India's Soybean Output Shrinks Despite More Sowing As Dry Spells Hit Key States

New Delhi:

India's soybean production is expected to fall in the 2026 kharif season even as the area under cultivation has increased. The decline is largely linked to losses in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Telangana, where prolonged dry spells and low soil moisture have affected the crop, according to the Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA). Higher production in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan is expected to offset much of the loss.  

SOPA's first estimate puts India's soybean production at 107.93 lakh tonnes in Kharif 2026, down 2.1 per cent from 110.26 lakh tonnes in the previous season. At the same time, the area sown has increased by nearly 5 per cent, from 112.14 lakh hectares to 117.73 lakh hectares.

The difference between the two figures points to a problem beyond how much land farmers planted. More area was brought under soybean, but this did not translate into higher output.

Telangana Accounts For The Biggest Fall

Maharashtra, one of India's main soybean-producing states, is expected to see production fall by about a third. SOPA estimates output at 34.88 lakh tonnes in 2026, compared with 52.23 lakh tonnes in 2025, a decline of 33.2 per cent.

Karnataka and Telangana are also expected to record sharp falls. Production in Karnataka is estimated to decline by 43.6 per cent, from 3.65 lakh tonnes to 2.06 lakh tonnes. In Telangana, it is expected to fall by 46.1 per cent, from 1.25 lakh tonnes to 0.68 lakh tonnes.

The decline in these three states is partly offset by gains elsewhere. Madhya Pradesh, the country's largest soybean producer in SOPA's estimate, is expected to increase production from 43.24 lakh tonnes to 57.16 lakh tonnes, a rise of 32.2 per cent. Rajasthan's output is projected to rise by 48.2 per cent, from 6.39 lakh tonnes to 9.47 lakh tonnes.

These increases help explain why the national decline is much smaller than the fall in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Telangana.

Drought Conditions Across The Soybean Belt

Dry conditions are an important part of the story. SOPA has attributed the production losses in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Telangana to prolonged dry spells and inadequate soil moisture during critical stages of crop growth.  

The drought maps based on the Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) show that conditions vary across districts. 

Maharashtra's situation is reflected in the state government's drought declaration. By October 14, 2026, 305 of the state's 358 talukas had been declared drought-affected. 

Karnataka and Telangana have also reported widespread drought conditions, with the impact extending across large parts of their agricultural regions.

In Karnataka, 226 of 240 taluks had been declared drought-affected by October 15, while Telangana reported drought-like conditions in 315 of its 621 mandals as of October 17. These figures indicate widespread dry conditions, although the administrative classifications differ across the three states.