College football Week 8 prediction market picks back Air Force, Indiana, Iowa, BYU and Kansas State as road favorites, while Tennessee carries the strongest upset case of the week as a road underdog at South Carolina.
No. 11 Tennessee has already beaten Alabama 26-10 and lost only to Texas by three, yet it enters Columbia as a 2.5-point underdog against a South Carolina team that sat idle after a 38-19 win at Florida. All six selections are road teams.
MORE: College fantasy football Week 8 rankings: KJ Duff, Jahiem White make big jumps
Air Force over Wyoming
- Friday, October 23 at 9 p.m. ET
- Kalshi: 68% AF, Polymarket: 65% AF
Air Force (5-1, 3-1 Mountain West) owns the conference’s longest active winning streak at four games, and a win in Laramie would make the Falcons bowl eligible. Sophomore quarterback Evan Medders ran for 152 yards and three touchdowns in a 41-31 win over UNLV, when Air Force scored touchdowns on all four second-half drives and finished with 430 rushing yards.
The academy leads FBS with 325.4 rushing yards per game, and Wyoming allows 177.7 per game on the ground while ranking 118th in adjusted EPA per play on defense. Still, the Falcons have lost five straight in Laramie dating back to 2012.
Wyoming (4-3, 3-1) has won two straight since a 28-0 loss to North Dakota State, and quarterback Tyler Hughes ran for 183 yards and four touchdowns in a 41-23 win over Northern Illinois. Cowboys coach Jay Sawvel said he told players that “when we got to midseason, I expected a surge of improvement.” Air Force’s option attack should drain the clock and keep the score down.
Pick: 24-19, Air Force (Air Force -4.5, Under 45.5)
Indiana over Michigan
- Saturday, October 24 at noon ET
- Kalshi: 74% IND, 71% IND
No. 6 Indiana (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten) saw its 22-game winning streak end in a 19-15 loss to Ohio State, when receiver Nick Marsh’s left foot landed out of bounds on a potential go-ahead touchdown. Quarterback Josh Hoover threw for 296 yards, Charlie Becker caught nine passes for 165 yards, and the Hoosiers held the Buckeyes to 78 rushing yards with four sacks and two interceptions.
Michigan (4-2, 1-2) beat Penn State 21-18 after coach Kyle Whittingham benched Bryce Underwood at halftime with the Wolverines trailing 3-0. Freshman Tommy Carr led three touchdown drives, and Underwood has more turnovers (eight) than total touchdowns (seven) this season. Whittingham won’t name a starter, saying, “We’re not going to tip our hand to the opponent.”
Indiana coach Curt Cignetti said of Carr, “I would assume it would be him.” Michigan’s defense allows 256.5 yards per game, but its offense throws for just 165.7, and the line has dropped from 8.5 to 7 points.
Pick: 27-17, Indiana (Indiana -7, Over 41.5)
Iowa over Minnesota
- Saturday, October 24 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Kalshi: 74% IOWA, 71% IOWA
No. 15 Iowa (5-1, 2-1 Big Ten) lists Hank Brown and Jeremy Hecklinski as co-starters after Hecklinski completed 14 of 19 passes for 202 yards and three touchdowns in his first career start, a 41-24 win at Washington. Brown started the first five games before a shoulder injury against Ohio State.
“They’re both really good, both talented, both have won games,” Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck said. Running back Kamari Moulton leads the Big Ten with 103.8 rushing yards per game and ran for 208 at Washington, where the Hawkeyes held the Huskies to minus-3 rushing yards.
Minnesota (4-2, 2-1) runs for 96.4 yards per game against FBS opponents and lost 41-13 at Purdue before its bye. Iowa has won 10 of the last 11 meetings and five straight in Minneapolis. Fleck is 1-8 against Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz, and the spread has grown from 4.5 to 7 points.
Pick: 28-14, Iowa (Iowa -7, Over 40.5)
BYU over UCF
- Saturday, October 24 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Kalshi: 71% BYU, 70% BYU
No. 2 BYU (6-0, 3-0 Big 12) beat Notre Dame 28-24 when Bear Bachmeier hit Walker Lyons for a touchdown with 1:47 left. The defense stopped the Irish on the final play. Bachmeier threw for 224 yards, ran for two touchdowns and caught another on a double pass. The Cougars won without star running back LJ Martin.
In July, Brett McMurphy called this trip to Orlando the hardest coaching job of BYU coach Kalani Sitake’s life. UCF (3-3, 1-2) has lost two straight, including 42-28 at Oklahoma State. Keyone Jenkins has started while Alonza Barnett III recovers from injury. The Knights allow 269.4 passing yards per game.
“Offensively, it all runs through Bear,” UCF coach Scott Frost said. Frost also said his team is banged up at linebacker, which matters against a quarterback who carried the ball 13 times against Notre Dame.
Pick: 30-21, BYU (BYU -6.5, Over 43.5)
MORE: Bear Bachmeier reveals Notre Dame recruiting grudge after BYU topples No. 2 Irish
Tennessee over South Carolina
- Saturday, October 24 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Kalshi: 48% TENN, Polymarket: 47% TENN
No. 11 Tennessee (6-1, 3-1 SEC) is 2-0 with George MacIntyre starting in place of injured Faizon Brandon, and MacIntyre has thrown for 444 yards and a touchdown in wins over Arkansas and Alabama. Coach Josh Heupel hasn’t named a starter, but the Vols’ defense has carried them, allowing 15.7 points per game and ranking 15th nationally in adjusted EPA per play. South Carolina’s defense ranks 72nd.
South Carolina (3-3, 1-3) is rested after a 38-19 win at Florida, its first in Gainesville since 2014, when LaNorris Sellers accounted for five touchdowns. “For all the negativity out there this week, that was a program win,” Gamecocks coach Shane Beamer said.
Heupel said he brought up Tennessee’s 63-38 loss in Columbia in 2022 with his team Monday, and he described South Carolina as playing really well. Tennessee is unbeaten on the road this season, and its defense gives it the edge in a lower-scoring game.
Pick: 27-21, Tennessee (Tennessee +2.5, Under 50.5)
Kansas State over Arizona State
- Saturday, October 24 at 3:45 p.m. ET
- Kalshi: 62% KSU, Polymarket: 60% KSU
Kansas State (4-2, 1-2 Big 12) beat Kansas 35-24 for its first conference win despite scoring touchdowns on just 3 of 8 red-zone trips. The Wildcats convert 59.3% of their third downs, second in FBS, and run for 225.4 yards per game behind quarterback Avery Johnson and running back Joe Jackson.
“We have to fight that tooth and nail because it’s a one-week season,” Kansas State coach Collin Klein said of the week after the Kansas game.
Arizona State (3-3, 1-2) trailed 43-10 at halftime of a 53-25 loss at Texas Tech. Coach Kenny Dillingham benched Cutter Boley for Mikey Keene, who threw for 256 yards and two touchdowns in the second half. Dillingham hasn’t named a starter, and the Sun Devils are a home underdog for the first time in a year. Arizona State allows 37 points per game against FBS opponents, which supports a higher total.
Pick: 34-28, Kansas State (Kansas State -3.5, Over 56.5)
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