The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is closely watching developments in Andhra Pradesh where former chief minister and YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) chief Jagan Mohan Reddy’s statement expressing support for the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) and seeking electoral reforms is being perceived as an indication that the once “friendly party” could be moving towards the opposition bloc.
Reddy on Sunday said the appointment of election commissioners should be independent of the government in power. He also expressed regret over his party’s support for the Chief Election Commissioner and Other Election Commissioners (Appointment, Conditions of Service and Term of Office) Act, 2023, which governs the appointment of Election Commissioners in 2023.
“Approving that, I am regretting it now,” Jagan said, while addressing the media.
The former CM also expressed concerns over the SIR and said 4.6 million fake voters had been identified across the country, and the government had decided to proceed with the elections using an unrevised electoral roll. He alleged that the delimitation of divisions and wards had been carried out to favour the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition.
Earlier this week, Jagan, in a post on X, said, “A proactive approach always yields better results than a reactive stance. The system has a flaw that needs to be corrected. Trust in the electoral process must be restored. The arrests of Saurav Das and Ashutosh Ranka do not solve anything; it only aggravates the situation. I empathise with @SauravDassss and @AshutoshRanka.”
The tweet was seen as an endorsement of the CJP, which is part of the ongoing demonstrations in the Capital against chief election commissioner Gyanesh Kumar, for what they allege are irregularities in the conduct of the Special Intensive Revision (SIR).
Senior BJP party leaders who spoke on condition of anonymity said the YSRCP joining the INDIA bloc will pave the way for a political shift not just in the state, but also in the neighbouring Telangana.
The possible realignment also comes at a time when the BJP is scouting for support for the passage of the Constitution (One Hundred and Thirty First Amendment) Bill, 2026 and the Delimitation Bill, which seeks to redraw boundaries based on the 2011 census and is necessary for implementing the 33% quotas for women in legislatures.
The YSRCP has 8 MPs—four each in Rajya Sabha and the Lok Sabha. Even as it was not part of the ruling NDA, it was counted as a friendly party that supported the government on several key issues including the Citizenship Amendment Act; the abrogation of Article 370 and the farm laws.
The BJP was counting on it to support the delimitation bill as well as the Constitutional Amendment bill that requires two-third majority, even though Reddy had asked the Union government to ensure that the southern states do not lose out on seats owing to better population control measures. The party had also demanded that the government’s assurance of proportionate increase in seats for southern states should be inserted in the text of the delimitation bill.
The delimitation bill needs a simple majority for passage, which the NDA, with its numbers in both the Houses, can achieve—in the Lok Sabha, it has over 300 while the simple majority mark is 272 of 543 members; in the Rajya Sabha it has 153 of 245. But the ruling coalition falls short of 360 votes, required for the two-third majority in the Lower House and 164 required in the Upper House for the passage of the Constitutional Amendment Bill.
On the political impact of the realignment, BJP leaders said the coming together of Reddy and the Congress in Andhra Pradesh will pose a challenge to the ruling Telugu Desam Party (TDP), a key ally of the BJP-led NDA. And in Telangana too, the BJP, will have to contest against a formidable opponent.
“Of late, there have been indications that the YSRCP will join the INDIA bloc. If that were to happen then the opposition will gain support from the larger coalition of Christian and Muslim voters in AP. The percentage of Christian voters is high in AP and they support Jagan, they also have a significant presence in Telangana, which the Congress will benefit from,” said a BJP leader.
In AP, Christians are 1.37% of the electorate while Muslims are a little over 9%; in Telangana Christians are 1.27%, and Muslims are a little over 12%. “However, estimates put the percentage of Christians at 10-15% in both the states, as many practising Christians who are originally Dalits continue to identify as Hindus for reservation benefits,” said the leader.
Explaining the shift in votes, he said that if the YSRCP aligns with the Congress, the Reddys in Telangana too will shift alliance to CM Revanth Reddy. “There is a significant settler vote (voters who shifted from Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema but are registered voters in Telangana) that is crucial in 20-30 constituencies in Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) region, in places such as Gachibowli, Khammam, and Suryapet, which the Congress will gain if the realignment occurs,” the leader said.
However, a second party leader said Reddy’s statements came close on the heels of the CBI and the Enforcement Directorate (ED), which are probing cases against the former CM, moving the court to seek a daily trial.
“This is a fight for survival. The issue of vote chori that the opposition has raised has no traction on the ground here…” the second leader said.