Where the Yankees’ budget stands as the offseason begins

The 2026 World Series matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays (boo!) and the Milwaukee Brewers (yay!) kicked off last night, and that can only mean one thing: the season is officially almost at a close. There are at most six games remaining, and baseball will be over after Halloween. Pretty soon, the stadium lights will dim, the locker rooms will go quite, and the hot stove will slowly begin to heat up as the winter begins.

The next few months will be even more hectic than usual. Not only will we be discussing potential free agent and trade targets, as we try to project how the Yankees might look to improve their squad for next season, we will also be following along the CBA negotiations, as Rob Manfred and the league owners attempt to engage in some ol’ fashioned robber baron-esque union busting. In order to prepare for these discussions — and to give you some good, hard data to cite when arguing with your friends — let’s take a look at where the Yankees’ payroll stands today.

Note: All guaranteed contracts are taken from Spotrac, and all arbitration estimates are taken from MLB Trade Rumors; as always, given how much more focus the Yankees seem to place on luxury tax values than how much money is actually paid out in a given year, all numbers are based on their luxury tax hit.

Guaranteed Money

The Yankees currently have seven players, including three-fifths of the starting rotation, under contract for the 2027 season, with a combined luxury tax hit of $212.4 million — more than the entire payrolls of 19 teams. Despite the large number, though, the Yankees are actually in fairly decent shape financially, at least in terms of the old rules: only three players (Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, and Max Fried) are under contract past the 2028 season, and the players who provide the least value relative to their salary (Giancarlo Stanton and Ryan McMahon) have only one year remaining. Furthermore, because of Cody Bellinger’s opt-out (represented by the asterisks), his luxury tax hit for this upcoming season is substantially higher than it will be for the final four years of the deal—assuming he does not opt out, that is—due to the way Major League Baseball calculates these things.

As a rather fun aside, with Aaron Hicks and DJ LeMahieu finally off the books, the Yankees enter this winter with no dead money for the first time in years; it is presently unclear just how long this will remain true. Indeed, Stanton and McMahon stand out as potential options for dead money in 2027 should the Yankees decide that they’d rather eat their contracts than guarantee them roster spots.

Arbitration-Eligible

MLB Trade Rumors projects the Yankees to have nine players eligible for arbitration this winter, with projected salaries ranging from $2.3 to $11 million. While we don’t yet know for sure whether the Yankees will actually tender contracts to all nine of these players — Fernando Cruz’s elbow injury and Luis Gil’s struggles (as well as his own injury history) make them likely candidates for release, while the high salaries relative to their health/production of Anthony Volpe, José Caballero, Heliot Ramos, and Clarke Schmidt might put them in at least mild jeopardy as well.

Pre-Arbitration

Technically, with no CBA signed, we do not know what the minimum salary will be for the 2027 season. We do have an upper and lower bound, though. Major League Baseball’s proposal from June pitched a minimum salary of $1 million, and MLBPA’s proposal from May advocated for a $1.5 million minimum. As such, although we don’t have concrete figures, we can nonetheless get a ballpark estimate as to how much the pre-arbitration salaries will cost.

As with the arbitration-eligible players, there’s a good chance that not everybody on this list will be tendered a contract. Punchless backup catcher Ali Sánchez and relievers Bradley Hanner, Kervin Castro, and Brendan Beck are just four players off the top of my head who should definitely not sign a one-year lease in the New York metropolitan area, at least until the non-tender deadline has passed.

Final Tally

As things currently stand, the Yankees 2027 luxury tax payroll sits somewhere between $265.1 and $273.1 million, or roughly $40 to $50 million below the Yankees’ 2026 payroll of $313 million (note: I removed player benefits and other non-payroll factors from the luxury tax equation, for the sake of consistency). While it remains to be seen how the CBA shakes out, and what the exact financial rules will be going forward, this gives us a rough estimate as to how much money the Yankees currently have at their disposal even if they aren’t looking to add to increase the team payroll in 2027.