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NBA awards won’t be voted on for months, but it seems players, their fans, and their representatives start making their case for their preferred award early into the season. In fact, by the middle of December, the buzz usually starts getting loud for the frontrunners.
In an era where odds for the awards are released in the offseason and can shape the public’s view of who the favorites are, it seems like the options for awards are shrinking.
Look at the Most Valuable Player race, for example.
Since the 2019-20 season, only four players have won league MVP: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic three times, Joel Embiid, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander twice.
Victor Wembanyama is the favorite with +180 odds, with Doncic (+425), Gilgeous-Alexander (+500), Jokic (+550), and Antetokounmpo (12/1) rounding out the top-five.
Excluding Embiid, all of those former winners have a case that likely won’t change barring a huge drop-off this season.
Jokic is an offense unto himself and makes everyone around him better. Gilgeous-Alexander is the most consistent superstar in the league, and the Thunder look like a 60-win team regardless of who shares the floor with him. Antetokounmpo, when healthy, is the most unstoppable force in the NBA.
The open question entering this season is about the current betting favorite: Will Wembanyama make another leap that pushes past the rest of the field?
Based on the history of the award, voters seem to value offense over defense, along with winning when it comes to MVP. Defensively, Wembanyama is clearly the cream of the crop (more on that shortly), but offensively, he has not ascended to the level of players like Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander yet.
There are some potential dark horse picks — Anthony Edwards (20/1), Cade Cunningham (25/1), Kawhi Leonard (150/1) — but each player has some red flags that could muddy their case.
This award feels like it’s SGA’s to lose, and while there hasn’t been a three-time winner since Larry Bird in 1986, he is the most logical preseason choice for MVP.
Wembanyama is also the odds-on favorite for Defensive Player of the Year and likely will be while he’s in the prime of his career. Players can’t shoot over him and basically run around the court in circles trying to find ways to score around. If he plays enough games, this award is his, which is why he’s -350 entering the season.
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There’s no guarantee that he’ll play enough games to make the cut, though. He barely met the criteria last season and just played an extra 22 grueling games. Teams figured out during the playoffs that the only way to slow him down is to be extra physical, which we can expect to see even more next season.
With that in mind, there are other options to eye for DPOY if you’re looking for value. Scottie Barnes is at the top of the list of value bets with a 50/1 price tag. He leveled up as a defender last season, and in the playoffs and with the addition of Kawhi Leonard, he’ll have more freedom to be disruptive all over the court.
Rookie of the Year should be a fun race with a class that was heavy with talent in the top four picks. Cameron Boozer (+300) will enter the season as the favorite ahead of Darryn Peterson (+340), Caleb Wilson (+350), AJ Dybantsa (+400), and Yaxel Lendeborg (+900).
Wilson (previously +950) and Lendeborg (previously 20/1) made the biggest jumps from draft night, but Wilson remains the best option to win this award. The Bulls actually need him to be a scorer for them to win games this season, and it’s evident from his brief showing in the preseason that he isn’t afraid to attack the rim or shoot 3-pointers off the catch.
He has the most room to grow his game among the top players in his class, and if he reaches his potential as a rookie, he’ll stand out among the group with his athleticism and highlight plays.
The Picks: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander MVP (+500, Caesars) | Scottie Barnes DPOY (50/1, bet365) | Caleb Wilson (+360, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.