John Ivison: Odd couple Jason Kenney and Rachel Notley hit the road to foil Alberta separatists

Whoever suggested the unlikely political double act of Jason Kenney and Rachel Notley may have saved Canada from what Kenney called “the endless trip to the dentist of Quebec separatism.”

The two former Alberta premiers have teamed up to make the case for a united Canada in the days leading up to the province’s independence referendum on October 19 — and they are very convincing. On Tuesday, they took their vaudeville routine to a lunchtime event organized by the Edmonton Chamber of Commerce.

It is an inspired pairing, as the pollster Pollara noted. Its recent survey of Albertans showed that former prime minister Stephen Harper, Prime Minister Mark Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre are the most trusted political figures in the province.

However, Kenney and Notley are each trusted by roughly two-thirds of people in the province, and given their very different audiences, they cover a very broad political waterfront when speaking in common cause.

Kenney was frank Tuesday that he does not consider Alberta’s place in a united Canada to be assured, despite polling that suggests 70 per cent will choose to vote to remain, against an average of 22 per cent who support beginning the process to hold a binding independence referendum.

Those numbers have been pretty consistent across 10 polls since late May, with only one suggesting the separatists could break through the 30 per cent mark.

But Kenney’s point is that a low turnout would lead Canada down the path similar to Quebec’s “neverendum.”

He said a turnout of 40 per cent or below could win it for the separatist side because its backers would crawl over broken glass to cast their votes.

“We would be pushed into a wood-chipper. Talk about lack of investor confidence in the next year, marching towards an actual vote on separation. The economic consequences would be catastrophic,” he said.

The turnout at the last provincial election was 60 per cent but recent byelections have seen fewer than four out of 10 Albertans vote.

The separatists will take even a strong minority vote as a message that they’ve been “mainstreamed” and separation destigmatized, Kenney said. “That’s why turnout is so important.”

The two former premiers were careful not to revive ancient enmities, focusing on Alberta’s prosperity and the apparent momentum under a federal government “that seems to be listening to us,” in Kenney’s words.

Notley focused on the common enemy of separation.

“Under no freaking circumstances will we continue to get access to TMX (the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion) or (the proposed) Pacific Link, if we put up (an international) border between Alberta and British Columbia,” she said. “Or if we do get access, we’ll be paying a hell of a lot to get it.”

Both premiers agreed that there will be consequences after the referendum for the United Conservative Party that Kenney helped to bring together and which then rejected his handling of the COVID pandemic.

He said that when he brought the Alberta PCs and the Wildrose Party together, he included a formal declaration of its loyalty to a united Canada. “(Now), there is clearly a problem,” he said. A poll by Janet Brown Opinion Research last month found that a majority of UCP voters favour holding a binding separation referendum.

“When all this is done, there has to be a reckoning … If the primary goal is separation, it has to be done in a separatist party,” Kenney said. “In Quebec, it would be unthinkable to hold a referendum on secession without getting a mandate from the people first in a legislative election.”

Notley said the UCP should have done more homework on vetting its membership. “Perhaps it needs time in the penalty box,” said the former NDP premier.

Kenney was diplomatic in avoiding comment on provincial policies under Notley’s government, but said a “difficult decade” for Alberta was made worse by former prime minister Justin Trudeau’s federal government and its approach to resource development.

“People have legitimate residual anger about that and legitimate skepticism about whether this new government means a different course of action,” he said.

“Right now, the most important people in the province are those frustrated federalists who love Canada, who sing ‘O Canada’ at the hockey games … and who know becoming a land-locked statelet makes no sense,” he said.

It is a timely warning just days before a vote that is not decided yet.

It comes from a man who has been maligned, often unfairly, over much of his political career.

I say it with affection, but when I started covering politics Kenney was a rising hope. He is now very much the elder statesman. Unlike some rising stars who reach their political maturity with no discernible intervening period, Kenney had a consequential career as a federal government minister and provincial premier.

As such, his warning demands consideration, even from his critics.

Those who would vote remain are up against populist revivalists who are committed to a long-term project of detaching Alberta from the rest of the country. They must be met by an equal determination on the part of federalists that Alberta will not go gently.

National Post