.8 mph, the Cubs were tied with the Red Sox, Nationals, and Blue Jays for the lowest average fastball velocity in the league this year.
The Cubs' pitchers don't fool hitters consistently, and with the best defense in baseball, you don't always have to. The Cubs' pitchers were able to work around traffic on the bases by leaning into their defense, with a 75.7% left-on-base percentage this year (2nd in the league).
Still, when a team relies on contact for outs, there is always a chance a ball lands in play or leaves the park entirely. The Cubs didn't have enough elite arms with high velocity to generate swings and misses consistently, and this is what led to them leading the National League in home runs.
Runners on base numbers can't be ignored
The Cubs offense wasn't the problem this season, leading the league in runs (850), RBI (804), slugging percentage (.428), wRC+ (114) and fWAR (37.8). However, they did lead the league in runners left on base this year. The Cubs offense particularly struggled with runners in scoring position in 2026, ranking 18th in slugging and 21st in batting average in RISP situations.
Left on base isn't an inherently bad stat and typically some of the best offenses lead the league in the category because they're consistently creating scoring chances. The Brewers and Dodgers were both top four teams in left on base this year and also were in the top four of runs scored along with the Cubs.
The Cubs were second behind the Brewers in on-base percentage this season and were tied for the league-lead in walk percentage, so the Cubs had no issue getting runners on base. They trailed only the Brewers in plate appearances and ranked 4th in hits with runners on, so it's not like they were an unproductive team. But it felt like the Cubs simply couldn't get that big hit in key moments.
They did lead the league in RISP home runs with 58 but taking you see a dip to 21st when taking a look at their doubles. Their league-leading slugging percentage drops from .428 to .408 with runners on base, ranking 18th this season. And despite taking the 2nd most walks in RISP situations, they also had the 3rd most strikeouts with RISP.
For whatever reason, the Cubs offense got worse with runners on base. Of course, that makes sense on a basic baseball level – the opposing team is working harder to prevent runs in these situations. But the Cubs' production dropped from an elite offense to a sub-par one with runners on base. That has to be fixed.
The Cubs need pitchers they can lean on
The Chicago Cubs went into 2026 hoping their staff ace would emerge among a collection of solid veteran arms. A combination of Cade Horton, Ben Brown, and newly acquired Edward Cabrera was hopfully going to give the Cubs the swing-and-miss stuff they lacked.
Nevertheless, Horton missed almost all of this season with Tommy John surgery on his elbow, while Ben Brown dealt with a neck injury that bothered him in 2025 as well. And Cabrera ended up being a disaster in his first season with the Cubs, posting a 5.96 ERA and a 19.8% home-run/fly-game rate in 18 games! He missed nearly two months of the season due to a hamstring and adductor strain, along with a blister he suffered later in the year.
The Cubs pitched most of the year without a clear ace, but still had hopes one would arrive. There were thoughts that top pitching prospect Jaxon Wiggins could make the jump after a promising camp with the Cubs, but he missed two months with an elbow injury and got pushed to the bullpen. There was hope that Justin Steele could return to the team by the All-Star break after recovering from elbow surgery. Despite making a handful of rehab starts, Steele's return to the Majors will be delayed to 2027.
The Cubs went out and acquired Kevin Gausman and Clay Holmes at the trade deadline. Both were clear upgrades to the current group and gave Craig Counsell real innings at the end of the year. However, Gausman wasn't 100% healthy in his lone playoff start, while Holmes never appeared in either of the Cubs' Wild Card games in San Diego.
Neither had the impact of a front-end starter the Cubs were lacking all season, and it shows when you see Ben Brown lead the team in bWAR despite not pitching after June 19th. Brown's 2.2 bWAR and Shota Imanaga's 2.0 were the two best on the team this season. Last season, it was Matthew Boyd at 2.6 bWAR, with Cade Horton behind him at 2.1 bWAR.
Over the last two years, the Cubs' pitching plan has been undone by injuries early on. While they've managed to work around those injuries, adding a bona fide ace to the rotation and a clear-cut closer to the bullpen would give their pitching the stability the Cubs have been searching for.
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