If all countries stick to their climate plans and pledges, global warming will reach 2.1 degrees Celsius sometime this century, according to Unep’s report on the so-called emissions gap.
That is a full 0.2 degrees higher than the estimate in last year’s report. The rapid deterioration is mainly due to the US leaving the Paris Agreement, scrapping its climate goals and instead investing heavily in fossil fuels.
But the United States will not escape climate change, warns Inger Andersen.
“Trying to limit emissions helps mitigate this, and investing in resilience - whether in coastal areas, in protection against forest fires and drought, or in managing crop failures - is smart,” she says at a press conference.
The United States increased its greenhouse gas emissions last year by 132.5 million tonnes. This was mostly due to increased demand for electricity and more coal burning. The increase was higher than in any other country. China, by comparison, increased its emissions by 17.2 million tonnes, while the EU reduced its emissions by 7.7 million tonnes.
“The only way”
The 2015 Paris Agreement stated that countries would do everything they could to keep warming well below 2.0 degrees Celsius, preferably below 1.5. In the best-case scenario, warming would reach 1.7-1.8 degrees by mid-century, with a combination of emissions cuts and new technology then turning the curve back down to 1.5 degrees by the end of the century.
But that would require, first and foremost, an 18 percent reduction in emissions by 2030. That is three times more than the world’s countries have already pledged, and many major emitters will not even meet those targets.
But it is both doable and sensible, Andersen says.
It is the only way for us to return to something resembling a reality that is still largely manageable - that is, without serious consequences - and therefore it is logical.
Heading towards 2.8
With current policies, warming looks set to reach 2.8 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, according to Unep.
In a report full of curves going in the wrong direction, the expansion of renewable energy is highlighted as a positive. Compared with 2015, wind and solar power have expanded rapidly, and demand for coal and oil is lower than previously thought.
“We have 5,000 gigawatts of renewables. We need another 5,000 (by 2030), and it can be done quickly, with political leadership and courage,” Andersen says.
The UN environmental agency Unep’s research report, “Emissions Gap Report 2026”, examines the gap between the emissions cuts countries have committed to and those required to limit global warming as much as possible.
This is the 17th time UNEP has released the report, which is published ahead of the UN climate conference COP31, taking place in Antalya, Turkey, from November 9 to 20.
Global greenhouse gas emissions reached 58.4 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2025, on a par with the record-high emissions in 2024.