Nuclear war and the weaponisation of artificial intelligence could threaten humanity’s survival by 2100, even as the likelihood of such catastrophes remains low, a major global health assessment warns.
The Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health has identified 17 threats over the next 75 years, ranging from catastrophic conflict and climate change to air pollution, childhood malnutrition and cuts to international aid, The Guardian reported.
The assessment warned that nuclear conflict and AI-enabled biological weapons could threaten humanity’s survival, although the risks remain low.
Nuclear war could block sunlight and trigger famine, while AI could be used to create devastating biological weapons.
An accompanying Lancet editorial warned that the scale of harm from such scenarios could amount to an apocalypse for humanity, according to The Guardian.
Other threats include antimicrobial resistance, conventional conflict, cuts to overseas aid, high alcohol consumption, high blood pressure, income inequality, low educational attainment, pandemics, obesity, poor mental health, smoking and unhealthy ageing.
The report said the commission measured each threat by estimating the healthy years of life lost to illness, disability and premature death, using current trends and alternative future scenarios. This measure is known as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).
The report said the threats interact and should be addressed together, while stressing that practical ways to reduce each risk remain available.
“Decisions made by leaders today will shape the health and wellbeing of the next generation,” said Prof Christopher Murray, commission co-chair and director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, according to The Guardian.
Ibrahim Abubakar, a commission member and UCL professor, said the assessment aimed to help policymakers understand the risks and how to reduce them.
The Guardian reported that limiting global heating to about 1.8 degrees Celsius, rather than allowing it to reach 4.4C, could prevent 1.89 billion years of healthy life from being lost. The commission also warned that a collapse or sharp reduction in international health aid could cost up to 1.5 billion DALYs before 2100, nearly 70 percent of them in sub-Saharan Africa.
The assessment found that non-communicable diseases, including obesity and poor mental health, posed major threats in higher-income regions, while low educational attainment contributed substantially to health losses in lower-income areas, cited per the report.
The authors urged governments to act before threats escalate into crises, including by investing in technological innovation and strengthening health systems.
Murray told The Guardian that the commission had initially focused on conflict, climate change and pandemics, but later identified a wider range of threats requiring greater investment in prevention and preparedness.