Prediction markets: Polymarket gives CF Cruz Azul a 44.5% chance against CF Pachuca, and Kalshi gives Santos Laguna a 23% chance to win the Liga MX Clausura, as of October 21, 11:37 p.m. ET. Prices are bets, not polls.
The road to Montevideo narrows. Flamengo host Estudiantes at the Maracanã on Thursday night with the tie locked at 0–0 after the first leg in La Plata.
Palmeiras are through. Fluminense won 1–0 at Nubank Parque on Wednesday night, but Palmeiras took the penalty shoot-out 5–3 after the tie ended 2–2 on aggregate.
A continental final is secure. Atlético Mineiro advanced 3–2 on aggregate in the Copa Sudamericana despite a 2–0 defeat to Montevideo City Torque in Uruguay.
Today’s headlines October 22, 2026
| Event | Status | Angle |
|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras vs Fluminense | Result | Fluminense won 1–0, the tie finished 2–2 on aggregate and Palmeiras won the shoot-out 5–3 to reach the Libertadores final. |
| Atlético Mineiro vs Montevideo City Torque | Result | Atlético Mineiro lost 2–0 in Uruguay but advanced to the Sudamericana final 3–2 on aggregate. |
01
Flamengo Face Estudiantes With Final Place At Stake At Maracanã
Preview
Flamengo and Estudiantes play the most important 90 minutes of their Libertadores campaigns on Thursday night. The first leg in La Plata finished 0–0 on October 15, leaving the tie completely open.
The Maracanã second leg decides who meets Palmeiras in the final. Flamengo are unbeaten in this year’s competition, with seven wins and four draws.
Estudiantes held Flamengo to a 0–0 draw in La Plata on 15 October and created the better chances.
The prize is a place in the final at Montevideo’s Estadio Centenario on November 28. Kick-off is at 9:30pm Brasília time.
In short — Flamengo and Estudiantes restart a 0–0 tie at the Maracanã on Thursday with a place in the Libertadores final on the line.
02
Palmeiras Beat Fluminense On Penalties To Reach The Libertadores Final
Result
Fluminense won the second leg 1–0 at Nubank Parque on Wednesday night, with Hércules scoring late in the match, which levelled the tie at 2–2 on aggregate. Palmeiras scored all five of their penalties in the shoot-out and won it 5–3 after Fluminense missed their fourth attempt.
Palmeiras will meet Flamengo or Estudiantes in the final on 28 November at the Estadio Centenario in Montevideo.
In short — Palmeiras survived a 1–0 defeat to Fluminense and won the penalty shoot-out 5–3 to reach the Libertadores final.
03
Atlético Mineiro Survive Montevideo Scare To Reach South American Final
Result
Atlético Mineiro lost 2–0 to Montevideo City Torque on Wednesday night in the Copa Sudamericana semifinal second leg. The 3–0 first-leg lead proved just enough.
The Brazilian club advanced 3–2 on aggregate.
Atlético Mineiro will face Boca Juniors, who beat Vasco da Gama 3–1 at the Maracanã in the second leg after losing the first leg 1–0. The final is on 21 November at the Estadio Metropolitano in Barranquilla, Colombia.
In short — Atlético Mineiro absorbed a 2–0 defeat in Montevideo but held on to win the tie 3–2 on aggregate.
04
Montevideo City Torque Show Courage In Defeat As Continental Dream Ends
Feature
Montevideo City Torque won the second leg 2–0 on home soil but left with only pride. The Uruguayan side needed four goals after losing the first leg 3–0 in Belo Horizonte.
Kevin Silva scored in the 89th minute and Gary Kagelmacher in stoppage time, which made the scoreline respectable but not enough.
Torque had reached the Copa Sudamericana semifinals.
The defeat leaves Uruguay without a representative in the final.
In short — Montevideo City Torque won the battle but lost the war, exiting the Copa Sudamericana with a 2–0 victory and a 3–2 aggregate defeat.
What Prediction Markets Say
Implied chances from traders’ prices, as of October 21, 11:37 p.m. ET.
CF Pachuca vs. CF Cruz Azul
CF Cruz Azul 44.5% · CF Pachuca 28.5% · Draw (CF Pachuca vs. CF Cruz Azul) 26%
Polymarket · US$78,213 traded
Liga MX Clausura Champion
Santos Laguna 23% · America 22% · Cruz Azul 13%
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC) · 552,677 contracts traded
Brazil Série A: Winner
Flamengo 60.5% · Palmeiras 33% · Athletico Paranaense 0.3%
Polymarket · US$51,162 traded
Copa Libertadores: Winner
Palmeiras 50.5% · Flamengo 37.5% · Estudiantes LP 7.8%
Polymarket · US$35,826 traded
Colombia Primera A: Teams relegated (2026)
Jaguares 66.5% · Cúcuta Deportivo 9.5% · Independiente Medellín 3.2%
Polymarket · US$21,839 traded
Bolivia LFPB: Teams relegated (2026)
GV San José 78% · Real Tomayapo 39% · Bulo Bulo 14.5%
Polymarket · US$12,869 traded
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
05
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQ
Who has reached the Copa Libertadores final?
Palmeiras, who won a penalty shoot-out 5–3 against Fluminense on Wednesday after a 2–2 aggregate. Flamengo and Estudiantes are level at 0–0 after the first leg and meet at the Maracanã on Thursday at 9:30pm Brasília time.
When and where is the Copa Libertadores final?
The final is scheduled for November 28, 2026 at Estadio Centenario in Montevideo. The second finalist will be confirmed after Thursday’s Flamengo–Estudiantes match.
How did Atlético Mineiro reach the Copa Sudamericana final?
Atlético Mineiro won the first leg 3–0 in Belo Horizonte. Despite losing the return leg 2–0 to Montevideo City Torque on Wednesday, they advanced 3–2 on aggregate.
In short — Fans ask about the Libertadores semifinal scores, the November 28 final venue, and Atlético Mineiro’s Sudamericana aggregate win.
Sources: AP News – Fluminense Palmeiras, CONMEBOL – Semi-final schedule, CONMEBOL – Semifinal first legs, CONMEBOL – Sudamericana race, AFP – Palmeiras beat Fluminense
Updated: 2026-10-21T23:18:00-03:00 by Oliver Mason, Latin America sports correspondent.
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